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Best MLB Bets Today: Guardians and Royals Look to Continue Surprising Starts

Written by: Michael Savio
Published April 10, 2024
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today 04 10 2024

We have seen a lot of surprises over the first couple of weeks of the season, two of which are from the AL Central Division. The Royals and Guardians own records about the .500 mark, showing that the league’s weakest division may not be as bad as thought.

Both teams will look to stay hot today. The Guardians will go first with a matchup against a terrible White Sox team, followed by the Royals playing host to an underperforming Astros squad.

Below, we will share our favorite bet for each game. All odds will be provided by BetMGM Sportsbook, which is currently offering new bettors a $1,500 First Bet Offer* when using promo code WSNMGM.

For more betting opportunities check our list of the best MLB betting sites and curated list of MLB promos and bonuses.

Best MLB Bets Today: White Sox vs. Guardians (6:10 PM EST)

Guardians -1.5 (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The Guardians and White Sox are two teams on very different paths. The White Sox dropped nine of their first ten games, a run that includes being swept by the Royals in a four-game series. Chicago has a combined batting average of .190 and an OBP of .267. Things haven’t been much better. The pitching has been a little better, but their defense ranks twenty-third with a .977 fielding percentage.

The Guardians have been far better than Chicago in pretty much every category. They currently rank in the top ten in batting average (.268 BA) and pitching (2.05 ERA) and are in the middle of the pack in fielding percentage (.986). That success has led them to skyrocket to the top of the division, suddenly making them look like the favorite.

Aside from the massive divide between the talent and results, the Guardians also have a significant advantage on the mound tonight in Tanner Bibee. The 25-year-old had a fantastic rookie season in 2023, going 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA over 25 starts. While he had a rough first start against the A’s in 2024, he was near-perfect against the Twins a week ago. Bibee allowed one run (a solo HR) on five hits and zero walks across 5 ⅓ innings, striking out nine. That was a far better offense than he’ll see today, and we think it leads to a stellar start.

Bet on Guardians at BetMGM CTA icon

Best MLB Bets Today: Astros vs. Royals (7:40 PM EST)

Over 9 (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook )

While these are two very different teams, tonight’s pitching matchup will make this a close game. The Royals have gotten off to an impressive start, thanks to a solid lineup and pitching that has overperformed early in the season. One of those pitchers will be on the bump tonight: Seth Lugo. The veteran was a very good starter for the Padres last season and has carried that momentum into 2024. He is 1-0 across two starts, allowing just one run over 12 ⅔ innings. 

We are betting against Lugo tonight because of his history against the Astros. The 34-year-old was shelled by them in 2023, giving up six runs on seven hits across 4 ⅓ innings. In addition to last year’s fiasco, the Houston lineup owns impressive numbers against the star, with a .423 batting average, .500 OBP, and .654 slugging percentage over 26 at-bats. Houston has one of the best lineups in baseball, and they’ll show that against Lugo tonight.

While the Royals don’t have the same firepower as the Astros, they will face an easy test with Hunter Brown on the mound. The Astros called Brown a full-time rotation member in 2023, but he finished with an 11-13 record and a 5.09 ERA. Things haven’t improved in 2024, with Brown going 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP across two starts (7 IP). Kansas City has the bats to beat up on bad pitching, and that’s precisely what they’ll do tonight.

Place your bet on Over 9 at BetMGM CTA icon


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Michael Savio

477 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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