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With the Mets and Marlins meeting on Monday, a three-hitter hit parlay is enough to get to plus odds. While this type of bet is inherently flawed, there should be a fair amount of confidence in this one hitting. There are two young, inconsistent pitchers on the mound while the three batters named all have an excellent chance of getting a hit.
Nimmo is 3 for 6 in his career against Miami starter Edward Cabrera and is batting .333 over his last seven games. As the leadoff hitter, he should get at least five chances to get one hit. The season is true for Arraez, who is always a safe bet to record at least one hit. He’s currently rocking an eight-game hitting streak and has multiple hits in four of his last five games. Burger is perhaps the wild card of the group, although he’s quietly become one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He’s had at least two hits in four straight games, raising his average from .288 to .306. Both Arraez and Burger will face Jose Butto, who’s had mixed results in both the big leagues and triple-A this year. A pair of hot hitters like Arraez and Burger should be able to manage one hit against him.
Facing the Braves is never easy, which is perhaps why Wheeler is getting plus odds with his strikeout total on Monday. But the Atlanta lineup Wheeler is facing on Monday may not be the same Atlanta lineup that’s dominated the NL East all year. The Braves scored just two runs on Sunday while getting swept by the Marlins, so it’s clear they have taken their foot off the accelerator now that the division title has been wrapped up. Plus, Wheeler is a Georgia native who typically pitches well back home and knows that the Phillies need every win they can get down the stretch.
More importantly, seven strikeouts is well within the realm of possibility for Wheeler, who has 196 strikeouts on the year, making him tied for the 10th most in the big leagues. Oddly enough, Wheeler’s last start came against Atlanta and ended with just four strikeouts. However, his three starts before that all ended with at least seven strikeouts, including a pair of back-to-back starts in which he registered 10 strikeouts. Keep in mind that the last time he faced the Braves in Atlanta back in late May, Wheeler threw eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts. As mentioned, Wheeler pitches well in the state of Georgia and Monday should be another example of that.
Peralta has looked strong down the stretch, especially when it comes to his strikeout total. While the Cardinals aren’t the easy team in the big leagues to strike out, Peralta’s stuff is capable of working against any team. Keep in mind he posted a 2.10 ERA in August and has a 2.55 ERA during his three starts in September. That’s a sign that he’s been at his best late in the year, which should lead to a healthy strikeout total.
Peralta has had six double-digit strikeout games this year, so he’s more than capable of wracking up the K’s, especially since five of those six games have come since the start of July. More recently, Peralta has registered at least seven strikeouts in seven of his last nine games. In fact, Peralta has had at least nine strikeouts in four of his last five outings. He should keep it rolling against an uninspired St. Louis lineup that’s just playing out the season.
Means will be a fascinating pitcher to watch down the stretch. He made his first start of the season last week after making just two starts in 2022. However, the lefty was Baltimore’s ace two years ago before the Orioles got good. He could be an X-factor for the Orioles down the stretch if he can get up to speed. But we’re going to go ahead and fade him against the Astros on Monday.
In his start last week against St. Louis, he only struck out one batter over five innings. That makes the under on 3.5 strikeouts a viable bet. Means has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, averaging less than one per inning during his career. If he runs into trouble against a dynamic Houston lineup, Means may not even last long enough to top 3.5 strikeouts if he can average one per inning. The kicker is that the Astros have the third-fewest strikeouts in baseball this year. With plus odds, it’s worth taking under 3.5 strikeouts for Means on Monday.
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Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.More info on Bryan Zarpentine
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