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The Texans and Colts square off on Saturday, and this is essentially a playoff game before the playoffs occur.
If the Texans win and the Jaguars lose, they’ll be the No. 4 seed in the AFC. If they win and the Jaguars win, they’re the No. 7. If the Colts and Jaguars win, the Jaguars are the No. 4 seed, whereas the Colts are the No. 7 seed. However, if they win and the Jaguars lose, they get the No. 4 seed.
Expect the starters out there.
Below, we have the three best prop bets for this matchup.
The Colts and Texans square off to see who will make the playoffs, and while we think the Colts have the upper hand here, we’re taking the under on this line of 240.5 passing yards for Minshew.
Minshew has had 241 passing yards or more this season in just four of his starts.
In relief of Anthony Richardson in Week 2 against the Texans, he had 23 attempts for 171 yards and a touchdown.
Minshew has had a high of 224 passing yards in his last three games.
In that same span, the Texans have allowed 212 passing yards per game and only 134 in their last game against the Titans.
On the season, they’ve allowed 240.4 passing yards per game.
Look for Minshew to finish around 220 while letting Jonathan Taylor pound the rock and lead the offense.
Stroud missed a couple of games due to a concussion, but he’s had just five interceptions all season.
That said, we’ll take a chance on him throwing one here, especially at +130.
He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 11, when he had three against Arizona.
However, the Colts are tied for ninth in the NFL in opponent interceptions thrown per game at 0.9.
The Colts have had at least one interception in ten games and multiple interceptions in four.
Stroud has been consistent with keeping the football protected. Still, based on this game likely requiring passing on both sides to come away with a win, the +130 line, and the Colts affinity for interceptions overall this season, this is worth a half-unit wager.
Josh Downs has played out of the slot on 81.4% of his snaps this season and will square off mostly against Desmond King II.
Downs has caught 65 passes for 723 yards this season and just two touchdowns. He hasn’t scored since Week 7.
Still, this looks like a solid matchup for it to happen.
Michael Pittman will be matched up with Derek Stingley Jr. At the same time, Downs will play against a cornerback who’s played 150 coverage snaps this season. He’s allowed 22 receptions on 24 targets for 125 yards.
He hasn’t allowed a touchdown, but it’s just 150 coverage snaps. The more important number here is the reception rate.
Look for Downs to draw more targets and opportunities here while other receivers have more challenging matchups.
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bet365 Sportsbook - $1,000 Safety Net Bet OR $150 in Bonus Bets
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
When: Saturday, Jan. 6, 8:15 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ABC
After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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