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This article has produced a weekly pain delivered directly to my gambling heart. But Week 4 was a special type of pain. After finishing one point short in Week 3 from hitting on all five legs, last week’s parlay died on the last play of Sunday Night Football as Patrick Mahomes elected to slide at the two-yard line instead of punching it in to cover Chiefs -6.5.
All we can do is rally and be proud of how close each of the last two weeks has been. But man is that frustrating.
Let’s get this week’s parlay firmly in the end zone and dive on in.
|Pick||Odds||Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)|
Brian Robinson o62.5 rushing yards
$10 to win $18.69
Miami Dolphins -9.5 (ALT)
$10 to win $32.54
Baltimore Ravens -4.5
$10 to win $62.12
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
$10 to win $118.61
Jets vs. Broncos, UNDER 47.5 (ALT)
$10 to win 181.03
Robinson has looked good this season despite the lack of any blow-up performances. While he’s only hit this line in two of his four games this year, Robinson’s workload is what everyone should watch for.
Robinson averages over 15 rushes a game and should certainly see the rock against the Chicago Bears. Chicago made UDFA Jaleel McLaughlin look like a star last week for the Broncos. A better offense in Washington should be able to impose its will on a defense that allowed almost 116 rushing yards a game on average to the Packers, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Broncos. Among those four teams, only the Chiefs average more rushing yards than the Commanders.
Isiah Pacheco had 62 rushing yards in that game but ceded 15 carries to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That split doesn’t exist in Washington, who should run Robinson for at least 70 yards.
Let’s buy a point here to get it to a nice 10-point lead, but this game could turn ugly quickly. The New York Giants were just obliterated on national television and while the return of Saquon Barkley should help, that doesn’t fix the myriad of issues the Giants have.
New York has managed 46 offensive points this season, with 31 of those coming against the Cardinals. Miami, on the other hand, has 150 points through four weeks. Yet you can buy a point to get a mere -9.5 spread at decent odds.
The Dolphins got a reality check against the Bills and have every motivation to return atop the division. They could also return standout pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips and starting safety DeShon Elliott this week. These teams are on different tiers of talent, and betting against the Giants hasn’t often failed this season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have looked close to unwatchable on offense, and you can get the Raiders for less than a touchdown. This game may be in Pittsburgh, but that’s not nearly enough to sway me into fading a Ravens team that is 3-1 ATS this season.
Steelers QB Kenny Pickett will likely miss Week 5 with a bone bruise on his knee, which means Mitch Trubisky is suiting up once more. The injuries are piling up in Pittsburgh, with wide receiver Diontae Johnson, defensive lineman Cameron Heyward, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and left tackle Dan Moore just representing a few of the missing pieces in Pittsburgh aside from Pickett.
This team was embarrassed by the Texans. The Ravens should be able to be just as effective if not more in Acrisure Stadium.
The Vikings managed an unconvincing win over the Panthers in Week 4, with some brutal turnovers that could’ve cost them the game against a team designed to punish them for it.
The Chiefs are still that team despite a disappointing effort in Week 4. The Vikings’ defense has been dissected all year long and while Bryce Young couldn’t take advantage of that, Patrick Mahomes can. Neither team has been impressive ATS, but the Chiefs came a yard away from covering in Week 4 and missed Travis Kelce in Week 1. Neither should be the case in Week 5.
Expect a high-scoring affair, but also a bounce-back for the Chiefs as Mahomes takes center stage under a dome.
It’s probably a smart move to buy a couple of points to account for how atrocious the Broncos’ defense has been, though perhaps I’m just scarred from missing on the last leg of last week’s parlay.
The Jets defense remains one of the most talented units in the NFL and if Zach Wilson can play as well as he did in Week 4, that defense has a legitimate chance of keeping the Broncos to one score or less. Russell Wilson is being sacked nearly three times a game and now faces a New York defense allowing just 21 points per game, 14th in the NFL. That number is also heavily jaded by a Week 2 blowout loss to Dallas.
This pass rush, which has put up a surprising lack of sacks relative to the pressures created, should see regression favor itself. I’m not willing to bet on Wilson punching this game home for New York, but I am willing to bet on the defense keeping this to a low-scoring affair for both sides.
Head over to DraftKings Sportsbook to place your parlay bets using our exclusive link.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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