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We were one POINT short last week from hitting on all five legs from last week’s parlay. The Packers decided to win by one rather than two, epitomizing the agonizing pain of the parlay life.
But in the immortal words of Ted Lasso, “Be a goldfish.” Sometimes it’s best to forget and move on to Week 4. That’s precisely what’s going to happen here.
Let’s dive in!
|Pick||Odds||Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)|
|Brian Branch o5.5 combined tackles||+110|
|$10 to win $22|
|Los Angeles Rams +2||-112|
|$10 to win $39.75|
|Minnesota Vikings ML||-185|
|$10 to win $61.23|
|Los Angeles Chargers -6||-112|
|$10 to win $115.91|
|Kansas City Chiefs ALT -6.5||-176|
|$10 to win 181.77|
It’s time to drink the Kool-Aid in Detroit, at least when it concerns Brian Branch. After watching Bijan Robinson and the Falcons run game embarrass defenses for two weeks, it was a rookie safety who managed to put the brakes on Atlanta’s train.
Branch had 11 tackles, three TFLs, and two passes defended in the team’s Week 3 victory. He played 100% of snaps for the first time this year with C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Kerby Joseph inactive. With the former out for the foreseeable future and the latter questionable for Thursday’s game, Branch should clear 5.5 tackles regardless.
He’s too essential to Detroit’s run support to bet against. Getting this at plus odds is the cherry on top.
The Rams may have looked off against the Bengals on Monday night, but Los Angeles does appear to be among the more hopeful of the 1-2 teams. After a brutal opening schedule against the Seahawks, 49ers, and Bengals, the Rams now head to Indianapolis.
The Rams average 284 passing yards a game — fourth best in the NFL — and the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua has helped this team while Cooper Kupp is sidelined. Los Angeles can beat Indianapolis through the air. The Colts rank 23rd in passing yards per game, which includes a Week 3 rainstorm against the run-heavy friendly Ravens. The Rams can do much more.
While Anthony Richardson has played well in his two starts of 2023, he has yet to punish defenses downfield. Eventually, the dink-and-dunk approach will demand a more aggressive approach. Getting the Rams as underdogs is a fun parlay addition in a game where they could walk away as winners.
It seems all those one-score victories for Minnesota are falling the opposite way this season, but eventually, the domino will fall in the right direction. And between the Panthers and the Vikings, it’s clear which team is more likely to drop to 0-4.
Justin Jefferson is on pace to crush the single-season receiving-yard record — by nearly 600 yards, no less. Don't forget that this is also something you can bet on and Justin Jefferson sure looks like a safe bet at the moment. Jordan Addison is improving every week, and Danielle Hunter is playing out of his mind on defense.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are touting Andy Dalton or a struggling rookie in Bryce Young if he’s healthy. Carolina lost linebacker Shaq Thompson for the season and cornerback Jaycee Horn managed one game before getting hurt. With Adam Thielen enjoying a small career revival, this game has shoot-out written all over it.
The Panthers and Vikings have both allowed 20 points or more in every game so far this year, and the latter is certainly capable of scoring far more than that. Back the better quarterback and offense in an ugly game that the Vikings must win to stay in the NFC North race.
Despite the Chargers’ best efforts, the team finally won a game in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings. And they’re surprisingly ready to hit .500 with their second win of the season against the Raiders.
Only Miami and Minnesota are averaging more passing yards per game than the Los Angeles Chargers, which shapes up well for Justin Herbert against a Raiders defense that made Kenny Pickett and the Steelers look capable on Sunday night. The Raiders could also be without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who must fight through a high ankle sprain and the NFL’s concussion protocol.
These teams should be on two different levels. Herbert will get a chance to prove it, even without Mike Williams (ACL) and potentially Austin Ekeler.
This is the week where, one way or another, the Jets finally realize they need to make a change under center. Head coach Robert Saleh can continue to dig his grave next to Zach Wilson’s, but in the meantime, Patrick Mahomes will supply the shovel.
The Chiefs are coming off a thorough spanking of the Chicago Bears and face a similarly inept team in the New York Jets. This -6.5 line does buy three points out of respect for the Jets defense, which has allowed more than 20 points just once this season.
But even then, there should be some confidence in Kansas City covering the sportsbook’s line. These teams are simply on different levels, and the Chiefs will prove it under the Sunday night lights.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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