Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
|Martin Truex Jr,||+850
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After last Sunday’s free-for-all at Talladega Superspeedway, the NASCAR Cup Series heads for Dover Motor Speedway, a demanding, high-speed concrete track that will tax the world’s best stock car drivers to their limits.
Sunday’s DuraMAX Drydene 400 will be contested over 400 laps (400 miles), with stage breaks scheduled after 120 and 250 laps. Alex Bowman is the defending winner of the race.
One glance at the betting board for Sunday’s DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway will tell you all you need to know—the oddsmakers love Hendrick Motorsports.
Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series race (+350 via DraftKings Sportsbook), followed closely by Hendrick teammates Chase Elliott (+550), Alex Bowman (+650) and William Byron (+650).
We think the odds are tilted too heavily toward the preeminent Chevrolet team. A better value is Martin Truex Jr. (+850), who calls Dover his home track because it’s the closest venue on the Cup circuit to his Mayetta, New Jersey, home town.
Truex got his maiden Cup victory at the Monster Mile in 2007. He also won there in 2016 and 2019. In the past 10 races at Dover Truex has two wins, three second-place finishes, a third and two fourths.
When Truex wins at Dover, he wins by a lot. His 7.355-second victory margin in 2007 was the smallest in his three triumphs. If he has speed in the No. 19 Toyota in Saturday’s practice and qualifying, he’s likely to be a contender on Sunday.
Since then, the cupboard has been bare for the 2014 series champion. With last Sunday’s 10th-place finish at Talladega, Harvick extended his current winless streak to 53 races.
But Dover, a track that rewards experience, offers him the opportunity to break that frustrating skein. Harvick has won three of the last 12 races at the track. In his last seven starts, he has finished no worse than sixth.
And at +1200 via DraftKings, he’s attractively priced. So go for it—particularly if Truex doesn’t qualify well on Saturday.
Pay close attention to the winner of the pole position in Saturday’s time trials for the DuraMAX Drydene 400—and avoid him like the plague when you’re betting on Sunday’s race.
The pole winner hasn’t converted the top starting spot into a victory since Jimmie Johnson turned the trick in 2010. Since then, the Dover pole sitter has been winless for 21 straight races.
The second-place qualifier? Now that’s another matter entirely. Starting on the outside of the front row is the closest thing you can find to a ticket to Victory Lane.
Since Johnson won from the pole in 2010, seven drivers have triumphed from the second-place starting position. In the last 10 races, pole runners-up have won a remarkable five times.
That’s food for thought, and so is this: in the last 28 races at the Monster Mile, only four times has the eventual winner started outside the top 15. In the last two races at Dover, Kevin Harvick won from 17th and Alex Bowman 16th, but in both cases the field was set without time trials.
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|DuraMAX Drydene 400 Information|
|Race||DuraMAX Drydene 400 NASCAR Cup Series race|
|Location||Dover Motor Speedway|
|Time||Sunday, May 1, 3 p.m. ET|
|How to Watch||FS1|
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Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]More info on Reid Spencer
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