Happy Friday, everyone! Why not kick off the weekend with some MLB prop bets? In an unusual twist, three of our five picks involve members of the Pirates. Perhaps that’s a good excuse to watch Paul Skenes tonight. Just for good measure, we’ve included some other non-Pirates players who also bring good value to the table.
Reynolds isn’t having a good season, batting just .210. As one of the biggest stars on the Pirates, his struggles have contributed greatly to Pittsburgh’s misery. However, he’s one of the few batters in Pittsburgh’s lineup who enjoys facing Freddy Peralta, who starts for Milwaukee on Friday. Reynolds is 12 for 31 (.387) with three extra-base hits in his career against Peralta. His bat is also showing signs of life after getting two hits. Reynolds now has at least one hit in five of his last six games, making this a good time to target him, even if the value is modest.
Cruz is one of the hitters who won’t be thrilled to face Peralta on Friday. The shortstop is 0 for 6 in his career against Peralta. While that’s not a huge sample size, it’s not surprising that a crafty pitcher like Peralta has had success against a young hitter like Cruz. In addition to his poor history when facing Peralta, Cruz is batting just .223 on the season. Before collecting a hit in back-to-back games, Cruz had a five-game hitless streak. It’s been nearly a month since Cruz has had a hit in three straight games, which is why he’s batting just .163 in May. That makes this a good time to fade him, especially against a pitcher he’s struggled against in the past.
The Pirates have lost all four games Skenes has started in May, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t pitched well. Pittsburgh’s ace owns a 2.52 ERA in May, while collecting 21 strikeouts over his last 21 innings. In his last two outings, Skenes has tamed quality offensive teams like the Mets and Phillies, so he should have a good handle on the Brewers. In his one career start against Milwaukee last season, Skenes struck out 11 over seven hitless innings, so the few Brewers who have faced him in the past have had no success whatsoever against Skenes, which is why we’ll back him to have a big game on Friday.
Mahle isn’t necessarily a high-volume strikeout pitcher. He failed to register one against the Red Sox across five innings in a start earlier this month. However, the bar is set too low against a bad White Sox team not to take a chance. After all, Mahle has been outstanding this season, rocking a 1.47 ERA. He’s also collected at least five strikeouts in two of his last four starts. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 1-6 over their last seven games, averaging close to eight strikeouts per game during that stretch, so Mahle should be able to collect at least a handful of strikeouts in this game.
If you want, feel free to sprinkle in a Suarez home run bet. The problem with that bet is that St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas has only allowed two home runs this season. Therefore, Suarez collecting over 1.5 total bases is a safer bet, especially since he’s 6 for 14 (.429) with three extra-base hits in his career against Mikolas. Even with Mikolas finding his groove and pitching well over the past month, this is a favorable matchup for Suarez. After all, he’s near the top of the majors in home runs and RBI. Suarez has gone over 1.5 total bases in five of his last eight games, showcasing plenty of power during that stretch, but also having three multi-hit games.
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