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The undefeated No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs will host the 7-1 No. 12 Missouri Tigers in an SEC showdown fit for a king on Saturday afternoon.
UGA and Mizzou are ranked first and second in the SEC East division, UGA at 5-0 and Mizzou at 3-1. The Tigers’ lone loss was against No. 23 LSU a few weeks ago, 49-39, while Georgia has not tasted defeat and is coming off a 43-20 win over Florida.
Here, we’ll look at the betting odds and share our thoughts and favorite picks for the matchup.
Georgia is a 15-point favorite against Missouri this weekend. The Bulldogs are used to being large favorites and having a target on their back, but they’re only 2-5-1 against the spread thus far.
|No. 12 Mizzou||+15 (-110)||+490||Over 54.5 (-112)|
|No. 5 Georgia||-15 (-110)||-675||Under 54.5 (-108)|
Georgia went through a multitude of changes on both sides of the ball after winning back-to-back national championships. They’re still ranked seventh in scoring at 40.5 points per game (including 36.4 against SEC opponents) but have several challenges they’ll have to overcome at the weekend.
Tight end and former Heisman candidate Brock Bowers needed surgery on an ankle injury and will miss the game. Quarterback Carson Beck (2,462 yards, 14 touchdowns, four interceptions) played well in his first game without his star tight end, putting up 315 yards, two touchdowns, and an 87.8 QBR against the Gators’ defense, but it remains to be seen how he’ll hold up over the long haul.
Running back Daijun Edwards scampered for 96 yards and two scores last week. He’s averaging 92.7 yards per game and has cracked the end zone eight times while averaging 5.9 yards per carry.
One of the most impressive aspects of the Bulldogs’ offense is their ability to convert third downs. Their 56.3% success rate is bested only by LSU and Michigan.
Georgia’s defense ranks eighth in total defense and seventh in points allowed per game (14.8). That’s despite having a very small presence rushing the passer since they’re only 75th in average sacks (two).
Missouri is coming off a 34-12 win against South Carolina. They’re 2-1 against ranked opponents but have lost their last nine matchups against Georgia.
QB Brady Cook has thrown for 2,259 yards, 15 touchdowns, and three interceptions, though he only managed one TD in each of the last two weeks. Running back Cody Schrader averages 100.9 yards per game and has scored nine times, including eight in the last five weeks.
Missouri is 27th in average scoring (33.9) but 52nd in average points allowed (23.3 - 25.7 in conference play). They struggle to defend the pass (62nd - 226 yards allowed per game) but are stout on the line and can stop the run (26th - 112.2 yards allowed per game).
Although Mizzou’s defense pales in comparison to Georgia, they held Vanderbilt, No. 24 Kentucky, and South Carolina to an average of 18 points. The only objectively bad game they played was against LSU, which averages more points per game than any other school.
A lot of this game will come down to how Beck functions against a team that can slow down the UGA running game and without Bowers in the lineup.
The Georgia defense, despite its rankings, is also not as strong as it was the past couple of seasons. It will have to turn back the block and either force turnovers or sacks against a QB that has protected the ball well this season.
Mizzou has played very well on both sides and is 5-3 against the spread in 2023. Even in their one loss, during which they gave up a whopping 274 yards rushing, they managed to gain 527 yards and put up 39 points against LSU’s defense. Georgia has been dominant since it almost lost to Auburn but is getting a hungry team in good form.
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Georgia is a near-lock to do its part to hit the over, so it really depends on whether Mizzou can match. Vanderbilt and Florida both put up 20 in the last two weeks against UGA’s defense, which gives us reason to believe the Tigers can do the same.
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Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
When: Saturday, Nov. 4, 3:30 p.m. ET
Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.More info on Grant Mitchell
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