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NCAAB Picks Against the Spread: CBB Teams to Target This Week

Written by: Andrew Norton
Updated November 6, 2024
8 min read
NCAAB Picks Against the Spread 2024

Because most betting lines for college basketball games don’t drop until the night before, determining which teams have positive trends, impressive statistics, and ideal upcoming matchups can often be challenging for the non-professional bettor due to time restraints.

Our NCAAB Picks page hopes to bridge the gap between the frustrating wait on betting lines that we all experience for college basketball games and the time required to delve into a matchup to adequately evaluate it by highlighting the hottest teams in the country and in which particular spots they might be good to back.

While it can be challenging to predict exactly where a line might open, this page will be a helpful resource and hub for the most important statistics and trends, allowing you to make more informed betting decisions.

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College Basketball Picks: Teams to Target ATS This Week

UConn Huskies (+1000, FanDuel)

2023-24 Record: 37-3 (18-2, first in Big East standings)

Key Acquisitions: Aidan Mahaney, Liam McNeeley, Tarris Reed Jr., Isaiah Abraham, Ahmad Nowell

Key Returners: Alex Karaban, Hassan Diarra, Solomon Ball, Samson Johnson

Key Departures: Cam Spencer, Stephon Castle, Donovan Clingan, Tristen Newton

Stats & Trends:

  • Back-to-back National Champions (2022-23, 2023-24)

  • 1st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin

  • 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency

  • Won every NCAA Tournament game by double-digits for the second consecutive season

Yes, UConn lost a ton of talent to the NBA, including Tristen Newton, Stephon Castle, Cam Spencer, and Donovan Clingan, but we have seen a similar story play out before the season before last.

In fact, the Huskies sent their top two scorers (Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins) from the 2022-23 team as well as their best defender and connective piece (Andre Jackson Jr) to the NBA but still managed to come back and dominate the following year.

In fact, the Huskies won their second consecutive NCAA Tournament championship last season after crushing all six of their opponents by double-digits once again. 

So, what does the team look like this season? And what can we expect?

For one, Hurley got an unexpected returner back in Alex Karaban, one of the best and most efficient scoring forwards in the country. 

On a team that finished first in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, Karaban still managed to post 13.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game on roughly 50% shooting from the field, 39% from behind the arc, and 89% from the charity stripe.

Karaban gives UConn a proven primary scorer who can score late in the shot clock.

Hurley and the Huskies also return Hassan Diarra (6.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.4 APG), Solomon Ball (3.3 PPG), and Samson Johnson (5.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG), three key bench pieces to their championship run last year.

Those returners alone would make UConn a Big East championship contender once again, but Hurley left nothing to chance by getting busy in the transfer portal and on the recruiting trail.

Hurley grabbed Saint Mary’s star point guard Aidan Mahaney (13.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.6 APG) and Michigan’s physical center Tarris Reed Jr (9.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG) in the portal and stole 5-star freshman forward Liam McNeeley from the Indiana Hoosiers after he decommitted. 

Reed can play a similar role to Sanogo a few seasons ago, while Mahaney can take on the workload that Cam Spencer leaves behind.

But here’s the bottom line: Hurley’s teams do a fantastic job in covering the spread.

During their 2023-24 campaign, the Huskies covered the spread in 28 of their 40 games for an absurd 70% cover rate. That placed them fourth in the nation behind only Stony Brook, Minnesota, and Texas-Arlington.

How about the season before?

UConn actually finished with a 27-11-1 ATS record, which was the second-best cover rate nationally. Only Utah Valley had a better ATS record.

Throughout the season, the Huskies will be a good bet against the spread. They could actually be slightly undervalued due to the high roster turnover.

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Gonzaga Bulldogs (+2000, FanDuel)

2023-24 Record: 27-8 (14-2, second in West Coast Conference standings)

Key Acquisitions: Michael Ajayi, Khalif Battle, Emmanuel Innocenti

Key Returners: Nolan Hickman, Ryan Nembhard, Graham Ike, Braden Huff, Dusty Stromer, Ben Gregg, Steele Venters

Key Departures: Anton Watson

Stats & Trends:

  • 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency in 2023-24, per KenPom

  • 2nd in field goal percentage in 2023-24

  • 19th in assists per game, 26th in turnovers per game

Are you a believer now?

The Gonzaga Bulldogs just decimated the eighth-ranked Baylor Bears by 38 points. No, that is not a typo.

Baylor has an incredibly talented roster, but the ‘Zags looked like the best team in the country on Monday, shooting 57.1% from the floor and 41.9% from 3-point land.

But this shouldn’t surprise anyone, considering they had the second-most efficient offense in the country last season (second in KenPom’s adjO metric).

And they returned six of their top seven scorers, including Graham Ike, Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, Braden Huff, Ben Gregg, and Dusty Stromer.

Add transfers Khalif Battle and Michael Ajayi into the equation, and the ‘Zags could be virtually unstoppable. Few teams in the country have the depth, cohesion, and scoring talent of Gonzaga.

Gonzaga’s next game will be this upcoming Sunday against the Arizona State Sun Devils, who will certainly not be a pushover, as they rank 69th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metric and 66th in BartTorvik’s power rankings.

I’d caution bettors on the “letdown game” approach entering this matchup. This will technically be Gonzaga’s first home game despite the fact that the neutral site where it played Baylor was also in Spokane, Washington.

Further, the Bulldogs have six days between games to help refine the very few shortcomings they had in the Baylor game. Having an extra day rest advantage on Arizona State could be an even bigger edge for the ‘Zags.

The newfound depth of this Gonzaga team also means that if this game becomes a blowout, they won’t necessarily be giving points back to opponents late in games. 

While their ninth, tenth, and 11th players off the bench are not going to destroy weaker opponents’ top units, they shouldn’t be too susceptible to giving up the backdoor cover.

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Indiana Hoosiers (+5500, FanDuel)

2023-24 Record: 19-14 (10-10, sixth in Big Ten standings)

Key Acquisitions: Oumar Ballo, Kanaan Carlyle, Myles Rice, Langdon Hatton, Luke Goode

Key Returners: Trey Galloway, Malik Reneau, Mackenzie Mgbako, Gabe Cupps, Anthony Leal

Key Departures: Kel’el Ware, Xavier Johnson, Anthony Walker

Stats & Trends:

  • 353rd (out of 362 teams) in 3PAs in 2023-24

  • 59th in 2P% in 2023-24

  • 91st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin

Sure, the road game against the 12th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers last week was just an “exhibition for charity.” However, the Hoosiers went into hostile territory in Knoxville and came away with a road victory against a fringe-top-ten team in the country.

And Indiana did this without super senior guard Trey Galloway (10.6 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.9 RPG in 2023-24), 5-star freshman Bryson Tucker, and guard Jakai Newton. You can’t say that is not impressive.

Myles Rice (20 points, 4 assists) looked incredibly explosive yet patient against the best on-ball defender in the country (Zakai Zeigler) while Malik Reneau (21 points, 8 rebounds) has clearly taken another step toward being able to stretch his game out to the perimeter as a power forward.

Here’s where it gets crazier: the Hoosiers missed their first 11 3-point attempts. While that could continue to discourage bettors from feeling comfortable backing Indiana, I’d take the exact opposite position.

Head coach Mike Woodson has been vocal about the need to improve 3-point shooting and that should continue into this season. Perimeter shooting won’t ever be the primary or preferred scoring method for this team, but they can certainly improve their efficiency in the attempts they do take.

The addition of Luke Goode (38.9% from 3 in 2023-24) and continued shooting progression of Mackenzie Mgbako, Gabe Cupps, Kanaan Carlyle, Rice, and others should help boost IU’s 3-point average throughout the season

This week, the Hoosiers face the SIU Edwardsville Cougars (Wednesday) and Eastern Illinois Panthers (Sunday).

These two games will be blowouts of epic proportion, as SIU Edwardsville (321st in KenPom’s adjEM) and Eastern Illinois (340th in adjEM) are two of the worst teams in the country.

Expect the Hoosiers’ offense to spring to life now that they have adequate guard play. They should be undervalued for at least the first few games, so take advantage of their betting lines now.

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Andrew Norton WSN

Andrew Norton

Sports Betting Analyst

Expertise:
NCAAB
Betting Picks
Andrew has always been an avid sports fan and followed his hoop dreams all the way to college. He’s well-versed in everything betting with multiple years of experience and is qualitatively and quantitatively knowledgeable in sports statistics and analytics.
Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience: 5 years
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