Best Sunday Night Football Prop Bets Week 18: Bills vs. Dolphins

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published January 7, 2024
4 min read

The Bills will face the Dolphins on Sunday night to close out the 2023 regular season. Both teams had extremely impressive seasons, but the AFC East is on the line. 

Buffalo enters this game with a 10-6 record, while the Dolphins are 11-5. Both teams have shown they can win big games this season, so look for this to be highly competitive. 

The Bills are on a four-game winning streak heading into Week 18. Their most recent win came against their division rival, the New England Patriots. This game was very close and even featured a failed last-minute drive by the Patriots. New England exposed many weaknesses in Buffalo that Miami will look to neutralize. 

The Dolphins are coming off a blowout loss to the AFC conference-leading Ravens. This loss let every other team in the league know that the Dolphins are extremely vulnerable to the deep ball. However, before this loss to Baltimore, Miami secured a win over the Cowboys, showing they can beat a quality opponent. 

Miami has a lot of heart and doesn’t seem to be phased by adversity. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s house burned down just one week ago. This could be a massive distraction for their MVP candidate going into this matchup, so seeing how he handles this game will be interesting. 

Both teams are looking for a win to close out their spectacular regular season, but only one will come out victorious. Let’s break down our favorite player props for the matchup!

NFL SNF Prop Bets Week 18 Bills vs Dolphins
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Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown (-170) on DraftKings Sportsbook

The Dolphins have one of the most prominent running games in the NFL. A big portion of their success on the ground this season has come from the hands of former San Francisco back Raheem Mostert. 

Mostert had a rough start to his career, with frequent injuries setting him back and delaying his breakout season. In 2023, Mostert came out and proved he was worthy of being a starter in the NFL. 

Mostert has averaged 67.46 yards per game this season while piling up 18 total touchdowns. Those 18 touchdowns rank him first in the NFL. The Bills defense has given up 13 rushing touchdowns this season while also allowing 17 passing touchdowns.

We expect Miami to lean heavily on the running game regardless of the score. Even later in the game, Mostert has shined like nobody else in the league. 

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Josh Allen Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-110) on DraftKings Sportsbook

The Bills have seen early exits from the playoffs since quarterback Josh Allen came to the team in 2018. A coin toss was one of the reasons Allen was left out of the playoffs against the Chiefs a few years ago. However, the Bills have always been dangerous coming into the season. 

Allen has averaged 246 passing yards and has thrown 27 touchdowns. He is 7th in the league in both of these categories.  

Allen’s biggest flaw is his turnover capability, but he will be slinging the ball throughout the game. Even if he turns the ball over, Allen will still have explosive completions down the field. 

Head over to DraftKings Sportsbook to place your bets

Gabe Davis Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-132) on DraftKings Sportsbook

Wide receiver Gabe Davis’ production has dropped dramatically. However, Davis is always in the picture and a downfield threat who can strike at any time. 

Davis is averaging 46 receiving yards per game. We expect Davis to be utilized early and often, given the fact that he is coming off of an injury and feeling healthy. The Miami passing defense is terrible on every level, so Davis should be open down the field. 

Both of these defensive fronts have shown the ability to get after the quarterback in 2023. Look for the Dolphins to double-cover Stefon Diggs and leave plenty of opportunities for Davis to make spectacular plays. 

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Bills vs. Dolphins Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Bills  -152 -2.5 (-115) Over 48.5 (-110)
Dolphins  +128 +2.5 (-105) Under 48.5 (-110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Head over to DraftKings to place your bets!

How to Watch Bills vs. Dolphins

  • Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins 

  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium. Miami Gardens, FL

  • When: Sunday, January 7th, 8:20 p.m. ET

  • TV: NBC 

  • Streaming: NBC Sports App

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Tanner Kern

Sports Betting Analyst & On-Air Host

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Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.
Nationality: American
Education: M.S in Sports Journalism
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