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New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds: The Mets Are One of the Best Teams in Baseball

Written by: Tony Garcia
Updated October 14, 2022
13 min read
  • Scherzer’s long awaited return 
  • Can Reds offense keep up with Mets
  • X-factors to watch

Mets vs Reds Odds

Mets Vs Reds 2022 07 05 Starling Marte

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Mets vs Reds Pick

The Mets are one of the best teams in baseball and the Reds are one of the worst, so on the surface this seems like a very obvious pick but with the odds where they are, it’s worth taking a pause. Scherzer wasn’t exactly sharp in his rehab starts, with a 4.50 ERA over two games, but still he’s a top five arm in the league. The Mets are just 3-4 in their last seven and 5-6 in their last 11, but still have too much firepower against a rookie pitcher.

The Mets to cover the spread (-125)

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  • Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a team with a winning % below .400
  • Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 vs National League Central
  • Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs a left-handed starter
  • Mets are 12-5 in their last 17 games vs a left-handed starter
  • Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs National League Central
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5
  • Over is 5-2-2 in Mets last 9 road games
  • Mets are 33-14 in the last 47 head-to-head meetings
  • Under is 3-0-2 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings
  • Reds are 5-16 in their last 21 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 overall
  • Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 home games
  • Reds are 1-8 in their last 9 home games vs a right-handed starter
  • Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 vs National League East
  • Over is 10-0-1 in Reds last 11 games vs a team with a winning % above .600
  • Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5
  • Under is 5-2 in Reds last 7 home games vs a right-handed starter

Garcia’s 2022 record: (24-15)

Mets vs Reds Predictions

Long Awaited Return for Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer has not pitched for 47 days for the Mets, but that changes Tuesday when he will start against the Reds. The dominant right-hander has been sidelined since he strained his oblique on May 18 but had been dominant prior to the injury.

In his age 37 season (he turns 38 at the end of this month), fresh off a three-year, $130 million contract, Scherzer has gone 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and 59 strikeouts in 49.2 innings.

He’d allowed more than three runs in just one of his eight starts and has gone seven innings three times. Still, there may be a little bit of rust he needs to knock off as he works his way back. He made two rehab starts for Double-A Binghamton and gave up four runs in eight combined innings on seven hits and two walks with 14 strikeouts.

Not to mention, he won the team over when he bought the whole squad a $7000 steak and lobster dinner after his last outing and bought each player a pair of airpods.

On the flipside, he’s countered by rookie left-hander Nick Lodolo who is making just his fourth career start. The 24-year-old thus far is 1-2 with a 5.52 ERA and has constantly worked in traffic, with a 1.57 WHIP.

That said, he comes off his best start yet, when he gave up just one earned run in 5.2 innings on five hits with no walks and seven strikeouts in a 4-1 victory over the Cardinals.

Take a look at the best bets and predictions for MLB World Series, here!

Reds Offense Hoping to Keep Pace

Not only are the Reds facing one of the best pitchers in baseball, they have one of the worst offenses. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Cincinnati has scored more than four runs just three times in its past 18 games and doesn’t have a single qualified hitter batting better than .280 this season.

Brandon Drury has been the best hitter on the team this year, batting .270 with 17 home runs and 45 RBIs with an .864 OPS, but his numbers aren’t as good against righties, hitting .245 with an .804 OPS.

The Mets offense has also been slowed a bit of late. Monday was the first time they’d scored more than five runs in a contest in their past 11 games, but overall they still are having a fantastic year, ranking fourth in the league in batting average and on-base percentage and seven in runs scored.

X-Factors to Watch

The x-factor to watch for New York is without question Starling Marte, who has dominated left-handed pitching all year long. A .282 hitter on the season, Marte is batting .325 against southpaws with a .918 OPS.

For Cincinnati, keep an eye on shortstop Kyle Farmer. He does struggle against righties, hitting just .235 this season, but he’s been great at home, batting .283 with four of his five home runs coming at Great American Ball Park. He has an .862 OPS in home games.

See who is the top pick for National League Cy Young Awards 2022, here!

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How to Watch Mets vs Reds

Mets vs Reds Information
Teams New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Location Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Time Tuesday, July 5, 6:40 p.m. EST
How to watch SportsNet NY
Image for Tony Garcia


Tony Garcia

180 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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