Thursday Night Football Picks Week 11: Eagles Have the Opportunity to Take the Lead in the NFC East

• The Philadelphia Eagles are the current betting favorite to win the NFC East division title

• The Washington Commanders have a half-game lead over the Eagles in the division standings

• Washington’s defense ranks below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After getting derailed by injuries earlier in the season, the Philadelphia Eagles are now just a half-game back from the Washington Commanders in the NFC East division's standings and have the opportunity to leap over them with a win against them on Thursday. Since AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith have returned from injury, the Eagles offense have been one of the more potent pass attacks in the league as they enter the contest ranked above league average in Pass Success Rate and Pass EPA.

Against the Commanders, Jalen Hurts and company will have the opportunity to thrive as Washington’s defense has struggled to defend against the pass this season as their low marks in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate indicate. Factor in Offensive Player of the Year contender Saquon Barkley being a threat on the ground and the Commanders defense will have their hands full trying to defend against the Eagles deep group of skill players.

As for where to wager on Thursday’s NFC East divisional matchup between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, BetMGM Sportsbook has been the front-runner for the NFL as they offer a wide range of markets for their users to choose from. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets* should you lose your first bet after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

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Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

With health back on their side and their defense rounding back into form, the Philadelphia Eagles have started to look like a team who is built to make another run at the Super Bowl. Their lack of defensive production was the cause for their downfall last season, now entering Thursday’s contest against the Commanders ranked in the top half of the board in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their front line has also excelled at bringing down the quarterback as the Eagles rank top-10 in Adjusted Sack Rate.

While their high marks on defense may not be enough to completely halt Offensive Rookie of the Year betting favorite Jayden Daniels and the elite Commanders offense, just slowing them down is more than enough to help secure the victory. Especially when their own offense is in a position to routinely get into scoring position as the Commanders' defense has struggled to play at a competitive level. As of writing, the Commanders' defense ranks well below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards.

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Philadelphia Eagles Team Total Over 26.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook 

With the Commanders' defense ranking below league average in Def Pass and Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate, the Eagles' offense should have no issue with consistently moving the ball down the field into scoring territory. Washington’s advantages in pass rush may seem daunting on paper, but the Eagles can counter their interior pressure by bouncing Saquon Barkley to the outside. That forces the Commanders to anchor their outside linebackers in the flats, opening up the middle for the Eagles pass catchers to exploit.

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Eagles/Texans Moneyline Parlay (+104) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

Should you want to bypass the number and back the Eagles to just win the game straight up instead, then they make for a great team to use in a two team moneyline parlay. Especially if the Eagles tick up to -3.5 or -4 before being able to make a wager, zapping away a lot of the value when compared to the key number of -3. Even with their advantages on offense, the Eagles will still find themselves combating against variance due to the shortened week which hurts their quality of preparation.

As for who to pair with the Eagles in the two-team moneyline parlay, the Houston Texans make for a great addition as they get a favorable matchup against the reeling Dallas Cowboys. With Dak Prescott out with an injury, the Cowboys' offensive production has fallen off a cliff. Their struggles on offense are poised to persist as the Texans' defense currently ranks top-15 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. With star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr expected to make his return, Cooper Rush may find himself under relentless pressure as well.

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More TNF Week 11 Picks and Bets

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