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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: All Pitching Props on Thursday

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published May 30, 2024
5 min read
Best MLB Prop Bets Today 2024 05 30 Jameson Taillon

Once again, Thursday leaves us with a shortened MLB schedule, including several day games. For whatever reason, all five picks we made today involve pitchers. That wasn’t done on purpose, it’s just the way things played out. Also, all but one of them is a positive bet, so we’re expecting several quality performances from starting pitchers on Thursday. Our odds for each prop bet are from DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get a no-sweat bet for their first wager up to $1,500.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Cubs vs. Brewers (1:10 PM, EST)

Jameson Taillon Under 2.5 ER (-120) at DraftKings

The Cubs have lost the last three games that Taillon has started, in part because he’s been knocked around a little. But he’s due to have a bounce-back effort in a day game against a Milwaukee lineup that he dominated earlier this month. When Taillon faced the Brew Crew on May 4, he gave up just two hits over six scoreless innings. Keep in mind he’s still rocking a 2.58 ERA and has good numbers against most of Milwaukee’s hitters. Taillon is a pitcher who should have an over/under of 1.5 ER, so if he’s getting 2.5 ER, we’ll happily take the under.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Astros vs. Mariners (4:10 PM, EST)

Logan Gilbert to Record Win (+140) at DraftKings

Gilbert has just three wins in 11 starts this year, so he’s far from a lock with this kind of bet. But the Mariners have won four in a row and have a strong 18-10 home record whereas the Astros are 10-17 on the road. With Spencer Arrighetti starting for Houston (more on him in a minute), we have a good feeling that Seattle will win this game. With Gilbert pitching at least six innings in nine of his 11 starts this year, he should leave the game with a lead and a chance to win. Don’t forget he’s pitched to a 3.06 ERA this year, making this a good spot for him to pick up a win.

Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 ER (-115) at DraftKings

With a 6.93 ERA, Arrighetti is an easy pitcher to fade, especially since we can get nearly even odds on him giving up at least three earned runs. In his eight starts, Arrighetti has allowed at least three runs five times. While he’s pitched slightly better lately, that just means the Astros are giving him more slack, allowing him more time to give up runs. It’s also worth noting that he’s been terrible on the road, going 0-4 with a 10.26 ERA. That’s another reason we expect Gilbert and the Mariners to win this game while also fading Arrighetti.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Yankees vs. Angels (9:38 PM, EST)

Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 ER (-155) at DraftKings

The Angels have lost four of their last five games and have a rather pitiful offense amidst a slew of injuries. That makes it easy to get behind Rodon, who has won four straight starts. In each of those four starts, Rodon has allowed two runs or less, including six scoreless innings in his last start against the Padres. Overall, he’s left nine of his 11 starts this year giving up two runs or less. Yet, we’re still getting decent odds for him to do it again while facing one of the weakest offensive teams in baseball.

Carlos Rodon Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-115) at DraftKings

With fewer options on a Thursday, we're going to double up on Rodon. As mentioned, the Angels are a poor offensive team, which should make it easy for Rodon to go deep into this game. All we need for this bet is for Rodon to pitch at least six innings, which is something he’s done in four straight starts and six of his last seven starts. We’re getting nearly even odds for something that has practically become a foregone conclusion for the lefty over the last few weeks. It’d be shocking to see Rodon not pitch well enough to last six innings against the Angels on Thursday.

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Bryan Zarpentine

Sports Betting Analyst & Content Specialist

Expertise:
MLB
NCAAB
NFL
Online Sports Betting
Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts
Favourite Sportsbook: BetMGM Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience:
14 years
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