MLS Top Goal Scorer Odds and Predictions: Lionel Messi Now Penciled in to Claim Most Goals

Checking into the Golden Boot race, the MLS is known for its parity and surprise results, dating back to 2012 we have witnessed 13 different players have recorded the personal accolade to be crowned the league's top scorer.

• Lionel Messi now has some competition in the scoring chase, with the emergence of Sam Surridge and various contenders who have stockpiled goals of late

•  MLS has no shortage of players who can find the back of the net, with 13 different players obtaining nine or more goals in 2026

Finding the back of the net in 29 instances during his 28 regular season appearances in the previous term, Lionel Messi clinched the MLS 2025 Golden Boot, adding another award to his extensive resume. The winner of the individual award is decided before the playoff season begins.  

Below we share our pick to win the 2026 MLS Cup, the latest trends, and other information to help you pick a winner this season.

MLS Top Goal Scorer Odds

The odds have been taken from BetRivers Sportsbook. Sign up with BetRivers promo code SPORTS and claim your welcome bonus: $100 Bonus Bet.

MLS Top Goal Scorer Predictions 

Following the same scenario as last year's competition, Lionel Messi is once again pegged by the oddsmakers to finish at the top of the scoring chart after match day 34 when the regular season concludes. The Argentinian legend remained healthy throughout the 2025 campaign which facilitated a successful year scoring on a pace that saw him average just over a goal per game. The likelihood of the iconic No. 10 repeating the previous term's output is fully contingent on his health and how many maintenance load management days Messi will receive. Since becoming a Vice City employee in 2023, to no surprise the 38-year -old has emerged possessing one of the hottest boots, amassing 69 league goals across 76 appearances. It’s worth noting no player in MLS history has repeated as the scoring champion in consecutive seasons.

Following Messi there are some quality candidates to claim the 2026 golden boot. Both Dennis Bouanga and Sam Surridge trailed Messi in 2025, recording 24 goals each. For Bouanga, he has more of an opportunity to reach the summit over Surridge just on the basis the LAFC star has a solid supporting cast around him to help breach the keeper frequently. Surridge is a worthy candidate also in the Golden Boot chase as he has been inside the top five almost third into the MLS campaign.

Surprising omissions from the oddsmakers in the top 10 are a pair of players after match day 15 with nine goals apiece. Both Kévin Denkey (FC Cincinnati) and Prince Owusu (CF Montreal) have exceeded expectations this campaign. If their consistent form continues, they could become threats in the Golden Boot chase.

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2025 MLS Golden Boot - My Pick 

Denis Bouanga (+2500) at BetRivers

Since his arrival to MLS, all Denis Bouanga has done is breach the opposing keeper, cataloging goals on a frequent basis. The star striker is off to a slower start compared to years past, but he can flip the switch on a dime when he takes to pitch. Bouanga has already etched his name in league history, claiming the Golden Boot in 2023, which saw him find the back of the net in 24 instances. The 31-year-old has strung three consecutive seasons of surpassing the 20-goal plateau.

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MLS Golden Boot History

Since 1996 there have been 26 different Golden Boot winners in MLS, prior to 2005 MLS used a point system that awarded two points for a goal and one point for an assist to establish the MLS Golden Boot winner.

Only five players who have only won twice in league history Preki with the Kansas City Wizards (1997,2003) now Sporting Kansas City, Taylor Twellman (2002,2005) of the New England Revolution, Jeff Cunningham (2006,2009) with Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas, Chris Wondolowski (2010,2012) with the San Jose Earthquakes and Bradley Wright-Phillips (2014,2016) with the New York Red Bulls are the multi Golden Boot winners.

Below is a list of the previous winners of the MLS Golden Boot in the last ten years

How to Bet on the 2026 MLS Top Goal Scorer

Simple and easy, head over to your preferred online sportsbooks and navigate the MLS page. From there you will see a "Futures" tab, this is where you can wager on who you think will claim the 2026 MLS Golden Boot.

Before placing your wager, we recommend betting within your limit and do some homework on what's trending with team news and injuries to star players across the league.

How to Read the 2026 MLS Top Goal Scorer

Especially if you're new to sports betting, reading the indicated odds can be overwhelming and confusing or if you are used to using a decimal or fraction system.

It’s quite easy to get the hang of it after a few minutes on studying how the read odds. The American system is basic, it uses a model where the plus sign (+) indicates the team is the underdog while the minus sign (-) means they are the favorite. If you see a team with no minus sign then the team with the lowest plus sign is considered the favourites. Numbers are based on $100 bets for example -120 means you need to bet $120 to win $100. +120 means if you bet $100, you'll win $120.

Where to Bet on the 2026 MLS Top Goal Scorer

In a growing industry, there is no shortage of soccer betting sites to choose from when placing your MLS Golden Boot winner.

We are using BetRivers Sportsbook as our preferred betting site for the MLS Top Goalscorer. Sign up for a BetRivers account and claim your welcome offer: $100 Bonus Bet. Find more info in our BetRivers Sportsbook review.

Another great alternative website to use is DraftKings Sportsbook. Sign up for a DraftKings account today and claim your welcome bonus: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly. More info on this offer can be found in our detailed DraftKings Sportsbook review.

If you are located in a state where BetRivers or DraftKings are not yet legal, you can use some of the best prediction market apps like Kalshi. Sign up for an account with our Kalshi promo code WSN and claim your bonus: Get $10 When You Trade 100 Contracts.