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Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props October 23

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published October 23, 2023
18 min read
Best MLB Player Props October 23

Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 at DraftKings)

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4.8/5

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It’d be borderline foolish to ignore the plus odds that Turner is getting for total bases in Game 6. He’s been one of Philadelphia’s most consistent and productive hitters during the postseason and also has a favorable matchup against Merrill Kelly on Monday. While Turner went hitless in Game 5, that was the only game of the postseason in which he failed to get a hit. In fact, it snapped a 14-game hitting streak dating back to the last week of the regular season. Despite going hitless in that game, he has an excellent chance to bounce back in Game 6.

Keep in mind that Turner has gone over 1.5 total bases seven times in 11 playoff games. On top of his hitting streak, he has five multi-hit games, five doubles, and three home runs. In other words, he has multiple paths when it comes to reaching more than 1.5 total bases. He’s also 10 for 22 (.455) with four extra-base hits in his career against Kelly. He’s the most likely member of the Phillies to do some damage in Game 6, making it a wise decision to back him.

Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at DraftKings)

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In 10 playoff games, Alvarez has collected 14 RBI. That stat alone is enough to take a chance on him to get an RBI in Game 7, especially since he’s getting plus odds. Alvarez has had at least one RBI in seven of Houston’s 10 postseason games, so it’s not as if he’s gotten most of his RBI in a couple of games. He’s been remarkably consistent at driving in runs during the playoffs.

With Max Scherzer starting Game 7 for the Rangers, Alvarez is well set up to get an RBI. Not only did Scherzer struggle in Game 3 but Alvarez is 4 for 8 with a homer in his brief career against Scherzer. Even after Scherzer leaves the game, Alvarez will be a home run threat, giving him a chance to collect an RBI that way. He also bats frequently with Jose Altuve on base, creating even more RBI opportunities. Alvarez also tends to have a flair for the dramatic and coming through in clutch situations. In Game 7, he figures to have a big hit that leads to an RBI.

Merrill Kelly Over 1.5 Walks (-190), Under 4.5 Hits (-155 at DraftKings)

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Kelly had mixed results when he faced the Phillies earlier this series, taking the loss while allowing four runs over 5.2 innings. The three home runs he gave up are what killed him. But he had been so good coming down the stretch and in his first playoff start that it’s hard to fade him completely. Those three home runs were the only hits he gave up against the Phillies. Going back to the regular season, Kelly has allowed four hits or less in four of his last five starts and six of his last eight starts.

Of course, walking batters has been an issue for him. Given the power in Philadelphia’s lineup and what they did to him earlier in the series, Kelly will have to be a little more careful. He’s walked more than one batter in seven straight starts, so reducing his walk total hasn’t been a strength of his lately anyway. After walking three in his last start of this series, Kelly is bound to issue at least a couple in Game 6.

Aaron Nola To Record Win(+160), Under 1.5 Walks (-145), Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings) 

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Forget about his inconsistent regular season because Nola has been masterful in the postseason. Across his three starts, Nola has allowed just two runs on 12 hits over 18.2 innings. He dominated the D’Backs for six innings in Game 2 and could have similar success in Game 6. With him on the mound, the Phillies have a good chance to close out the series. Since Nola has gotten the win in his previous three playoff starters, there is tremendous value in backing him to be the winning pitcher again in this game.

Meanwhile, there is safety in backing Nola to keep his walks below 1.5. He didn’t walk anyone in Game 2 and has just two walks over his 18.2 innings during the postseason. In fact, Nola has gone seven straight starts with one walk or less. The last time he walked multiple batters was September 2. Likewise, his strikeout totals have also been up during the playoffs. Over those last seven starts that he’s walked one batter or less, Nola has registered at least six strikeouts five times. His stuff has been electric, which is why he should continue to put away Arizona hitters and have a healthy strikeout total in Game 6.

Cristian Javier Over 12.5 Outs Recorded (+110), Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-150 at DraftKings)

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With the Rangers and Astros playing Game 7 on Monday, oddsmakers are banking that the leash will be short on the starting pitchers. But Javier has been so good during the playoffs that Dusty Baker might give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to pitch deep into the game. If he records just one out in the fifth inning, this bet will win. 

To be fair, going deep into games hasn’t been something Javier has done a lot this year. But he can surely be trusted to pitch into the fifth inning. He pitched well enough to go 5.2 innings in Game 3, allowing two runs on three hits. Javier also allowed just one hit in five scoreless innings during the ALDS. He’s looked good this postseason, winning both of his starts while yielding just two runs on four hits over 10.2 innings. Also, it’s hard to find anyone in the Texas lineup with a great track record against him. That should allow Javier to last at least five innings and keep the Rangers to two runs or less.

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AUTHOR

Bryan Zarpentine

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Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.

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