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This week will introduce a new approach to the parlay after some frustrating misses, including the brutal over/under in the Dolphins/Eagles game. These legs have value, especially if you mix and match the right ones, but finding the correct five-leg grouping has been challenging, as expected.
So let’s switch it up with some fresh ideas, some of which paid off well last week. Here’s the weekly parlay. Tail or mix and match to your pleasure.
|Pick||Odds||Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)|
|MIN @ ATL: ALT UNDER 42.5||-216|
|$10 to win $14.62|
|LAR @ GB: Rams ML||+136|
|$10 to win $34.52|
|NYG @ LV: Raiders ML||-135|
|$10 to win $60.10|
|BUF @ CIN: ALT Bengals +3.5||-253|
|$10 to win $83.85|
|LAC @ NYJ: Chargers 1H ML||-148|
|$10 to win $140.51|
There’s some risk in betting this early in the week, which is why I’m opting to buy a few points to offer some breathing room. Nobody knows who is taking the first snap under center for the Vikings, but everyone does know it won’t be Kirk Cousins after the veteran tore his Achilles in Week 8.
That’s a greater loss to this team than Justin Jefferson even was, and he’s not returning this week, either. Whether it’s Jaren Hall or newly traded Joshua Dobbs — backup Nick Mullens is on the injured reserve himself — this should spell disaster for Minnesota.
Atlanta is not an easy matchup, sitting a bit above the league average in points allowed and the Vikings lack a reliable rushing attack to beat the Falcons along their defensive line, its weak spot. Meanwhile, the Falcons aren’t putting up a ton of points with Desmond Ridder either, and a 42.5 line should cover any splash plays that occur.
This line has cleared the under in six of Atlanta’s eight games this season. Dobbs could be good for Minnesota, but it’s an awfully big ask to command a new playbook within a few days.
The Rams are one of the toughest teams to evaluate. Some weeks they look like a powerhouse, yet they still lost to the Steelers in Week 7 and were obliterated by Dallas in Week 8.
Still, I’ve lost enough money betting on the Packers this year. So let’s swing it the other way and take the Rams at plus odds.
Jordan Love and the Packers haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 2, completely imploding after the offense’s red-hot start. The Rams still have Matthew Stafford under center and a dominant duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The Packers have struggled in recent years against teams with receiving depth.
This should be a lower-scoring game, but one that should also sit at close to even odds given each team’s struggles over the last month. The Rams’ offense has also been a bit better on the road this year. Give the edge to the team with more high-end talent which also comes at plus odds.
Here we go, betting on the Raiders! How could this possibly go wrong?
Neither team has come close to meeting expectations in 2023, but the Raiders have still been in most games thanks to the tireless play of Maxx Crosby on defense. In a similar sense to T.J. Watt or Myles Garrett, Crosby has the rare ability to win a game on his own as a defensive player. With Crosby now lining up against a Giants team that sits tied for last in sacks allowed, you can only imagine the damage the defensive end can do.
The same could be said of Kayvon Thibodeaux on the other side of the ball, who might be the most in-form pass-rusher right now. But with Leonard Williams being traded away earlier in the week this defensive line lost a huge leader on the unit.
Bettors also should note that Daniel Jones is returning for the Giants under center, which is a big boost for the Big Blue. Still, it’s been a long time since we have seen the Giants put up several scores, and Jones doesn’t have a magic wand to fix all of that.
This could be an ugly game, but take the home team with some confidence in a must-win affair for Josh McDaniels.
You can buy enough points at reasonable odds to get the Bengals at more than a field goal as an underdog. That’s not too shabby for Cincinnati, who has a good chance to outright win this game.
The Bengals are gunning for the playoffs, and after a slow start to the year, there isn’t much room to drop wins. Cincinnati handled San Francisco in Week 8 with ease, and now gets an extremely banged-up Bills defense that is without Pro Bowlers in Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White.
The Patriots were able to dissect Buffalo’s secondary in Week 7, and while the Buccaneers weren’t able to do the same that can be partly chalked up to Thursday Night Football’s tendency for offensive struggles. The Bengals are starting to look like the team we thought them to be this offseason, and that team has beaten Buffalo plenty of times in the past.
Getting Cincinnati at home with +3.5 points, even at longer odds, is a perfect leg to add to the parlay.
The Chargers average the fourth-most points in the first half this season. While the Jets are certainly a good defensive unit, they still sit 25th in points allowed in the first half.
Los Angeles put up 24 in the first half last week against the Bears, who sit right behind the Jets at 26th in first-half points allowed. Everything about this line screams value given what each team has done this season.
What about the Jets offense against the Chargers? While Los Angeles hasn’t been great as a defensive unit — sitting 20th in points allowed in the first half — the Jets sit 27th in first-half
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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