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Best YRFI Bets Today: Fade Patrick Corbin Against the Dodgers

Written by: Kody Malstrom
Published April 23, 2024
11 min read
Best YRFI Bets Today 04 23 2024 Dodgers James Paxton

Our favorite fade target returns as Patrick Corbin makes his fifth appearance this season for the Washington Nationals. Corbin has continued to regress and has helped cash out YRFIs throughout this season with his lack of command, now giving us another chance to cash again against the best batting lineup in baseball. For a more in-depth breakdown of the YRFI market and what factors into them being worth a wager, you can read it here.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals - James Paxton vs. Patrick Corbin (6:45 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-141) at FanDuel

As previously mentioned, Patrick Corbin has been a mainstay with our daily YRFI piece as our favorite fade target so far this season. Corbin has seen his production steadily decline over the years, now having to find answers in a pinch against the most dangerous top of the order in baseball with the Los Angeles Dodgers coming into town.

That spells potential doom for Corbin, and potential cash for us YRFI bettors, as Corbin’s lack of command and punch out ability will be tested from the first pitch against the Dodgers. Corbin comes into this matchup with an ERA of 8.06, a WHIP of 1.970, 36 hits allowed, 15 strikeouts, eighth batters walked, and an astonishing 20 earned runs against.

His WHIP of 1.970 indicates that opposing offenses nearly average two runners on base per inning, now having to go against the likes of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith. Mookie and Ohtani are both in the top-5 for most hits season as of writing while Freedman and Smith are elite contact batters in their own right.

Should just one or both batters get on base from the jump, then the Dodgers will be in a great position to continue to punish the regressing Corbin. Especially since Corbin possesses a low walk rate, meaning that he tends to remain on the aggressive side with his lackluster attempts to punch opposing batters out. Expect Corbin to remain aggressive, getting punished early against an elite crop of contact hitters.

As for the Dodgers, they trot out James Paxton who on paper has been great to start his season. Paxton comes into the contest with an ERA of 2.81 but negative regression looms large as he has a WHIP of 1.500. That indicates opposing teams have been unable to capitalize on their runners in scoring position as they nearly average two on base per game.

Place your YRFI bets at FanDuel CTA icon

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves - A.J Puk vs. Max Fried (7:20 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-122) at FanDuel

Our next YRFI targets the NL East matchup between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves. The Marlins 2024 season could not have started off worse, suffering from preseason injuries that have seriously hampered their level of production while the Atlanta Braves are largely thought of as the second best team behind the Dodgers.

A big reason for the Marlins' struggles stems from their lack of pitching production, now trotting out A.J Puk who has severely underwhelmed four games into this season. Coming into this game, Puk has an ERA of 9.22, a WHIP of 2.634, 19 hits allowed, an incredible 17 batters walked, and 14 earned runs against. His lack of command will simply not work against the Braves' elite batting order, especially with Acuna kicking things off as one of the best batters at extending pitches with walks in order to get on base.

As for the Braves, Max Fried gets the call to the mound in an attempt to get bacon track after a rough start to this season. Fried is expected to help cushion the loss of their ace Spencer Strider after going out with an injury, yet has struggled to round back into form as he has an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.959. The Marlins may seem weak, but Luis Arraez is a dangerous contact batter who may find himself in scoring position early against Fried’s lack of command.

Head to FanDuel and place your YRFI bets CTA icon


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Kody Malstrom

101 Articles

Kody Malstrom is a sports betting journalist with six years of writing experience in the industry. He covers an abundance of sports, including College Football, NFL, College Basketball, NBA, and more. Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a devoted Detroit Sports fan and spends his Sundays rooting for the Detroit Lions while telling himself this year is the year they win it all. When not staring at betting markets, Kody spends his free time at the beach in the summer or snowboarding in the winter.

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