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Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Predictions, Odds, Picks

Written by: Tony Garcia
Updated October 14, 2022
12 min read
Red Sox Vs Blue Jays July 21
  • Blue Jays have an advantage on the mound
  • Red Sox offense finding its form again?
  • X-factors to watch

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Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

Odds presented by: DraftKings Sportsbook

Team Run Spread Money Line Total
Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
O 10.5 (-110)
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-105)
U 10.5 (-110)

Trends to Watch (As of 7.21)

  • Red Sox are 23-9 in their last 32 vs. American League East
  • Red Sox are 55-27 in their last 82 Wednesday games
  • Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5
  • Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series
  • Under is 5-1-2 in Red Sox last 8 road games
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 overall
  • Over is 8-3-1 in Red Sox last 12 games as a road underdog
  • Over is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings with Toronto as home team
  • Over is 5-2 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings
  • Red Sox are 5-2 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings
  • Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite
  • Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 overall
  • Blue Jays are 10-3 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 home games
  • Blue Jays are 4-15 in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning record
  • Over is 7-0 in Blue Jays last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Predictions and Picks

Our Pick

It’s never quite as simple as it looks, but this one very well might be. Garrett Richards has been giving up runs by the boatload and we know Toronto can score more than its share of runs. We like the Blue Jays to cover the spread.

The best odds for this match

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Garcia’s 2021 record: (37-32-2)

How to Watch Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Information
Teams Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Location Sahlen Field, Buffalo, NY
Time Wednesday, July 21, 7:07  p.m. EST
How to watch New England Sports Network, MLB.TV

Blue Jays Hold the Advantage on the Mound

The Red Sox have one of, if not the most dynamic offenses in all of baseball. And they’re likely going to need it because Toronto enters play with a noticeable pitching advantage.

For the Jays, Robbie Ray toes the rubber and looks to build on what’s already been a very solid 2021 campaign. Ray ranks in the top 20 in all of baseball in most of the major categories including his 8-4 record (16th), 2.93 ERA (18th), 1.04 WHIP (18th) and 138 strikeouts (T-7th).

He’s been good all season, but he’s been at his best in July. Through three starts he’s gone 20.2 innings and given up just two runs, good for 0.87 ERA and WHIP below 0.75.Ray has faced the Red Sox once this year and picked up a win, giving up three earned runs in six innings while giving up four hits but piling up 10 strikeouts.

The season hasn’t gone quite so well for Boston’s Garrett Richards. Richards is 5-5 with a 4.91 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and has struck out just 73 hitters in 91.2 innings.

Richards held opponents to one run or fewer in four of his first eight starts this year, but has since given up multiple runs for 10 straight games.

Richards has faced the Jays three times this year, going 1-1 with varying degrees of success. He gave up just two runs in 6.2 innings in his best start, but gave up four runs in each of the other two contests, going four innings in one and 5.1 in the other.

Has the Red Sox Offense Found Its Form Again?

It’s weird to talk about the Red Sox offense needing to wake up, but that’s what was needed after a rough stretch at the end of last week.

Prior to its 13-4 series opening win on Monday, Boston was 2-6 in its last eight contests and had been held to three runs or fewer in half of those games. And while it’s only been a few games since the All-Star break, a few of Boston’s go-to hitters have struggled of late.

Xander Bogaerts is just 2-for-11 since the break with a .250 OBP and Alex Verdugo is just 1-for-13 with three walks and six strikeouts.

That said, there have been a few bright spots in the Red Sox lineup.J.D. Martinez is 6-for-14 the past four games, Rafael Devers has a .438 OBP during that stretch and Enrique Hernandez has an OPS of 1.083 thanks to his two home runs the past three nights.

X-Factors to Watch

When looking for an X-factor, we like to look for a reason someone might exceed expectations, have a big game or catch people by surprise. Christian Arroyo feels in line to do just that because of how well he’s done against left-handed pitching this year.

The second baseman is hitting .328 (22-of-67) with a .357 OBP and .894 OPS, not to mention he’s 3-for-7 the past three games with a home run and three RBIs.

As for this dominant Blue Jays lineup, we’re going to zero in on George Springer who might finally be turning a corner as he works his way back from injury.

Springer is 6-of-9 with a walk over the past three games, raising his batting average more than 50 points in that time. He can set the tone for Toronto at the top of this lineup

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Tony Garcia

180 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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