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NFL Prop Bets Week 4: Best NFL Player Props

Written by: Richard Janvrin
Published September 27, 2023
13 min read
NFL Prop Bets Week 4

Week 3 of the NFL season is in the books, and now, we’re looking ahead to Week 4 with the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions kicking things off on Thursday Night Football. 

Below are our top three prop bets for the Week 4 slate, with most coming from that Packers and Lions game. 

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Pick: Luke Musgrave Under 3.5 Receptions (-120) at DraftKings

In Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints, Musgrave was one Jordan Love overthrown ball away from a massive day, including potentially a touchdown. 

Against the Saints, Musgrave finished with six receptions on eight targets for 49 yards. 

In Week 1 and 2, he combined five receptions on seven targets for 75 yards. 

On the season, he’s averaging 11.3 yards per catch, and he’s targeted 10.9 yards downfield. 

Musgrave is heavily involved in the offense for a rookie tight end, which also includes leading the team in receiving snaps.

However, in Week 4, the Packers plan on having wide Christian Watson and potentially running back Aaron Jones, who will eat into the target share.

Also, this game is played on a short week, coupled with two pass-catching options returning to the lineup, making under 3.5 receptions, which Musgrave only exceeded in Week 3, a solid value play. 

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Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (-110) at DraftKings

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Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been dealing with turf toe the last couple of weeks, but it doesn’t appear to be slowing him down. This season, he has 21 receptions on 27 targets for 275 yards and a touchdown. When he’s on the field, he runs a route 94.2% of the time, averaging 2.84 yards per route run, and is targeted 8.7 yards downfield, a range that quarterback Jared Goff targets on 54.4% of his passes. 

In Week 1 and 2, St. Brown had six receptions and added nine more in Week 3. He lines up in the slot 53.4% of the time and is out wide on both the right and left side. 

St. Brown lines up anywhere, allowing them to create mismatches. 

In this one, the Packers are likely without cornerback Jaire Alexander, meaning St. Brown will have matchups against Rasul Douglas, Carrington Valentine, and Keisean Nixon.

This season, those corners have allowed 21 receptions on 31 targets (67.7% reception rate). However, Valentine has played just 37 coverage snaps this year. Douglas and Nixon have also allowed a touchdown.

Get ready for St. Brown to feast. 

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Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: FalconsTo Score First (+116) at Caesars 

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Heading out to London, we have the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons. The Jaguars are frequent fliers overseas. Still, we like the Falcons to score first here.

The Falcons aren’t a world-beater in the passing game, but they run the ball efficiently, generating 0.01 EPA per run play. To be exact, they run the ball 42.5% of the time. For perspective, the Jaguars run the ball just 34.4% of the time. 

The Jaguars also allowed 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game, including one last week to Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce. 

While the Jaguars offense is excellent with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, their defense has struggled to generate pressure this season, and against a running back like Bijan Robinson, their seven missed tackles could rear its ugly head. 

Look for the Falcons to score after a long opening drive. 

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*All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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AUTHOR

Richard Janvrin

548 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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