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Under 36 (-112)
Jets under 13.5 points (+195)
Raiders under 18.5 points (-130)
Both teams to score 10+ points (-280)
While this Sunday Night Football matchup features two mediocre teams, both will be playing for a chance to save their seasons.
The Jets have overcome the odds to keep their record at the .500 mark as they hope for an early return from Aaron Rodgers. Zach Wilson still hasn’t been great, but he is playing better, thanks to limiting turnovers. The New York defense remains elite, meaning the offense doesn’t have to do much to win games.
The Raiders just fired head coach Josh McDaniels, and it led to an impressive 30-6 win over the Giants on Sunday. Reports from the Vegas locker room signal that McDaniels was not well-liked, which can explain why they looked so much better without him last weekend.
Below, we will break down each leg of our parlay to give you the odds and insights needed to win big this weekend.
This is a very low total for an NFL game, but we are still all over the under. One reason is the poor play of both of these offenses. The Raiders rank thirtieth in yards (275.6 YDS/G) and twenty-seventh in scoring (17.3 PTS/G). The Jets have been even worse, ranking thirty-first in yards (272.9) and thirtieth in scoring (16.5 PTS/G). While the Raiders put up 30 points on the Giants last weekend, we don’t see them being able to repeat that against an elite Jets defense on Sunday night.
Speaking of defense, this matchup features two stout defenses. The Jets have the better unit, ranking ninth in yards (312.0 YDS/G) and eighth in scoring (19.5 PTS/G). The Raiders have also been solid, ranking in the league's top half in yards (330).9 YDS/G), but rank nineteenth in scoring (21.4 PTS/G). While their poor offense has led to the defense’s numbers being inflated, a change of coach could help them improve on both sides of the ball.
Even when the Jets have been winning, they aren’t scoring many points. Zach Wilson has been a decent game manager but doesn’t make many big plays. He has 1,600 passing yards, five touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 59.9% completion percentage. Those are ugly numbers, but the Jets' elite defense and offensive playmakers like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson have helped support him. The Jets have scored under 14 points in two consecutive games and half of their games in 2023.
While the Raiders' defense isn’t overwhelming, they have an elite pass rusher in Maxx Crosby. The 26-year-old is the most essential piece of the offense, leading the team with 9.5 sacks and 13 TFLs. Those numbers are impressive, especially considering the Raiders lack another pass rusher, meaning defenses are keying on the big defensive end. His ability to generate pressure leads to big plays for this defense, which should rattle Wilson in this primetime matchup.
This is not a good Raiders offense. While Davante Adams remains one of the best pass catchers in football, the rest of the unit lacks playmakers. Runningback Josh Jacobs has been a significant disappointment, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season. He has rushed for more than 70 yards twice this season, both of which came against bad run defenses. The Jets' front seven is great, so expect to see Jacobs have another lousy outing on Sunday night.
Aside from the offense's struggles on the ground, they are also starting rookie Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. The fourth-round draft pick has played in three games this season, throwing for 522 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He looked sharp against the Giants last weekend, but now he’ll be up against a Jets defense, allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game (174.8). Considering the floundering Raiders run game, the Jets' defense will be able to focus on taking advantage of the 2023 fourth-round draft pick.
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While we expect this to be a defensive showdown, both teams have the weapons to at least score 10 points. For the Jets, running back Breece Hall has been their best offensive weapon. Thanks to the team's poor passing game, he has run into struggles when playing good defenses. However, he has also rushed for over 120 yards twice this season. The 22-year-old averages 5.2 yards per carry, leading the Jets to at least one score this weekend.
The Raiders offense will not find much success, but we love what we saw from them last week. The change at coach and quarterback had this unit looking far improved, allowing them to score at least ten points against a great Jets defense on Sunday Night Football.
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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