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Tennessee is 10-5 against the spread since the start of February.
Purdue’s three tournament wins have come by an average of over 25 points.
Purdue beat Tennessee 71-67 during the Maui Invitational earlier this season.
The Easter Sunday Elite Eight doubleheader begins with the Midwest Region final between the no. 2 Tennessee Volunteers and the no. 1 Purdue Boilermakers. This is the only region in which the top two seeds survived to this point. The Volunteers are hoping to reach the Final Four for the first time in just their second Elite Eight game. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are close to getting to the Final Four for the first time since 1980 and put last year’s First-Round loss behind them.
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The Volunteers have proven to be a deep and versatile team in this tournament. They won a defensive slugfest over Texas in the Round of 32 and then won an 82-75 shootout against Creighton in the Sweet 16. Tennessee managed to beat Creighton on Friday without veteran guard Santiago Vescovi, showing the true depth of the Vols.
Of course, while Vescovi is an important leader for Tennessee, he hasn’t been a featured member of the backcourt this season. That honor has gone to Dalton Knecht, who is averaging 21.2 points per game and has scored over 20 points in two of the team’s three tournament games. Of course, Zakai Ziegler is the straw that stirs the drink, averaging 11.9 points and six assists per game. Even if Vescovi remains unavailable, Josiah-Jordan James and Jordan Gainey add reliable depth to the Tennessee backcourt.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee frontcourt should play a key role in the Elite Eight. Most of the team’s size comes from 6’11’’ junior Jonas Aidoo, who contributes 11.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game. But he doesn’t always need to score a lot to make an impact on games. However, outside of Aidoo and Tobe Awake, Tennessee’s size is somewhat limited.
The Boilermakers have moved rather comfortably through the tournament to this point. Following last year’s embarrassing loss in the First Round, Purdue has won its last three games by margins of 25, 39, and 12 points, covering the spread in all three games. Even in a tricky matchup with Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, the Boilermakers held a comfortable lead for much of the game.
Obviously, it’s no secret that Zach Edey is the key to Purdue’s success. The 7’4’' center is often unstoppable, averaging 24.6 points and 12.1 rebounds per game during the season. But Edey has been even better during the NCAA Tournament, averaging 26.7 points and 16.3 rebounds per game. That doesn’t even include how his presence impacts opponents on the other end of the floor.
In addition to Edey, Purdue has three guards who average double figures. Braden Smith is the biggest key, averaging 7.5 assists to keep the offense flowing. But Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer are also reliable scorers while veteran forward Mason Gillis adds another outside shooter who can make teams pay for double-teaming Edey.
This game is a rematch of a November game during the Maui Invitational that Purdue won 71-67 as 3.5-point favorites. Edey proved difficult to contain in that game with neither team playing particularly well offensively. While Tennessee has better guard play, they aren’t likely to have an answer for Edey, nor do they have that many players with the size to challenge him. By no means should the Vols be counted out of this game. However, the Boilermakers have been dominant in this tournament and the three-point spread doesn’t do enough to reflect that. Ultimately, look for Purdue to outlast Tennessee and cover the three-point spread.
When: 2:20 PM EST on Sunday, March 31
Where: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
TV: CBS
AUTHOR
Bryan Zarpentine
181 Articles
Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
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