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UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis - Odds, Predictions & Picks

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Published November 10, 2023
8 min read
  • Derrick Lewis replaces injured Curtis Blaydes for this event

  • The Bonfim brothers both appear on the same main card for the first time

  • Middleweight prospects Borralho and Magomedov faceoff on the main card

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis

The DraftKings sportsbook provided the odds for this match. Use our exclusive link and bet $5 to get $200 in Bonus Bets.

Fighter Odds
Jailton Almeida -500
Derrick Lewis +380
Fighter Odds
Gabriel Bonfim -600
Nicolas Dalby +440
Fighter Odds
Rodrigo Nascimento -185
Don’Tale Mayes +154
Fighter Odds
Caio Borralho -290
Abus Magomedov +235
Fighter Odds
Rodolfo Vieira -110
Armen Petrosyan -110
Fighter Odds
Ismael Bonfim -520
Vinc Pichel +390
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UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Lewis - Picks & Predictions

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis - Heavyweight division

  • Our pick: Jailton Almeida (-500)

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby - Welterweight division

  • Our pick: Gabriel Bonfim (-600)

Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes - Heavyweight division

  • Our pick: Rodrigo Nascimento (-185)

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov - Middleweight division

  • Our pick: Caio Borralho (-290)

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan - Middleweight division

  • Our pick: Armen Petrosyan (-110)

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel - Lightweight division

  • Our pick: Ismael Bonfim (-520)

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis - Heavyweight Division

Jailton Almeida TALE OF THE TAPE Derrick Lewis
32 Age 38
6 ft 3 in Height 6 ft 3 in
79 in Reach 79 in
19-2 Record 27-11, 1 no-contest

Let’s clear the elephant in the room: earlier this week, Derrick Lewis faced charges of reckless driving. Although this event will proceed as scheduled, will this affect Lewis’ mentality heading into this main event, for which he is already a replacement fighter?

Lewis is feeling high, having recently snapped a three-fight losing skid with his win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in July, but he is stepping in on short notice to take on a younger fighter who has yet to see a third round in the UFC in Jailton Almeida.

Almeida is undefeated in the UFC (five wins) and is on a 14-fight winning streak that hasn't seen him lose a professional fight since 2018.

Almeida most recently won his most impressive bout to date, earning a first-round submission win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik this past May - earning him his third performance bonus in a row.

These men stand at an equal height and share the same reach, but we can’t bet against Almeida in this one despite how fan-friendly Derrick Lewis can be. 

Almeida is the clear favorite at -500 in this main event, and the likelihood of this fight lasting the distance is incredibly low at -10000.

To find out how to place your bets for this heavyweight main event, check out our ultimate UFC betting guide to get started.

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby - Welterweight Division

Gabriel Bonfim TALE OF THE TAPE Nicolas Dalby
26 Age 38
6 ft 1 in Height 5 ft 11 in
72 in Reach 74.5 in
15-0 Record 22-4-1, 2 no-contest

Enjoying a winning streak of three in a row, Nicolas Dalby hopes to become the first man to defeat Brazilian fighter Gabriel Bonfim in the co-main event this weekend.

Dalby has won three decisions in a row, including his most recent over Muslim Salikhov. Fighting on the same card as his brother (we’ll get there), Gabriel Bonfim translated his first-round win on the Contender Series into back-to-back first round wins in his first two UFC bouts. He has finished Mounir Lazzez and Trevin Giles, both by guillotine submission.

Bonfim is the largest betting favorite on the main card at -600, and there are -110 odds that the fight will be finished within the first round.

Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes - Heavyweight Division

Rodrigo Nascimento TALE OF THE TAPE Don’Tale Mayes
30 Age 31
6 ft 3 in Height 6 ft 6 in
80 in Reach 81 in
10-1, 1 no-contest Record 10-5, 1 no-contest

With similar age, similar reach, and similar records in their last three fights, these heavyweights should put on a show this weekend. 

Nascimento is 2-1 with one no-contest in his last four, but those two wins have come back-to-back against Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi.

Mayes is also 2-1 with one no-contest in his last four and is coming off of a win over former heavyweight champion Andre Arlovski.

Despite standing three-inches shorter than Mayes, Nascimento will enter the fight this Saturday as the -185 favorite.

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov - Middleweight Division

Caio Borralho TALE OF THE TAPE Abus Magomedov
30 Age 33
5 ft 10 in Height 6 ft 2 in
75 in Reach 78 in
14-1, 1 no-contest Record 25-5-1

After an impressive first-round KO win over Dustin Stoltfus in his UFC debut, German fighter Abus Magomedov is looking to rebound from his second-round TKO loss at the hands of now-champion Sean Strickland back in July.

To do so, he’ll have to defeat Caio Borralho, a black belt in both BJJ and Muay Thai who is undefeated in the UFC and on an 11-fight professional winning streak. 

Magomedov has the height and reach advantages over Borralho but is still listed as the underdog at +235.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan - Middleweight Division

Rodolfo Vieira TALE OF THE TAPE Armen Petrosyan
34 Age 32
5 ft 11 in Height 6 ft 3 in
73 in Reach 71 in
9-2 Record 8-2

One of the taller middleweights in the promotion, Armen Perosyan, has gone 3-1 since joining the UFC and has won his last two fights over AJ Dobson and Christian Leroy Duncan.

This Saturday, he takes on Rodolfo Vieira in a pick ‘em matchup in which both fighters are listed as -110.

Vieira is 2-2 in his last four fights and is coming off of a second-round submission win over Cody Brundage.

Petrosyan stands four-inches taller, but that won’t translate into the reach department, in which Vieira will have the two-inch advantage.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel - Lightweight Division

Ismael Bonfim TALE OF THE TAPE Vinc Pichel
27 Age 40
5 ft 8 in Height 5 ft 10 in
71 in Reach 72 in
19-4 Record 14-3

The brother of co-main event fighter Gabriel Bonfim, Ismael Bonfim will kick off the main card and is almost as big of a betting favorite - sitting as a -520 favorite to defeat his opponent Vinc Pichel.

At 40-years-old, Pichel only recently had a three-fight winning streak snapped by the hands of Mark Madsen, who defeated him via decision in April 2022. This will be his first fight of the 2023 calendar year.

Bonfim is also coming off of a loss - a first-round submission loss to Benoit Saint-Denis that snapped his six-fight winning streak.

Pichel is taller and longer, but youth, as well as the fact that he has been more active, is on Bonfim’s side.

How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Lewis

  • Location: Ginásio do Ibirapuera, Sao Paulo, Brazil

  • When: Saturday, November 4

  • Time: 7PM EST

  • How: ESPN, ESPN+, TSN3

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Ryan Bristlon

432 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.

Email: [email protected]

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