Thursday Night Football Week 8 Picks: Vikings Poised to Bounce Back After Last Week’s Loss to Detroit
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The Minnesota Vikings suffered their first loss of the season last week to the Detroit Lions
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Minnesota’s Sam Darnold ranks above league average in quarterback EPA per Play and CPOE
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The Los Angeles Rams defense ranks near dead last across the board in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
After starting their season 5-0 and in first place in the NFC North, the Minnesota Vikings have finally suffered their first loss of the year to the Detroit Lions and have moved down to second place in the division standings in the process. Don’t let their loss fool you, it was a thrilling contest from start to finish with both teams looking like a pair of Super Bowl contenders in what may have been a potential preview of the NFC Conference Championship.
While the Vikings have thrived seven weeks into the season, the same can not be said for the Los Angeles Rams as they are currently 2-4 and dealing with an abundance of injuries. They do come off a win against the Las Vegas Raiders, yet the Vikings will be a drastic step up in quality of opponent on Thursday night. Limiting the Vikings' offensive production may be near impossible for the Rams as their defense enters the contest ranked near dead last across the board in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
As for where to wager on Thursday night’s primetime matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams, Caesars Sportsbook has been the top choice for the NFL as they offer a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with Caesars Sportsbook, you can get a $1,000 First Bet on Caesars should you lose your first bet after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSN1000.
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
While playing on the road and on short rest usually brings in an uptick in variance, the Minnesota Vikings' elite defense possesses more than enough production to help shut down the Rams' injury-riddled offense. Entering Thursday night, the Vikings' defense ranks near the top of the board in both Def Pass and Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Better yet, the Vikings front seven will have the opportunity to live in the Rams backfield as they rank top-5 in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate.
That spells potential doom for the Rams offense, especially if Cooper Kupp is still unable to play while dealing with an injury. Without his safety blanket, Matthew Stafford will struggle to combat against the Vikings' exotic blitz schemes as his offensive line ranks near dead last in Off Adjusted Sack Rate. When under constant pressure, it’s safe to assume the Rams' pass attack as a whole will mightily regress as Stafford will be forced to throw into tight windows for a potential uptick in turnover-worthy plays.
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Minnesota Vikings Team Total Over 24.5 (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Not only will the Vikings' defense be in a position to dominate, but their reeling offense will have the opportunity to round back into form as they face off against one of the worst defenses in the league. As of writing, the Rams' defense ranks near dead last across the board in Def Pass and Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate while their front line ranks 26th in Adjusted Line Yards. Should the Vikings team total tick down to the key number of 24, be prepared to make another wager as their offense will have a great opportunity to clear that mark.
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Vikings / Lions ML Parlay (-116) at Caesars Sportsbook
Should playing on the road while on short rest scare you off the number, then the Vikings make for a great addition to a two team moneyline parlay as they would have to just win the game to help cover their part for the parlay. They certainly have the advantages on both sides of the ball to secure the win, moving the ball against one of the worst defenses in the league while their own unit shuts down their pass attack.
As for who to pair the with the Vikings, their last opponent makes for an intriguing team to pair with as the Detroit Lions get the fortunate favor of hosting the lowly Tennessee Titans. The Lions should have no issue with building up a sizable lead over the Titans as Tennessee’s offense is ill-equipped to take advantage of Detroit’s underwhelming secondary, entering the contest ranked near dead last in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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