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Some hits, some misses. It was more of the same in our weekly parlay last week, though having two losses on defensive bets is out-of-character and an injury to Justin Fields didn’t help Chicago score points toward the over.
Week 7 will be much better. Here’s the weekly ride, which you are welcome to tail or mix and match to your pleasure.
|Pick||Odds||Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)|
|BUF @ NE:|
Bills 1st Half -5.5
|$10 to win $19.09|
|PIT @ LAR:|
|$10 to win $30.87|
|GB @ DEN:|
Highest Scoring Half: Second Half
|$10 to win $54.62|
|MIA @ PHI:|
ALT, OVER 49.5
|$10 to win $89.19|
|SF @ MIN:|
|$10 to win $163.53|
The last two parlays died on a Thursday night leg. Let’s switch it up to get away from that bad juju.
The Bills average 14.7 points per game in the first half, good for seventh in the NFL, despite putting up a zero in the first half last week against the Giants. They should positively regress against a Patriots defense that has yet to round into form and may never do so after losing star pass-rusher Matt Judon and promising cornerback Christian Gonzalez to injury.
Additionally, the Patriots tend to start games sluggishly. Only the Packers and Giants average fewer points in the first half than the Patriots. New England’s meager 5.5 points on average in the first half gives the Bills over a nine-point advantage, while the spread resides at just -5.5.
The Buffalo Bills were a questionable no-call away from losing at home to the Giants, failing to show up in a similar fashion to the 49ers and Eagles earlier in the day. Expect them to send a strong message early against the hapless Patriots this week.
It’s never my preference to bet against a team coming off a bye, but I do like the idea of betting against a team traveling out west. Regardless, when push comes to shove, the Rams are a better team.
Los Angeles had a few unlucky drops that could’ve led to an even bigger day against the Cardinals, but the team still dominated from start to finish. Some may worry about the likely absence of starting running back Kyren Williams, but the Rams’ passing attack should more than make up for it against a struggling Steelers secondary that ranks 25th against the pass.
This Rams’ defense has also played far better than many expected, ranking 11th in points allowed per game. This might be closer than some expect, and you may get better odds later in the week depending on the health statuses of Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth and receiver Diontae Johnson. But expect the Rams to come away from Week 7 with a win.
This may not be your usual bet, but there are a lot of promising stats to suggest it’s worth your money.
The Packers average just 5.2 points per game in the first half, only better than the Giants. Denver’s poor defense could certainly up that number, but that could just as easily apply to the second half. In fact, the Broncos allow the second-most points in the second half.
The Packers have been better in the second half on defense, but the team’s offensive scoring in the second half should make up for it. Green Bay averages 17.4 points in the second half, the best in the NFL. The Broncos are also above the league average in second-half scoring.
It’s a lot of numbers, but the gist is that everything points to a higher-scoring second half.
It’s always wise to buy a few points on a long bet. However, I’d understand if you simply took the natural route in this one.
Both teams tout high-profile offenses, but the struggles of both teams’ defenses are worth noting. Miami and Philadelphia allow a combined 46.7 points on average per game, and neither are facing quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa on a weekly basis. Fortunately, both will suit up against each other this Sunday.
The Eagles have struggled to cover receivers all year long. Now they face one of the best duos in the game between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The same can be said for the Dolphins secondary, which will certainly struggle against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Eagles running back D’Andre Swift should also be far more effective against Miami than he was against New York.
There isn’t much to overthink on this one. Bet on the Dolphins doing more of the same and the Eagles’ offense rebounding after an embarrassing loss to the Jets.
Nearly every one of my bets included a 49ers money-line against Cleveland last week. After burning me — and most bettors out there — it should say something that I’m picking them once more next week.
The Vikings were far from convincing in last week’s win over the Bears, who lost starting quarterback Justin Fields in the middle of the game. Without receiver Justin Jefferson the team needs rookie Jordan Addison to step up. While Addison will be a very good receiver, he struggled in college — and in Week 6 — against physical cornerback play. Unfortunately for the USC product, that is Charvarius Ward’s specialty.
Minnesota hasn’t been able to run the ball with any consistency, which won’t suddenly improve against San Francisco’s defensive line. So now all you must wonder is whether Kyle Shanahan can get his offense back on track after struggling against one of the league’s best defenses.
Trust that he will do just that, especially if any of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel or Trent Williams return to the field after suffering Week 6 injuries. The 49ers should also return starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw to the lineup.
Head over to DraftKings Sportsbook to place your parlay bets using our exclusive link.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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