The Bengals allow 159.5 rushing yards per game (26th) and face the Commanders, who average 32.5 rush attempts (sixth) per game.
The Commanders have allowed opposing wide receivers to score six touchdowns, including three passing touchdowns per game.
The Commanders have allowed multiple wide receivers to score in both games this season.
In the second of two Monday Night Football games in Week 3, the Cincinnati Bengals are hosting the Washington Commanders. These teams haven’t met since Nov. 22, 2020, when Washington won 20-9. This will also be a battle between former LSU quarterbacks Joe Burrow (Bengals) and Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Jayden Daniels (Commanders).
Below, you'll find a Same Game Parlay for this matchup from FanDuel Sportsbook with +775 odds. At FanDuel Sportsbook, you’ll receive $200 in bonus bets when you create an account, deposit $10, and wager $5.
I’ve gone back and forth with the point spread of 7.5 points, and since I can’t pick one with confidence, I’m opting to add the total for this four-leg Same Game Parlay.
The Bengals looked much better in Week 2, nearly beating the Kansas City Chiefs. If they had beaten them, I assume the spread would have been even more lopsided. However, their defense allows 159.5 rushing yards (26th) per game, which will be intriguing as the Commanders average 32.5 rush attempts (sixth) per game.
Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the ground against them, and here, they’ll attempt to wrangle Daniels, who has 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground to start the year. Running backs are also performing well against this Bengals run defense, averaging 29 carries and 126 yards per game. I expect to also see a heavy dosage of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler.
I’m taking the over here because I think Washington will do enough in the running game and from behind to score some points while the Bengals' passing attack takes on a Washington defense with beatable cornerbacks Benjamin St-Juste and Michael Davis against Bengals wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and the returning Tee Higgins.
Look for the Bengals passing attack to perform well and for Washington's ability to run the ball to allow them to keep somewhat of a pace.
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In addition to the total, I will take the Bengals moneyline. Of course, the odds aren’t great at -370, but this is just one of four legs on a parlay.
While the Bengals tend to get beat up in the running game (so far this season), they’ve been excellent against the pass. They’re allowing just 128.5 passing yards per game and held Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to around 150.
Daniels threw for 184 in Week 1 and 226 in Week 2, but over 70% of his attempts are behind the line of scrimmage or just 0-9 yards downfield. This could help them as an extension of the running game, but they’ve had trouble scoring the ball in the red zone. They’ve made nine red zone trips and have scored touchdowns on just three of them. They’re tied for second in trips but are tied for fifth-worst in converting them for touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have just six trips but have converted half of them.
I’ll touch on the Any Time TD props below for Chase and Higgins, but I also expect these Commanders' cornerbacks to be heavily outmatched.
The Bengals win at home here, but I’m not sure if they cover the 7.5-point spread, hence the moneyline addition.
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The Bengals have been without Higgins to this point in the season, and Chase has yet to find the endzone. He has 10 receptions on 11 targets for 97 yards.
However, he’ll take a Commanders cornerback group that has allowed a combined 26 receptions on 38 receptions for 297 yards and four touchdowns.
To start the year, the Commanders allow 15 receptions for 186.5 yards per game, including 12.43 yards per catch.
Beyond the cornerbacks, the Commanders, as a whole, have allowed six touchdowns.
Chase lines up on both sides of the field, and with Higgins returning, they cannot double-team him.
Look for Chase to finally get in the touchdown column this week.
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That’s right, we’re doubling down on Bengals receivers to score touchdowns here, and I think Higgins also finds the endzone in his first game back.
In 2023, Higgins, like Chase, also lined up on both the right and left sides. Thus, much of the analysis above for Chase rings true here.
I mentioned that the Commanders have allowed opposing wide receivers to score six touchdowns this year, and in the first two games, they’ve also allowed multiple wide receivers to score.
In Week 1, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all scored. Then, in Week 2 against the lowly New York Giants, Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson scored.
Washington ranks last in the league in opponent passing touchdowns per game and is 30th in opponent passing touchdown percentage.
Through two weeks, 40 passes have been completed against the Commanders. They’ve allowed six touchdowns. That’s a passing touchdown per 6.66 pass completions.
Look for Burrow to throw his name back in the NFL MVP odds debate after this week.
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