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UFC: Prochazka vs. Pereira - Odds, Predictions & Picks

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Published November 11, 2023
8 min read
  • Jon Jones injured; Pavolovich vs Aspinall added for interim heavyweight title

  • Fight for vacant LHW championship moved to the main event slot

  • Jessica Andrade looks to snap her three-fight losing skid against Mackanzie Dern

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Lewis

The odds for this match are provided by the FanDuel Sportsbook. Click our exclusive link to place your bets.

Jiri Prochazka+100
Alex Pereira-128
Sergei Pavlovich-104
Tom Aspinall-122
Mackenzie Dern-215
Jessica Andrade+164
Matt Frevola+186
Benoit Saint-Denis-245
Diego Lopes-104
Pat Sabatini-122
UFC Prochazka vs Pereira Predictions

UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira - Picks & Predictions

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira - Light heavyweight championship

Our pick: Alex Pereira (-128)

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall - Interim Heavyweight championship

Our pick: Sergei Pavlovich (-104)

Mackenzie Dern vs Jessica Andrade - Strawweight division

Our pick: Mackenzie Dern (-215)

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis - Lightweight division

Our pick: Benoit Saint-Denis (-245)

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini - Featherweight division

Our pick: Diego Lopes (-104)

Sign up at FanDuel, bet a minimum $5, and get $200 in bonus bets.

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira - Light heavyweight championship

Jiri ProchazkaTALE OF THE TAPEAlex Pereira
6 ft 4 inHeight6 ft 4 in
80 inReach79 in

In the summer of 2022, Jiri Prochazka defeated Glover Teixeira for the light heavyweight championship. Then he got severely injured in training and vacated the title. Jamahal Hill then defeated Teixeira in a fight for the vacant belt, becoming the new champion. Then Jamahal Hill got injured and vacated the title. Now Prochazka is once again fighting for the LHW title - this time against former middleweight champion Alex Pereira in a main event fight that was originally slated to be the co-main event of UFC 295.

Confused? Read more about the history of the light heavyweight title HERE!

As stated, Prochazka hasn’t fought since the summer of 2022 when he defeated Texiera to become the champion. That win was his 13th in a row and his third in the UFC. Yes, Prochazka became the light heavyweight champion in just his third UFC bout.

Also crazy is that Alex Pereira became the middleweight champion in just his fourth UFC bout but lost the title back to Israel Adesanya in their rematch. He most recently defeated former LHW champ Jan Blachowicz in what was Pereira’s LHW debut at UFC 291 back in July.

These two men stand at equal height, with Prochazka having the slightest one-inch reach advantage. 

However, at -128, Pereira’s activity level puts him as the odds on favorite to win over Prochazka - who has been on the shelf form more than one year at this point. 

To find out how to place your bets for this light heavyweight title main event, check out our ultimate UFC betting guide to get started.

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall - Interim Heavyweight championship

Sergei PavlovichTALE OF THE TAPETom Aspinall
6 ft 3 inHeight6 ft 5 in
84 inReach78 in

When current heavyweight champion Jon Jones injured himself in training and withdrew from the card’s original main event against Stipe Miocic, the UFC wasted no time in securing this interim title replacement fight between number-two-ranked Sergei Pavlovich and number-four ranked Tom Aspinall.

It’s a little strange that Stipe Miocic was removed from the card but let’s face it, Pavlovich and Aspinall are the future of the heavyweight division and it was only a matter of time before one of these men lifted UFC gold.

After losing his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem (the only loss of his career), Pavlovich rebounded by going on a six-fight winning streak - finishing all of his opponents via KO or TKO in the first round and picking up four performance bonuses along the way.

He most recently defeated Curtis Blaydes back in April.

Speaking of Curtis Blaydes, Tom Aspinall lost to Blaydes back in 2022 - albeit due to a knee injury Aspinall suffered in the fight. After a year away to recover, Aspinall made his UFC return back in July where he earned a performance bonus for his first-round TKO win over Marcin Tybura.

Aspinall will stand two inches taller than Pavlovich in this fight but the latter will enjoy a significant six-inch reach advantage. That’s a massive advantage for a man with such notable punching power.

Mackenzie Dern vs Jessica Andrade - Strawweight division

Mackenzie DernTALE OF THE TAPEJessica Andrade
5 ft 4 inHeight5 ft 2 in
63 inReach62 in

Two Brazilians. Two BJJ black belts. Two women hungry for a win! Mackenzie Dern and Jessica Andrade have both struggled as of late and hope for a win over their fellow countrywoman.

Although coming off of a recent win over Angela Hill in May, Mackenzie Dern is just 2-2 in her last four fights - all of which went to decision despite her 3rd-degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu credentials.

She takes on Jessica Andrade - a former strawweight champion who recently has been juggling between the strawweight and flyweight divisions. She has lost her last three fights in a row - having been finished in all of them. She most recently tapped out to Tatiana Suarez in the second round of their bout in August.

Dern, a -215 favorite, will stand two inches taller and have a slight one-inch reach advantage over the former champion.

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis - Lightweight division

Matt FrevolaTALE OF THE TAPEBenoit Saint-Denis
5 ft 9 inHeight5 ft 11 in
71 inReach73 in
11-3-1Record12-1, 1 no-contest

Talk about a quick turnaround, French-born Benoit Saint-Denis fought just one-month ago in his home country of France, earning a second-round TKO win over Thiago Moises in what was deemed the fight of the night.                        

That win was his fourth in a row and now he looks to keep his streak alive with a win over Matt Frevola - a fighter who is on a three-fight winning streak of his own.

Frevola has earned three first-round finishes in a row, most recently having stopped Drew Dober via TKO at UFC 288 back in May.

With height and reach to his advantage, Benoit Saint-Denis stands as the biggest betting favorite on the main card with -245 odds to win.

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini - Featherweight division

Diego LopesTALE OF THE TAPEPat Sabatini
5 ft 11 inHeight5 ft 8 in
72.5 inReach70 in

Diego Lopes became a UFC favorite when he made a last-minute debut against Movsar Evloev at UFC 288. He lost the bout but put on such a great showing that Dana White offered him another fight in the UFC.

At a UFC Fight Night card in August, Lopes earned his first win with the promotion, submitting Gavin Tucker in the first round.

At UFC 295 this Saturday, Lopes will take on Pat Sabatini, who is 7-1 in his last eight fights and who is coming off of a submission win of his own. He most recently tapped out Lucas Almeida in the second round of their fight this past June.

Lopes will stand three inches taller than Sabatini and will enjoy a 2.5-inch reach advantage as well.

How to Watch UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira

  • LOCATION: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York

  • WHEN: Saturday, November 11

  • TIME: 10:00 PM EST

  • HOW: UFC Fight Pass, PPV, ESPN+

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Ryan Bristlon

433 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.

Email: [email protected]

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