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Best MLB Bets Today: Upstart Midwest Teams Take on East Coast Powers

Written by: Michael Savio
Published April 12, 2024
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today 04 12 2024 Royals Michael Wacha

Friday kicks off some excellent weekend series in the MLB. Two of them stand out above the rest, and we are sharing our favorite bets for both.

First, we’ll share our predictions for tonight’s matchup between the Kansas City Royals and New York Mets. After that, we’ll dive into the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles.

We’ll be using odds from BetMGM Sportsbook for both of these bets. If you aren’t already a BetMGM user, you can earn a $1,500 First Bet Offer when you sign up using promo code WSNMGM. That means if your initial bet loses, they’ll refund your stake with Bonus Bets up to $1,500.

For more betting opportunities check our list of the best MLB betting sites and curated list of MLB promos and bonuses.

Best MLB Bets Today: Royals vs. Mets (7:10 PM EST)

Royals ML +105 (at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The Royals have started the season strong, coming off a series sweep of the Astros, where they outscored the reigning AL West champs 28-8. The Mets began the season by losing their first five but have won five of their previous seven. That run includes taking two out of three games in Atlanta against the Braves. However, only one of these hot teams will be able to keep the momentum going tonight.

We like the Royals primarily because we don’t trust the Mets. Though they are coming off a 16-4 win against the Braves, they took advantage of facing Allan Winans on the mound. The 28-year-old was called up to replace Spencer Strider but looked awful in his first start yesterday, allowing seven runs (6 earned) over five innings. That is significant because the Mets’ other four wins were all by one run. That’s not sustainable, especially when they are facing a team playing as well as the Royals.

The other reason we love this bet is the pitching matchup. The Royals will have Michael Wacha on the mound, who is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA across two starts this year. He has posted ERAs under 3.33 in the last two seasons, and the Mets lineup hasn’t seen much of him, giving him an advantage over his counterpart on the Mets.

New York will have former Yankee Luis Severino starting opposite Wacha. The 30-year-old has been very good over his career, but injuries have taken their toll. In 2023, the veteran only made 18 starts, finishing with a 4-8 record, 6.65 ERA, and 1.65 WHIP. He has been solid in 2024 but will be up against a hot Royals team that hit him hard last season.

Bet on Royals +105 at BetMGM CTA icon

Best MLB Bets Today: Brewers vs. Orioles (7:05 PM EST)

Brewers ML +100 (at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The Brewers and Orioles will meet for the first time since their blockbuster trade in the offseason. The matchup features two very impressive young offenses, both of which have been hot. We trust the Brewers' offense partly because of the pitching matchup and Christian Yelich. The former MVP is playing his best baseball since 2019, given their young lineup and the veteran presence they need. He’s led the Brewers to rank fourth in the league in batting average (.272) and third in home runs (16). As talented as the Orioles are, they have not had the same success early in 2024.

As we mentioned above, the Brewers have an advantage on the mound tonight. Ace Freddy Peralta will be on the hill, taking over the top spot in the rotation after Corbin Burnes was dealt to Baltimore. He is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA and 15 strikeouts across his first two starts of the season. Peralta was solid in his lone start against Baltimore last season, allowing two runs and striking out nine across five innings. We think he will deliver an even better state line tonight.

 The Orioles will start righty Tyler Wells opposite Peralta. The 29-year-old had the best season of his career in 2023, going 7-6 with a 3.64 across 20 starts and five appearances out of the bullpen. That success hasn’t carried over into 2024, as Wells has allowed seven runs (six earned) on 12 hits and two walks over 11 ⅓ innings. Those two starts came against the Pirates and Angels, but he’ll face a far more challenging test in Yelich and the Brewers tonight.

Bet on Brewers +100 at BetMGM CTA icon


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Michael Savio

485 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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