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Week 14 was quite a time for the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots. The Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road 21-18, securing their third win of the season. Conversely, the Chiefs lost to the Buffalo Bills at home 20-17 after Kadarius Toney was technically offside, but the refs, according to players, made a call that hardly ever gets called. Thus, they ended up losing the game.
Both teams are riding different levels of momentum here—the Patriots and quarterback Bailey Zappe are feeling good after a three-touchdown performance, and the Chiefs are likely agitated and ready to right the ship.
Let’s dive into the three best prop bets from this game.
It’s no secret that Mahomes and the Chiefs are having a down year, with Mahomes at 23 passing touchdowns and 3,398 yards with four games left to go. Still, something must be said about the game's human element following their Week 14 loss.
Despite their atrocious record, the Patriots defense has been solid, holding opposing quarterbacks to 231.15 passing yards, 1.08 touchdowns, and 0.54 interceptions per game.
Their last few quarterbacks include Gardner Minshew, Tommy Devito, and Mitchell Trubisky, and yes, they shut down Justin Herbert.
This season, the Patriots have allowed just three quarterbacks to have multiple passing touchdowns, and Mahomes will be the fourth.
Mahomes has just one passing touchdown in each of his last two games but had three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns.
Look for a big-time redemption here from Mahomes on the road.
Getting Kelce at “+” money to score a touchdown, albeit +100, is a worthy bet.
Above, we advocated for multiple touchdowns from Mahomes, and where better for them to go than into the arms of his No. 1 option?
Kelce is far and away the team’s No. 1 option, seeing 99 targets, catching 80 passes, and going for 896 yards and five touchdowns. Wide receiver Rashee Rice has 59 catches for 663 yards and six touchdowns.
The Patriots hold tight ends to just 4.31 receptions for 38.46 yards per game and have only allowed one tight end touchdown this year, but Kelce is so prominent in the passing game that he’s hard to overlook.
The adage of Belichick taking away the top playmaker could come true, but this is a volume play while getting the “+” money. Consider passing on this prop if this falls into the “-” territory.
A bit of a random prop here, but we’re leaning over on Zappe’s rushing yards at 9.5.
This season, the Chiefs allow opposing quarterbacks to rush five times for just over 18 yards. They’ve allowed ten rushing yards or more eight times this season.
For Zappe, he’s had more than ten rushing yards in both of his starts this season—16 in Week 13 and 13 in Week 14.
In his final season in college, Zappe had 140 rushing yards and three scores, including five games with ten rushing yards or more.
Take the over here.
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What: Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Where: Gilette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
When: Sunday, Dec. 17, 1:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: FOX
After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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