New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves: This Might Be the Best Matchup Before the All-Star Break

Written by: Tony Garcia
Updated October 14, 2022
5 min read
  • Two of games best go head to head
  • Can big bats get going vs aces on the  mound?
  • X-factors to watch

Mets vs Braves Odds

Mets Vs Braves 2022 07 11 Michael Harris

Mets vs Braves Pick

Something’s got to give in this matchup. The Mets don’t lose consecutive games very often (they’re 25-6 in their past 31 games after a loss) but the Braves are 5-0 the last five times they’ve faced a righty at home. Max Fried has been dialed in for Atlanta for months while Max Scherzer is working his way back for the Mets. Still, his competitive juices will be flowing and runs will be at a premium in this one.

Atlanta Braves (+165)

Under 7 (-105)

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  • Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 Monday games
  • Mets are 25-6 in their last 31 games following a loss
  • Mets are 23-6 in their last 29 during game 1 of a series
  • Mets are 19-7 in their last 26 vs National League East
  • Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 overall
  • Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record
  • Over is 6-1-1 in Mets last 8 Monday games
  • Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 games vs a left-handed starter
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 vs a team with a winning record
  • Over is 7-3-2 in Mets last 12 road games
  • Mets are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta
  • Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs a right-handed starter
  • Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
  • Braves are 21-7 in their last 28 games following a win
  • Braves are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs a right-handed starter
  • Braves are 36-15 in their last 51 overall
  • Under is 7-0 in Braves last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
  • Under is 9-1 in Braves last 10 home games
  • Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 games vs a right-handed starter
  • Under is 11-3 in Braves last 14 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5

Garcia’s 2022 record: (25-17)

Mets vs Braves Predictions

Watch the Aces at Work

This might be the best matchup over this final stretch before the All-Star break. Scherzer, one of the best pitchers of the generation, is facing off against Max Fried who would be in the top five in Cy Young voting if the season ended today. Let’s start with a look at Fried and just how good he’s been this season. The southpaw has thrown a quality start in 13 of his past 15 outings this year and has given up just one run 13.2 innings through two starts in July, allowing just 10 hits and 1 walk with eight strikeouts.

On the year, the 28-year-old is 9-2 (T-5th) with a 2.52 ERA (10th), 1.02 WHIP (12th) and has 100 strikeouts across 107.1 innings. Fried has already faced the Mets once this season, picking up a win back on May 2 when he allowed just two runs in six innings. He’s allowed more than two runs just one time in his past nine starts.

Scherzer, meanwhile, is still working his way back from injury. The three-time Cy Young Award winner made his first start in nearly two months against the Reds last week and was essentially flawless, allowing no runs on just two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts.

He’s made just nine starts this year, but has looked every bit the part of the usual All Star pitcher he is – going 5-1 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and racking up 70 strikeouts with just 11 walks in 55.2 innings.

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Can the Bats Get Going?

If Sunday was any indication for the Mets, the answer might be no. New York faced the best pitcher in baseball so far this season, Sandy Alcantra, and got absolutely shut down. The Mets were shutout for 10 innings including seven by the Marlins ace.

Still, they obviously have a number of big bats who can do damage at anytime.

Starling Marte has dominated lefties this year with a .337/.384/.583 slash line while five other batters (Eduardo Escobar, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil) have and OPS above .700 with at least 70 at bats.

The Braves are also red hot, sitting at 21 games above .500 over their past 51 contests and have gone 8-2 in their past 10.

Matt Olson had a solid series the first time these two met, while he went just 3-for-13 at the plate, each hit went for extra bases (two doubles and a home run) while putting out a 1.027 OPS and four RBIs. He has 34 extra-base hits against right-handed pitching this season and an .864 OPS.

X-Factors to Watch

For Atlanta, we’re going to watch Michael Harris II. Almost nobody has been hotter than the rookie since he’s been called up – who is just 21-years-old and is hitting .300 with seven home runs, 24 RBIs and an .851 OPS in 41 games. This might be his toughest test yet.

On the other side, Brandon Nimmo is coming off a tremendous week. The centerfielder hit three home runs and had eight RBIs in his past seven games, batting .276 with a team-best six runs scored.

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How to Watch Mets vs Braves

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Information
Teams New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Location Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
Time Monday, July 11, 7:10 p.m. EST
How to watch Fox Sports 1, Bally Sports South, SportsNet New York
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Image for Tony Garcia

Tony Garcia

Sports Betting Analyst

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Tony writes about baseball for after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Journalism
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