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Clemson held both New Mexico and Baylor to under 65 points
Arizona has allowed the lowest field goal percentage and third-lowest three-point percentage
The Wildcats are third in the country in scoring
Of all the Sweet 16 matchups this week, Arizona Clemson is one of our favorites. It features a powerhouse Arizona facing off against a Clemson team playing as well as anyone in the country. A quick look at the stats may show this as a lopsided matchup, but momentum matters in March.
Below, we’ll share everything you need to bet on tonight’s game. We will cover the latest odds, insights, and our favorite bet on Arizona vs Clemson.
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The Wildcats have been one of the best teams in the country all season, and they’ve shown it in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. However, they have yet to face a true test. Arizona easily dispatched Long Beach State in their first game and withstood a late comeback from a disappointing Dayon team. While Clemson is far from a powerhouse, they will be the Wildcats' most challenging test yet.
Arizona has dominated this season, thanks to its offense. It was one of the best offensive teams in the country, allowing it to overwhelm most of the teams it faced. However, the Wildcats faltered twice against a good Washington State defense. That has given teams a blueprint to contain them, which Dayon implemented in the second round.
While the Wildcats aren’t known for their defense, they do not give up many easy shots. They allowed the lowest field goal percentage (42.0%) and third-lowest three-point percentage (33%) in the Pac-12. They showed their defensive skill against Dayton, and it helped them hold on for the win.
Few teams have looked better than Clemson through the first two rounds. They trounced a very good New Mexico team in the first round and beat an ever-better Baylor team in the second. While both wins were impressive, the victory over Baylor resonated more with us.
The Tigers dominated most of the game, but the Bears made a run with a couple of minutes left, cutting the game to two points with 29 seconds remaining. The Tigers remained calm and went 6-6 from the free-throw line. That kind of composure can be rare in college basketball. We saw a lot of teams choke under the same pressure that Clemson faced, showing the mental toughness of this team.
Clemson’s success in the tournament has come from its defense. It faced two high-scoring offenses, New Mexico (80.7 PPG) and Baylor (80.4 PPG), and both were held to under 65 points. The Tigers weren’t known for their defense during the season, but it has stood tall against two significant challenges. That bodes well for their matchup with an Arizona team that was third in the country in scoring (87.6 PPG).
We don’t know if they will win, but we see this as a very close game. While Arizona has more talent, Clemson has already shut down two great offenses. They are playing great basketball, allowing them to control both of their games.
Clemson’s ability to withstand Baylor’s last-second comeback showed us they have the mindset needed to play with a team like Arizona. They won’t let scoring run out of hand, leading to a hard-fought battle.
We aren’t confident enough in Clemson to take the moneyline, but we are very confident they’ll cover this too-large spread.
When: Thursday, March 28 at 7:09 PM EST
Where: crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
TV: CBS
Streaming: Paramount+
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.
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