USA vs. Uruguay Prediction: The Yanks Must Win to Secure a Spot in the Knockout Stage

Written by: Angelo Zarra
Published July 1, 2024
5 min read

Monday evening at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City the final Group C fixture will be played between USA and Uruguay. This will be the eighth time ever that these two sides will clash against each other. Their two most recent encounters saw both sides split the points in a pair of friendlies in 2019 and 2022.

The U.S. went one step forward and two steps back in their 2-1 feisty setback Thursday evening against Panama. The Yanks looked like they were going to simulate the same game plan against Bolivia, score early and dictate the rest of the match. After Balogun scored a highlight goal their momentum quickly evaporated with a red card being handed out to Timothy Weah in the 18th minute. From that moment on the USMNT had to play on their back heels giving life to Panama with a glorious opportunity to advance to the next round.

Meanwhile, Uruguay has asserted itself as the team to beat in Group C of Copa America, with their dominant performance over Bolivia. The 15-time Copa América winners thrashed Bolivia 5-0, in which it saw five different goal scorers hit the score sheet. The win for La Celeste declared themselves as the proverbial Group C winners with the +6-goal differential they possess in the standings.

Here, we will break down the betting odds and share our favorite picks for USA vs. Uruguay.

USA vs Uruguay Copa America 2024 Prediction

USA vs. Uruguay Betting Odds for Monday, July 1

The books feel this final group match could be another low-scoring bout with the odds that are presented. The over 2.5 goals is priced at +120 while the under 2.5 goals is listed at -150.

USA vs. Uruguay Odds

 The following odds are taken from bet365 Sportsbook. Head over to bet365 to place your bets and claim a bonus: $1,000 Safety Net Bet OR $150 in Bonus Bets.

Game total Odds
Over 2.5 goals +120
Under 2.5 goals -150

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USA vs. Uruguay Betting Prediction

USA Preview

This was the first time in 13 years that USA lost a competitive match on home turf after scoring first which also materialized at the 2011 CONCACAF Gold Cup final against Mexico. With Panama going into their match against Bolivia as favourites, it’s more than likely they will grab three points leaving the Yanks in a do-or-die scenario against the best-looking side in the Copa America so far. USMNT has shown glimpses of brilliance with the class players they have at their disposal, now they will need the game of their lives to defeat Uruguay.

One of the players who has displayed his excellence in both matches for the States is Folarin Balogun. The current top scorer for his country in the tournament will be required once again to hit the back of the net to give the U.S. any hope of advancing to the knockout phase. In 14 international caps for his country, the 22-year-old has buried four goals including two in the 2024 Copa America.

Read our full analysis of USMNT at Copa America 2024, here.

Bet on USA at bet365 Sportsbook 

Uruguay Preview

La Celeste was pegged by the books to finish atop the group after the completion of the first stage of the Copa America. After two matches they have turned the hype into reality, especially with the phenomenal skill that has rewarded them with eight goals. The 14th-ranked country in the world may head into this final group stage affair with a rotated squad, resting their top players for the quarterfinals.

One of the many top performers for Uruguay is the Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez. The 25-year-old is in scorching form with his country bagging five goals in the last three matches wearing the Uruguayan kit. Nunez was one of the most active forwards on the pitch Thursday evening, besides scoring his second goal of the tournament, he also amassed a total of seven shots.

Bet on Uruguay at bet365 Sportsbook 

USA vs. Uruguay - My Pick

As the tournament progresses, we are seeing more matches opening up leading to goals finding their way in the back of the net. In a must-win match, the U.S. will need to go forward in bunches to create anything up, leaving them vulnerable at the back. There is potential that starting keeper Matt Turner may miss this skirmish due to a leg injury that saw him get subbed off at halftime against Panama. Uruguay has shown they can be ruthless around the 18-yard box with the ample opportunities they create. It’s a bit of long-shot but think we can see some fireworks going off with the situational spot both teams are in.

Bet on Over 2.5 Goals (+120) at bet365 

How to Watch USA vs Uruguay

  • When: Monday, July 1 at 9:00 PM ET

  • Where: Arrowhead Stadium

  • TV: Fox Sports, TUDN


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Angelo Zarra

Soccer Betting Analyst

Liga MX
Betting Picks
Hailing from the great white north in Canada, over the last 15 years, Angelo has been wagering on sports and, more specifically, the sport that’s in his blood, soccer. Well-versed in soccer leagues across the globe, keeping tabs on what’s happening in the world of soccer. Since 2022, Angelo has published MLS betting previews on various websites, including on Major League Soccer's official betting page for a short while. Through the power of social media, Angelo has been invited to talk soccer betting on national TV & radio on Sports Grid. In Angelo’s free time, he can be found walking his dog and lounging at home watching any game that's on while enjoying his second favourite thing after sports: food! 
Nationality: Canadian
Education: Accounting and Payroll
Favourite Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: PowerPlay Casino
15 years
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