UConn ended Caitlin Clark’s first NCAAW Tournament (2021) run in the Sweet 16.
UConn star Paige Bueckers was the top-ranked recruit in the 2020 NCAAW class; Caitlin Clark ranked No. 4.
Clark is averaging 32.25 ppg in Tournament play; UConn has not allowed an opposing team player to score 30+ points.
The UConn Huskies will play the Iowa Hawkeyes in the NCAAW Final Four on Friday, Apr. 5, at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. UConn has won the only two matchups against Iowa, 92-72 in the 2021 Sweet 16 and 86-79 in the Phil Knight Classic Final in 2022, but Clark and the Hawkeyes are favored at -2.5 (via FanDuel).
A national championship would be the perfect bookend to Caitlin Clark’s incredible season. But UConn also wants to send its superstar, Paige Bueckers, out on a high note.
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Here is the betting line for UConn vs. Iowa with odds via FanDuel:
Point Spread: UConn +2.5 (-104) | Iowa -2.5 (-118)
Moneyline: UConn +126 | Iowa -154
Total: O/U 162.5 (-110/-110)
Caitlin Clark gets the bulk of the attention, but UConn has a superstar of its own in junior guard Paige Bueckers. She leads the team’s No. 14 ranked offense (79.9 ppg) with 22 ppg this season; Bueckers has averaged 28 ppg in the Tournament.
But she doesn’t have to do it all alone. The Huskies have three other players averaging in double digits, but the issue may not be scoring in this game against Iowa’s No. 314-ranked defense. The issue will be whether they can defend against Caitlin Clark on the perimeter.
The Huskies play solid defense in the paint, and their three-point defense is not terrible. It ranks No. 36 in the country in three-point field goal percentage defense. However, that may not be enough against an Iowa team that throws up close to 30 attempts per game.
Caitlin Clark will get her shots, and everyone knows that. You’d think that would remove the guesswork from defending her, but no one has successfully done so. She has averaged 32 ppg, no matter what defenses throw at her.
But the trick has been whether she’ll get enough support from the rest of the team. Only two other players average 10+ ppg, but the real issue is their bench. The bench has averaged 20.4 ppg this season. In the team’s four losses, the bench chipped in an average of 11 ppg.
After scoring 29 in the tournament opener, the bench has scored 0, 6, and 5 points.
Clark has been on a roll throughout the Tournament, but if she has an off night or gets into foul trouble, that could be the break UConn needs to pull off the upset.
Iowa does not have a great defense. UConn will put some points on the board. The Huskies may slow Caitlin Clark and the Iowa offense down for a few minutes here and there, but never for long. Expect this game to be a high-scoring shootout.
As for who will win, this game could easily go either way. Taking the OVER is the best play by far.
Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio
Game Time & Date: 9 p.m. ET on Friday, April 5
TV Network: ESPN
Streaming: ESPN+ and streaming services like YouTube TV, Sling TV, and Hulu + Live TV.
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