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After finishing barely a leg short in the two weeks prior, our Week 5 parlay was full of holes this time around. At least the despair was spared, with Brian Robinson and the Commanders struggling as much as they did on Thursday night.
It was a good reality check after two consecutive parlays came inches away from hitting. Let’s get back on track for Week 6.
|Pick||Odds||Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)|
|DEN @ KC: Damarri Mathis o4.5 comb. tackles||-140|
|$10 to win $17.14|
|BAL @ TEN: Roger McCreary o4.5 comb. tackles||-120|
|$10 to win $31.42|
|CAR @ MIA: ALT Dolphins -9.5||-178|
|$10 to win $49.08|
|MIN @ CHI: OVER 44.5||-108|
|$10 to win $94.53|
|ARI @ LAR: Rams ML||-285|
|$10 to win $127.70|
Defensive bets can be a good spot for a parlay leg, with sportsbooks often unsure on how to evaluate matchups for tackle upside. That’s why you see many lines with -140 or longer on basic props.
But it doesn’t take too much of a deep dive to realize why Mathis is a good bet to take. He has hit this line in all five games this season and boasts six or more tackles in three games. Mathis’ line should be at 5.5, but jumping on it now a full tackle fewer makes too much sense.
Patrick Mahomes should keep the offense on the field long enough to make life difficult for Mathis, who has been hyper-targeted by opposing quarterbacks this season.
Another defensive line! Last one, I promise.
McCreary, like Mathis, has also cleared this line in every game this season and has yet to finish under six tackles. While a matchup with the Ravens can be unsettling to some given the uncertainties in the passing attack, McCreary’s production and tackle efficiency suggest he’s worth a shot at near-even odds.
The Titans CB still found a way to hit against shaky passing attacks in Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis over the last three weeks and should find a way once more against Baltimore.
The Carolina Panthers are a bad football team. That revelation is not blowing anyone’s mind, but since the Dolphins covered for us last week, let’s ride with them again against a pitiful opponent.
There is zero issue with taking Dolphins -13.5 straight up, but it doesn’t cost too much to buy some points down to a 10-point win. The Panthers have struggled all year long and just allowed 42 points to a Lions team missing Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
It’s unrealistic to expect Carolina to stay competitive on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL. Miami can also return Jeff Wilson to try and replace electric rookie De’Von Achane and they could bring back edge rusher Jaelan Phillips. No such reinforcements are coming for the Panthers, who have yet to make any offensive steps forward under Bryce Young.
That means Carolina will have to slow down Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins. That won’t happen.
Minnesota will play without Justin Jefferson for the first time in the superstar’s four-year career, shaping up for somewhat uncertain grounds for the Vikings when they head to Chicago. Still, a 44.5 over/under seems awfully conservative for the quality of defenses both teams possess.
The Bears and Vikings both rank below the league average in points allowed, good for a combined 55.8 points. The defenses have consistently struggled and shouldn’t pose a threat — the greater question is whether the offenses can put up the points.
Justin Fields and the Bears offense have looked terrific over the last two weeks, culminating in a Chicago victory in Week 5 to snap a 14-game losing streak. The Ohio State product and his favorite target, D.J. Moore, have brutalized defenses in recent weeks and shouldn’t face a much harder task at home against the Vikings.
So, can the Vikings score against Chicago without Justin Jefferson? Absolutely. While there’s a lack of sample size to pull from, Cousins still has first-round rookie Jordan Addison and star tight end T.J. Hockenson, plus a capable running back in Alexander Mattison. It’s fair to expect more mistakes, but those could also turn into Bears’ points as a result.
Picking a winner in this one is difficult. Picking the over shouldn’t be.
For the first time, this parlay uses a leg longer than -200. You can say I’m playing scared, but it’s just about offsetting risk.
Los Angeles came up short against Philadelphia in a game that felt closer than a two-possession score would indicate. The return of Cooper Kupp didn’t result in a victory, but it did end in the superstar’s 30th 100-yard game. He hasn’t lost a step, and that’s arguably the biggest win the Rams could’ve taken from Week 5.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost all but one game, with a win against the Dallas Cowboys looking more like a fluke by the week. Arizona has allowed 30 points or more in three games this year, and the Rams have a good shot to add to that total in Week 6 with a fully healthy squad.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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