Image for Tony Garcia Tony Garcia - October 14, 2022

American League (AL) MVP 2022 Odds and Predictions

  • Los Angeles stars are the two favorites
  • Watch out for this power hitter above the border
  • AL Central outfielders pose good longshot odds

American League MVP Odds

Odds taken from BetMGM sportsbook

Player Odds
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees -1000
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Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels +550
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Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians +10000
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Vladimir Gurerro Jr., Toronto Blue Jays +25000
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Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros +25000
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Mvp American League

Best bets and long shots to watch

The American League MVP in four of the past eight seasons has played for the Los Angeles Angels. Three of those awards were won by Mike Trout and the most recent in 2021 was captured by Shohei Ohtani.

Can the MVP award stay in Los Angeles? We will take a look at the top five players for MVP odds, see if the value is worth backing them and then identify a few players who could be serious sleepers this season.

Favorites to Win American League MVP

Shohei Ohtani, OF/P, Los Angeles Angels (+550)

Shohei Ohtani is the odds-on favorite to repeat as the American League MVP and it’s no surprise why. He was not only one of the best hitters in the AL last season, but one of the most dominant pitchers.

His hitting stats: .257 average, .379 OBP, .965 OPS with 46 home runs and 100 RBIs.

His pitching stats: 9-2 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 130.1 innings, while striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings.

While Ohtani was quite literally the best two-way player since Babe Ruth – and doesn’t show any signs of regression – at +300 there isn’t enough juice on this bet. Odds are, the odds won’t have dropped much if at all halfway through the season and there will be more information to use. We’d wait on betting Ohtani to go back-to-back.

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

If you’d made this exact bet each of the last eight years – you would be 3-5 and have made money overall. So in that regard, betting Mike Trout always seems like a good bet at least until last year, when he missed significant time for the first time in his career, playing in just 36 games.

That said, he still had eight home runs, 18 RBIs, and a .333 avg, .466 OBP, and 1.090 OPS – pacing at his usual MVP numbers. Baseball isn’t like basketball or football – where having multiple MVP front runners takes away from one another – so don’t be alarmed by Ohtani’s place on this list.

And yes, we did say don’t bet Ohtani just yet because the juice isn’t there (and Trout’s odds are only slightly more value) people may have forgotten just how dominant Trout is, so we do like this bet now before he gets off to a hot start and the futures start coming in.

Vladimir Gurerro Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

He finished as the runner-up last season despite leading baseball in home runs (48), rus scored (123) and total bases (363). That speaks to how dominant Ohtani was last season.

But Gurerro Jr. is only just getting started and was tracking close to the triple crown for much of the season last year before finishing third in batting average (.311) and had 111 RBIs. For the record, Guerrero Jr. became just the 14th player in MLB history to finish the season with a .311/.401/.604 slash line and the first to do so before the age of 23.

Last month, the first baseman was the odds-on favorite to win the award, but has since slipped to third. That’s not concerning to us, in fact if anything, it makes it more appealing. The Toronto star was annoyed with how the voting went down last season, so don’t be surprised if he comes back with a vengeance.

Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

Take a look at those odds. 15 to 1. That’s how big of a fall off their is – or perceived fall off – between the three favorites and the next closest.

Aaron Judge is a behemoth when he’s healthy. He won the award back in 2017 and had another great season last year where he played nearly every game: he had a 6.0 WAR, batting .287, with a .373 OBP, .916 OPS, and 39 home runs and 98 RBIs.

But one issue in addition to Judge’s inconsistent health, is his vaccination status. He won’t be allowed to play in Toronto, it appears, unless he’s proven he got the shot. For most teams, that’s not that big of a concern, but by being in the same division, that’s 9-10 games he would miss automatically. In a race that should be tight, something like that could make the difference between winning and losing, so this isn’t a bet we’re going to take.

Long shot: Luis Robert (Chicago White Sox)

He was injured for much of last season and if he hadn’t been, the entire world would likely have seen just how dominant Luis Robert is. Robert finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2020 and took home a gold glove. While he missed three months (May-August) last year with an injury, his improvement was noticeable in the metrics.

He improved his batting average by more than 100 points, his strikeout and whiff rate both dropped by more than 12 percent and his OBP jumped by more than 75 points.

To get Robert, a budding superstar, at 30 to 1 odds is a tremendous value.

Long shot: Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins)

The other outfielder to watch is Byron Buxton – the No. 1 thing to watch out for (stop us if you’ve heard this before) is injuries. However, that doesn’t seem to be something Minnesota is worried about, having just given him a 7-year, $100-million deal.

However, last year Buxton missed more than 100 games last year, but still in just 61 games, slashing .306/.358/.647 with 19 home runs. Not to mention, he’s probably the best defensive center fielder in the game. He’s played in more than 100 games just one time in his career (140 games in 2017), but should he be able to be in that many contests again, he will very likely be a top-five MVP candidate and could very well take home the hardware.

Buxton is currently 45:1 – it’s worth at least a small wager to be sure.

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AUTHOR

Tony Garcia

188 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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