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In one of the more lopsided matchups this week, we have the Arizona Cardinals remaining at home to host the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are 2-0, while the Cardinals are 0-2.
Below, we’ve examined the odds from this game and offered our three best bets after reviewing the best NFL betting sites.
Kansas City Chiefs
Despite their 0-2 record, the Cardinals, a team expected to lose the most games this season, have played their opponents, the Washington Commanders and New York Giants, tough.
The Cardinals lost in Week 1 20-16 thanks to 10 points from the Commanders in the fourth quarter. In Week 2, they led the Giants at halftime 20-0. They were outscored 31-8 in the second half and lost 31-28. They’re 2-0 ATS this season; a big part is the conservative approach to offense.
In Week 2, Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs let loose a bit. He averaged 7.4 yards per attempt and an average depth of target of 10.3. The Giants' secondary isn’t anywhere near the level of the Cowboys, but he did complete 67.7% of his passes for 228 yards one touchdown, and also rushed for 41 yards and a touchdown.
Running back James Conner has played well this season, rushing for 168 yards on 37 carries (4.5 yards per attempt) and scoring a touchdown in Week 2. He had four runs of 10+ yards.
Now, the Cowboys are an interesting team. Their defense has been overwhelmingly powerful this season, generating 61 pressures and 10 sacks through two games. Their pass rush, headlined by Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, should be able to dismantle D.J. Humphries and Paris Johnson Jr. on both sides.
Parson also lines up all over the place, so he could look to target left guard Elijah Wilkinson, who’s allowed six pressures and a sack.
Offensively, the Cowboys haven’t needed to do much, really. Quarterback Dak Prescott was much more involved against the Jets in Week 2, completing 31 38 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns. However, he had an average depth of target of just five yards.
Running back Tony Pollard has been OK this season, but Week 1 and Week 2 showed a lot of variance. He had 70 rushing yards in Week 1 and 72 in Week 2, but he averaged five yards per carry in Week 1 and 2.9 in Week 2.
The Cardinals do allow 109.5 rushing yards per game, which could help.
There’s a mismatch here. The Cowboys are undoubtedly the better team, but what about when it comes to evaluating picks against the spread?
We found bets we think you should make after checking out DraftKings Sportsbook, one of the best sports betting sites.
With the overall conservative Cardinals offense, taking them plus the points seems like the right way to go, especially getting 12.5. It seems like the sharp bet to take.
However, the Cowboys' defense is so ferocious they should be able to force the turnovers that Dobbs hasn’t made yet this season.
Dobbs has four turnover-worthy plays this season, three in Week 1 and one in Week 2. Against pressures, he’s completing 63.2% of his passes, but a pass rush with Parson and Lawrence against this Cardinals offensive line should create plenty of turnover potential.
The Cardinals' defense will struggle to match up with the passing game and Pollard on the ground, too.
Look for the Cowboys' defense to create turnovers and cover this monstrous spread.
The Cowboys' offense should be able to score here, and their defense can create the turnovers Dobbs hasn’t made to this point in the season.
Dobbs has shown he’s not afraid to throw downfield a little bit, but the Cowboys' secondary will likely make him think twice before doing so.
Conner has played well enough this season, and, in garbage time, the Cardnals should manage a couple of touchdowns or points equivalent to that while the Cowboys approach 30 points or more again.
Make no mistake, the plus line value here comes from the garbage time touchdown potential as opposed to Dobbs besting the Cowboys' secondary.
However, looking at the Cowboys pass rush against the Cardinals' offensive line; it’s going to be difficult for Dobbs to let plays develop enough to make meaningful passes.
Take a chance on the plus line value here.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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