Best NRFI Bets Today: Pablo Lopez in a Position to Thrive

With the Tampa Bay Rays struggling to make contact at a league average rate, the Minnesota Twins Pablo Lopez has the opportunity to continue his ascension up the AL Cy Young oddsboard by putting together a dominant performance. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals as negative regression looms large over both lineups with a pair of productive arms set to take the mound.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Pablo Lopez vs. Drew Rasmussen (1:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though his current odds to win the AL Cy Young award don’t reflect it, Pablo Lopez has been very productive since the start of the regular season as the Minnesota Twins pitcher is averaging an ERA of 2.31, a WHIP of 0.967, a FIP of 2.42, and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. A very high level of play, especially when factoring in how poor his back end has performed as the Twins defense currently ranks 20th in Defensive Efficiency and 22nd in Fielding Percentage.

Fortunately for Lopez, he possesses more than enough arm talent to neutralize Tampa Bay’s offense as the Rays enter the contest ranked near the bottom of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Their aggression has played a major role in their struggles as the Rays also rank 23rd in Bases on Walks and 16th in Strikeout Rate. Expect Lopez to exploit their struggles with making contact and record zero Earned Runs in the first inning of their contest.

Like Lopez, Drew Rasmussen has the opportunity to get off to a hot start as he faces off against a Twins offense who ranks well below league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Rasmussen has excelled at avoiding contact this season as he takes the mound averaging an ERA of 2.60, a FIP of 3.72, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Rasmussen also receives a high level of support from his defense as the Rays back end currently leads the league in Defensive Efficiency.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals - Hunter Greene vs. Noah Cameron (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at BetMGM Sportsbook

In his brief appearances, Noah Cameron has been lights out as the Kansas City Royals pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 0.93, a WHIP of 0.672, and a FIP of 3.90. Even though the sample size is small, Cameron is in a great position to sustain his high level of play as he is supported by a back end who ranks 10th in Defensive Efficiency.

Against the Cincinnati Reds, Cameron will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start as he faces off against Elly de la Cruz and Santiago Espinal who both average less than one Hit per game in the top of their order. Especially with his back end grading out well in coverage as it helps limit the amount of contact variance in his starts which increases his chances of keeping a clean sheet.

On the other side of the field, Hunter Greene faces off against a Royals offense who struggles with getting into scoring position as their lineup ranks below league average in On Base Percentage, Total Runs Scored, and in RBIs. Expect Greene to continue to hold the Royals off the bases as he currently averages an ERA of 2.54, a WHIP of 0.846, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cleveland Guardians - Clayton Kershaw vs. Slade Cecconi - Positive regression looms large over the Cleveland Guardians offense as they face off against Clayton Kershaw who is currently averaging an ERA of 7.50, a WHIP of 1.500, a FIP of 6.24, and nearly one Earned Run per Inning Pitched.

• Athletics vs. Houston Astros - Luis Severino vs. Lance McCullers Jr - With Lance McCullers Jr averaging over two runners on base per Inning Pitched and a FIP of 6.07, his struggles on the mound are poised to persist in a AL West divisional matchup against the Athletics as he faces off against an offense who ranks above league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

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