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Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props October 16

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published October 16, 2023
18 min read
Best MLB Player Props October 16

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Bases (+125 at DraftKings)

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Alvarez had a dreadful start to this series in Game 1, going 0 for 4 with three strikeouts. But that’s no reason to give up on a guy who has two multi-hit games and four home runs in five playoff games in 2023. Alvarez is capable of bouncing back quickly and is always a threat to get an extra-base hit, which is why it’s always a good idea to jump on him if he has plus value to collect over 1.5 total bases.

That’s particularly true with Nathan Eovaldi starting for Texas in Game 2. Alvarez is 8 for 11 (.727) with three doubles and a home run in his career against Eovaldi. While that’s a small sample size, those numbers are still off the charts. For whatever reason, he has owned Eovaldi and crushes the ball against him. With Houston down in the series, the Astros are going to need some big hits in Game 2, and Alvarez is always a good candidate to do just that.

Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Bases (+150 at DraftKings)

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Bregman is nearly as good as Alvarez when facing Eovaldi. Against the Texas ace, he is 8 for 19 (.421) with three doubles and a home run during his career. That means a multi-hit game or an extra-base hit are very much on the table for Bregman in Game 2. He also hits early in the lineup, so he should get an extra at-bat late in the game just in case he needs another hit to get over 1.5 total bases.

To be fair, Bregman hasn’t had a great postseason thus far. He has just one multi-hit game and one extra-base hit in five games. Those came in the same game, so Bregman has gone over 1.5 total bases just once in five games. But he was one of the few Astros to get a hit in Game 1, and given his history against Eovaldi, he has a chance to make a big impact in Game 2.

Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Hits (+120), Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160), Under 1.5 Walks (+140 at DraftKings)

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Eovaldi is an interesting case because he was dreadful late in the regular season but has been brilliant for Texas during the playoffs. He’s allowed just two runs over 13.2 innings across his two starts in October. The caveat is that Eovaldi (as mentioned with our hitter props) has horrendous numbers against several members of the Houston lineup, especially the top of the order with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s bound to give up some hits in this game, especially since he gave up at least five hits in each of his two playoff starts despite pitching well in both games.

Meanwhile, after Eovaldi gave out walks like crazy late in the season, he’s yet to allow a walk during the playoffs. The Astros aren’t quite as adept at drawing walks as the Rangers are, so it’s possible for Eovaldi to keep up his streak of not hurting himself with walks. At the same time, Eovaldi’s brilliance in the postseason thus far should afford him enough slack to get to at least four strikeouts, even if the Astros start to knock him around. Eovaldi has 15 strikeouts in 13.2 innings during the playoffs. He’s excelled at missing bats and should be able to keep it going against a tough Houston lineup. 

Franmber Valdez Over 2.5 Walks (+150), Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+125), Over 4.5 Hits (-155 at DraftKings)

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Even after a long layoff, the Texas lineup was unfazed by facing Justin Verlander in Game 1. That’s a bad sign for Valdez in Game 2, especially since the red-hot Rangers have had a chance to shake off some rust after that layoff. Keep in mind that Valdez struggled in his start against the Twins during the ALDS. He’s also been a walking machine lately and will be facing a Texas lineup that drew the third-most walks in the big leagues this year. Valdez has walked at least three batters in three consecutive starts and five of his last eight starts, so he’s likely to issue some free passes on Monday.

With a lot of walks, Valdez isn’t likely to have a long outing, especially with the Astros already trailing in the series. His over/under is at 14.5 outs, which will win unless Valdez completes five innings, something he hasn’t done in consecutive starts. Only three of the six starters Texas has faced during the playoffs have recorded at least 15 outs, so Valdez has a 50-50 shot at best, so there is value in this bet. Finally, since tossing seven hitless innings against the Tigers in late August, Valdez has allowed at least five hits in five of his last seven starts. Again, a Texas lineup that has been outstanding in the postseason should be able to collect at least a handful of hits against a guy who hasn’t been at his best lately.

Zac Gallen Under 2.5 ER (-115), Over 1.5 Walks (-160 at DraftKings)

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Gallen is facing a tough matchup against the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS, although the Diamondbacks have plenty of reason to be confident in him. He won both of his previous starts this postseason, allowing two earned runs on five hits in each start. Game 1 of the ALCS showed us that hitters might be a little rusty after an extended layoff, which should play in Gallen’s favor. He also has a solid track record against most of Philadelphia’s hitters, so this appears to be a favorable matchup that should allow him to limit the damage to two runs or less.

That being said, Gallen is being a little more careful in the playoffs and is walking batters as a result. He’s issued five walks over his 11.1 innings during the playoffs, which is why taking over 1.5 walks seems like a safe bet. In fact, including the end of the regular season, Gallen has walked at least two batters in five of his last six starts. That streak is unlikely to suddenly end in the NLCS.

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AUTHOR

Bryan Zarpentine

199 Articles

Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.

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