Best TNF Prop Bets Tonight
The dog days of what seemed like continuous Thursday Night Football matchups of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans seem to be, at least, easing up.
The AFC West as a whole looks to be one of the more competitive divisions in football, with the Chargers and Chiefs leading the pack.
Both teams won in Week 1, though the Chiefs did so by putting up 44 points on the road against the Arizona Cardinals.
The Chargers covered their three or 3.5-point spread against the Las Vegas Raiders but posted just 24 points and lost wide receiver Keenan Allen to a hamstring injury.
That injury will linger into Thursday and force the veteran receiver to miss out.
With all this in mind, let’s explore three prop bets you should wager on to help pad the virtual wallet.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams Anytime Touchdown (+145) at FanDuel
Scoring touchdowns in the NFL is hard enough, but if anyone in this game at “+” money could get one, it’s Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams.
Keep in mind, the Chargers will be without Allen in this game, making Williams the sole bearer of the No. 1 receiver responsibilities.
Williams didn’t really do a whole lot in Week 1 against the Raiders, catching just two passes on four targets for 10 yards, but his fortunes should turn around here.
The total in this game is at 54.5, no matter where you’re betting, which is one of the higher totals we should see all season.
Williams will be the No. 1 receiving option for the team against a beatable Chiefs defense.
Whether you’re betting or pondering whether to start him in your fantasy football lineups, Williams is an excellent candidate for a great game to kick off Week 2.
By using our link, you can receive a No Sweat First Bet of up to $1,000 at FanDuel today.
Justin Herbert Over 282.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Scoring 24 points in Week 1, Herbert was still quite close to this line at 271 yards while tossing three scores.
Going up against the Chiefs in what should end in a game with a combined score somewhere in the 50s, Herbert may need to pass a bit more than 33 times.
This line could be in danger if the Chargers had more of a traditional 30-carry running back. Still, Austin Ekeler, the starting running back, is one of the more prolific pass-catching backs in the league.
In 2021, Herbert had nine games of 300 or more passing yards and one at 281, which is not only close to this line but came against—you guessed it—the Chiefs on the road.
Smash the over here with Herbert.
Earn a $1,000 risk-free bet today by signing up at BetMGM using our link.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Passing Completion Under 38.5 Yards (-115) at Caesars
When scrolling through the prop bets at Caesars (where you receive a $1,250 risk-free bet right now by clicking our link), this one is a bit more niche but something that immediately caught our eye.
Looking back at Week 1, Mahomes and the Chiefs scored 44 points on the road. Now, it’s fair to assume that maybe there were a couple of huge plays that led to some quick scores, but that wasn’t exactly the case.
On throws of 20 yards or more, Mahomes completed one of three passes for 35 yards. That was to tight end Travis Kelce with Cardinals cornerback Marco Wilson in coverage.
This line is at 38.5, which just seems a bit too high.
The Chiefs lost wide receiver Tyreek Hill this offseason, who could probably get two of these in a single game. Sure, the Chiefs replaced some of that downfield threat with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but his longest catch was a 12-yard pass over the middle of the field.
Against the Chargers secondary, finding Valdes-Scantling deep could prove more difficult, especially if matched up against Asante Samuel Jr. at cornerback with Derwin James and Nasir Adderley playing safety.
Mahomes did have game-high completions of over 38.5 in nine separate games last year, with one coming against the Chargers. Still, without Hill in the lineup, this should help limit those big plays.
What Is a Prop Bet?
A prop bet is where you wager on a micro-event happening within the larger event.
In this case, the larger event would be the game—for example, the New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills.
Within that event, prop bets can be made on the game, each team, and single players.
NFL Player Prop Bets
Player props are arguably the most exciting type of prop bet. In a way, these are like fantasy football in terms of guessing the final game statistic for each player.
For example, Bills running back Devin Singletary has a rushing yard prop bet line of 54.5.
Your goal is to decide whether it’ll go over or under that number, and there are odds for each selection.
NFL Team Prop Bets
As opposed to single-player props, team props are where you’ll gauge how the team performs individually throughout the game.
Some popular examples include points at halftime, the number of touchdowns or field goals scored, and more.
Why You Should Trust Us
After writing about fantasy football for over a decade as a hobby, I turned that into a job starting in 2015. From there, I covered fantasy football and began covering the NFL more generally, including some betting content. However, my writing regarding online sports betting became more prevalent in 2018 after the Professional, and Amateur Sports Protection Act was overturned in May.
Since then, I’ve covered sports betting on the NFL and other sports.
With each pick, you can feel confident in knowing that these are picks I’d make with my own money.
How Do We Pick Our Best Prop Bets?
There’s a plethora of ways to examine prop bets. You can examine the point spread for single-player props to see where the sportsbooks think the game will go.
For example, if a sportsbook has the Bulls as 13-point favorites, that could indicate the Bills will have a substantial lead at some point, leading to less passing from quarterback Josh Allen.
In that case, if we refer back to the rushing prop of Devin Singletary, it could make more sense.
That said, each case is different in terms of NFL roster construction.
Some other general rules of thumb are wide receiver vs cornerback matchups, the offensive line versus a defensive line, and more.
There are plenty of nuances here.
What Are the Best Sportsbooks for NFL Prop Bets?
Overall, DraftKings seems to have the most variety, but FanDuel and Caesars also have quite the library.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.