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The story of the season for the Miami Marlins has been the inconsistency from Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara, the reigning Cy Young winner is 1-2 on the year with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. In 24.2 innings, he has allowed 22 hits. Alcantara was a pitcher who benefited from ground balls hit into the shift, which accounted for a lot of his outs. However, his production after four starts is shocking.
Alcantara will have a tough time against the Braves, but he has more in the tank than he has shown this season. The Braves have elite power, but Alcantara is best against opponents in his first time through the order. Additionally, Miami has been the second-best NRFI team in baseball, hitting this prop 65% of the time.
The Marlins’ offense has been lackluster, which also plays into the NRFI appeal in this game. They must face Bryce Elder, who has been really strong in 23.2 innings of work. He is averaging a strikeout per inning and hasn’t allowed a homer yet. Take the YRFI and hope Alcantara can keep Atlanta’s offense tamed early in this matchup.
The Orioles have turned into one of the most enjoyable teams in baseball in one month. Before their young talent, offensive celebrations, and likable personalities, people are keeping an eye on Baltimore. The Orioles have been known for hitting thus far, which is a similar narrative the Red Sox are receiving.
Boston and Baltimore will conclude a three-game set on Monday, and the offense has been electric thus far. Tanner Houck is 3-0 with a 4.29 and a 1.24 WHIP. These numbers aren’t overwhelming, but Houck has been arguably the best starter for the Red Sox this season. He also has a background in the bullpen and works best in the first inning. The wing definitely has the opportunity to tame Baltimore’s offense.
Tyler Wells will throw for the Orioles and has been putting up elite numbers. The 28-year-old has a 2.7 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP with just 14 hits in 23.1 innings. Wells isn’t overpowering, but he is an amazing locator, which is something we don’t see in MLB every day. I like both pitchers to control the first inning, especially with a daytime start. However, we’re going to play the first-inning tie.
There are dangerous hitters all over both lineups. If a mistake is made, any batter can take advantage for the two clubs. This is the reason to lean towards the tie, without a major difference between the market and the NRFI odds.
The Chicago White Sox haven’t been good this season, which isn’t a surprise. The team was in shambles last season, and they haven’t been able to recover. They’re just 4-10 on the road this season so we wouldn’t trust them in a tough spot against the Blue Jays on Wednesday’s getaway day. However, Chicago and Toronto are a perfect fit for a YRFI wager.
Michael Kopech will toe the rubber for the White Sox. He is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. In 20.2 innings, he has allowed eight homers and walked 14 batters. The strikeout ability is there but command isn’t anywhere on Kopech’s scouting report.
Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for the Blue Jays, and he hasn’t lost this season. Yet, the pitcher has dealt with plenty of early struggles. He has allowed 20 hits in 21.1 innings, including six homers. There is enough pop in Chicago’s lineup to take advantage of a Kikuchi mistake. Chicago is hitting the YRFI 67% of the time because of their weak pitching and they won’t have an easy time sitting down Vlad Guerrero Jr. or Matt Chapman in the bottom half of the first inning.
Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.More info on Tanner Kern
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