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Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros: Astros Look To Out-Score Streaking Mariners

Written by: Tony Garcia
Updated October 14, 2022
13 min read
  • Battle of Cy Young winners
  • Astros look to out-score streaking Mariners
  • X-factors to watch

Mariners vs Astros Odds

The odds in red are the best odds available at the time being. Click on the odds below and place your bet on the MLB matchup!

Mariners Vs Astros 2022 07 29 Chas Mccormick

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Mariners vs Astros Pick

There aren’t a lot of hard and fast rules you must stick by when betting sports. Each game is different, but sometimes there are advantages. One of them is betting on the best pitcher who is buoyed by arguably the best lineup in baseball. Houston has won 10 of the past 14 Verlander starts by two runs or more, so we will take that again!

Go with the Astros to cover the spread (+120) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Garcia’s 2022 record: (28-21)

Pick made on 07/28/2022 at 10:45 PM EST

Take a look at the best betting bonuses and promo codes for MLB, here!

  • Mariners are 11-2 in their last 13 during game 2 of a series
  • Mariners are 22-5 in their last 27 games vs a right-handed starter
  • Mariners are 25-6 in their last 31 overall
  • Mariners are 15-5 in their last 20 vs American League West
  • Mariners are 19-7 in their last 26 road games
  • Mariners are 20-6 in their last 26 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
  • Under is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs a right-handed starter
  • Under is 6-2 in Mariners last 8 overall
  • Under is 6-2 in Mariners last 8 vs American League West
  • Astros are 53-24 in their last 77 overall
  • Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series
  • Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs a team with a winning record
  • Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs a left-handed starter
  • Under is 22-5-1 in Astros last 28 games vs a left-handed starter
  • Under is 7-3 in Astros last 10 vs American League West
  • Over is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings in Houston

Mariners vs Astros Predictions

Battle of Cy Young Winners

It’s not often the reigning Cy Young Award winner is the underdog in a pitching matchup, but that’s exactly the case for Seattle’s Robbie Ray.

Ray, in his first year with the Mariners coming off the 2021 AL Cy Young Award with the Blue Jays, has struggled to replicate that success, but is still having a decent season.

The 30-year-old southpaw is 8-7 on the year with a 3.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and ranks seventh in the MLB with 136 strikeouts in 120 innings. Ray had found a groove since mid-June, posting seven consecutive quality starts while lowering his ERA from 4.97 to 3.51, but struggled in his last outing, which also came against the Astros.

He gave up six earned runs in just three innings, allowing 10 hits and recording just one strikeout in an 8-5 loss.

To make matters worse, he goes up against Justin Verlander, who is the front-runner for the Cy Young Award in the American League. The 39-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery is defying the laws of mother nature, somehow getting better as he approaches his age 40 season.

Verlander (13-3) has the best record in the MLB, ranks third in ERA (1.86) and is second in WHIP (0.88). He’s given up just eight total runs in his past eight outings, had quality starts in 10 of his last 11 appearances and has allowed more than one run in a start just once since June 1.

Verlander has faced the Mariners five times and outside of May 27 outing when he gave up six runs in six innings (the worst of the season) he’s given up just four runs in 28.2 innings (1.26 ERA) with 32 strikeouts and four walks.

Check out latest predictions for MLB World Series Winner 2022, here!

Who Has an Offensive Edge?

The Astros recent run of success has largely been predicated on hitting, but this season their offense is only slightly above average.

The pitching is dominant – ranking first in quality starts (54), first in batting average against (.212), second in ERA (3.06) and third in WHIP (1.11). Compare that to their offensive numbers, where they rank 12th in on-base percentage (.316), tied for 13th in runs scored (439) and 19th in batting average (.219).

The saving grace is they do largely hit for power, coming in fifth in slugging percentage (.424), thanks in large part to Yordan Alvarez who leads the team in average (.309), home runs (29), RBIs (67), OBP (.413) and hits (88).

The Mariners are actually a below-average offense, because while they rank in the top 10 in on-base percentage (.319) they don’t capitalize often enough with runners on base, ranking 23rd in baseball in runs (406).

They also struggle against righties with a team .234 batting average and .314 OBP. Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez (3.7 WAR) and fellow all-star Ty France (3.2 WAR) have been the two best players, followed by the left-side of the infield in shortstop J.P Crawford (2.7 WAR) and third baseman Eugenio Suarez (2.2 WAR).

X-Factors to Watch

It’s hard enough to hit Justin Verlander, so we’re looking for somebody who has the power to run into a home run or enough speed to cause problems when he gets on the bases. That’s Crawford, who has a .352 OBP this month.

For the Astros, we’re going off the beaten path and choosing Chas McCormick, who feasts on left-handed pitching. The outfielder is hitting .343 (23-for-67) vs. southpaws this season with a team-best .421 OBP and 1.003 OPS.

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How to Watch Mariners vs Astros

Teams Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
Location Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
Time Friday, July 29, 8:10 p.m. EST
How to watch AT&T SportsNet Southwest, ROOT Sports Northwest
Image for Tony Garcia


Tony Garcia

180 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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