Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 5)
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Packers 27, Cowboys 24. My prediction for the final score is Packers 27, Cowboys 24.
How to Watch: Packers vs Cowboys
What: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
When: Sunday, October 6 at 4:25 ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
How (TV): FOX
Latest point spread
Packers +3.5, Cowboys -3.5
This particular Week 5 Sunday NFC showdown features two angry teams coming off disappointing losses, with the 3-1 Green Bay Packers traveling due south to take on the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium located (due west of Dallas) in Arlington, Texas.
This matchup looks to be an exciting one, with Green Bay’s defense holding court so far this season while Aaron Rodgers’ offense slowly gets to gelling as Dallas’ defense stays busy snapping bones and tackles and Dak Prescott’s offense balances an air and ground attack that has left opponents winless three out of four times this season.
Both of these playoff-bound NFC powerhouses could use a Week 5 win after their surprising Week 4 losses, so let’s take a quick look at how these two teams are set up for their upcoming Week 5 matchups.
The 3-1-0 Green Bay Packers
The big worry for the Green Bay Packers in Week 5 is the toe injury to star receiver Devante Adams, who is listed as questionable (see below), mostly because he is their most productive player and it becomes a huge deal if he goes from questionable to out on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers is doing okay but being ranked 14th among his NFL peers and throwing for just 6 touchdowns in four weeks is typically not his style, especially given how healthy he is right now.
The Packers could use a big game from quarterback Aaron Rodgers because right now his 3.3 yards per carry is not making their normally effective run game seem all that dominant.
The 3-1-0 Dallas Cowboys
Up until Week 4, the Dallas Cowboys seemed unstoppable, but maybe that is because their opponents weren’t all that good, and beating the Washington Redskins, the Miami Dolphins and the pre-Daniel “Dimes” Jones New York Giants isn’t exactly bragging materiel in the NFC.
The good news in Dallas is that (except for last week), running back Ezekiel Elliott seems healthy and fully up to speed, as does receiver Amari Cooper, who can change a game around with his ability to get open and run after the catch.
Barring unforeseen serious injuries or a Dak Prescott pre-deal implosion, the 2019 Cowboys look like a team that is on its way to the playoffs and they will be ready to prove that at home against the (almost) equally matched Packers.
For more on the Cowboys, check out the Dallas Cowboys 2019-2020 postseason odds.
What’s at Stake?
These two teams have met 36 total times (including 8 postseason games), with Dallas winning 17 of those games and Green Bay winning 19 times.
The Packers won in their two most recent meetups with the Cowboys, first in the 2016 seasonal playoffs in January of 2017 when they scored 34 to the Cowboys’ 31 points, and then in October of the 2017 season when they were on top by a score of 35-31.
If the Packers win this matchup, they’ll move to 4-1-0 and stay atop the NFC North, where the Chicago Bears are going into Week 5 at 3-1 and the other two teams (the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings) have won two games apiece.
But if the Cowboys come out victorious in this one, they’ll move to 4-1-0 and stay at least a game ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants in the NFC East, both still alive with 2 wins going into Week 5.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 5 Packers-Cowboys matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Packers and the Cowboys next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
Green Bay Packers Overall Offense
- Ranked 12th overall in 2018
- Ranked 20th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The Green Bay Packers have the 14th ranked passing attack in the NFL right now, averaging 251.5 yards per game through the air after four weeks.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is healthy and currently, the 14th best passer in the league, completing 91-of-146 for 1,069 yards and 6 touchdowns with just 1 interception.
The Packers leading receiver after four weeks is Devante Adams, who is currently 4th in the league with 25 catches for 378 yards but no touchdowns, listed as questionable for this Week 5 matchup (see below).
Rushing attack: The Packers’ rushing attack is ranked 26th after averaging just 86.2 yards on the ground per matchup.
Running back Aaron Jones is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry, ranked 25th among backs, so far with 59 total carries for 195 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Green Bay has scored 85 total points this season, or 21.2 per game, which is the 17th best total in the league.
Green Bay Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 5: Jamaal Williams (concussion), wide receivers Davante Adams (toe) and Jake Kumerow (shoulder) and offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga (shoulder).
Injury notes: wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown (ankle), tight end Jace Sternberger (ankle), tackle Jason Spriggs (back) and guard Lane Taylor (biceps) have been placed on injured reserve.
Dallas Cowboys Overall Offense
- Ranked 22nd overall in 2018
- Ranked 3rd overall in 2019
Passing attack: Dallas has the 5th ranked passing attack in the league right now after averaging 279.8 yards through the air every game.
Quarterback Dak Prescott has been impressive this season (man wants to get paid!), and in four games he has completed 92-of-127 passes for 1,143 yards and 9 touchdowns with 3 interceptions and a completion percentage of 72.4.
The Cowboys’ best receiver is Amari Cooper, who has caught 21 passes for 286 yards and 4 touchdowns in four games, ranked 25th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: Dallas has the 5th ranked rushing attack, averaging 145.5 rushing yards per game.
Ezekiel Elliott is the Cowboys’ best runner and he is currently the 7th best in the NFL with 73 carries for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, also with 11 catches for 63 yards on the season.
Dallas has scored 107 points in 2019, averaging 26.8 per game, which is the 7th best total in the NFL.
Dallas Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 5: wide receiver Michael Gallup (knee – meniscus),
Injury notes: wide receiver Noah Brown (knee) is listed as PUP-R, offensive tackle Tyron Smith (ankle) is listed as OUT, while wide receivers Jon’Vea Johnson (shoulder) and Lance Lenoir (knee) and guards Connor McGovern (pectoral) and Cody Wichmann (calf) have been placed on injured reserve.
The Dallas Cowboys’ offense is on fire with Dak Prescott proving (with Cooper’s and tight end Jason Witten’s help) to the world he is worth big money, so they have the advantage over the Packers on that side of the ball in Week 5.
Defensive Stats Comparison
Green Bay Packers Overall Defense
- Ranked 18th overall in 2018
- Ranked T-10th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Packers have the 3rd best pass defense this year so far, allowing opponents to throw for 188.0 yards through the air per game.
Green Bay’s defense has 4 team picks and they have 10 sacks total.
Run coverage: Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine’s Packers are the 26th best team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 142.2 yards per game.
Green Bay has allowed their opponents to score 69 total points, or 17.2 per game, which is 8th least in the NFL.
Packers Defensive Players to Watch
The Green Bay Packers are fortunate enough to have the current second-best tackler in the NFL playing for them, which is inside linebacker Blake Martinez, who has a whopping 47 tackles on the season already.
Watch for the two defensive Smiths that the Packers picked up this offseason, (linebackers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith) who already have a combined 7.5 sacks and 26 tackles between them.
In Green Bay’s secondary is strong safety Adrian Amos, who has an interception, 2 passes defended and 23 total tackles this season.
Packers Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 5: defensive end Montravius Adams (shoulder), linebacker Oren Burks (chest), cornerbacks Tony Brown (hamstring), Kevin King (groin) and Will Redmond (undisclosed).
Injury notes: linebacker Greg Roberts (abdomen) and safety Ibraheim Campbell (knee-ACL) are both listed as PUP-R, while linebacker Curtis Bolton (knee-ACL) and safety Raven Greene (ankle) have been placed on injured reserve.
Dallas Cowboys Overall Defense
- Ranked 7th overall in 2018
- Ranked 7th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Cowboys’ defense is 10th against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 221.8 yards per game.
Dallas’ defense has 1 interception on opposing quarterbacks and they have 10 total sacks after four weeks.
Run coverage: The Cowboys are 12th best against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 96.8 yards per game.
Dallas has allowed their opponents to score 56 total points this season, or 14 per matchup, which is 4th fewest in the NFL.
Read our coverage of “Most Interceptions Thrown in 2019 – Top 10“.
Cowboys Defensive Players to Watch
Keep your eyes on Dallas middle linebacker Jaylon Smith, the guy already has 36 total tackles (T-11th most), a sack and a forced fumble.
Cowboys’ defensive end Robert Quinn is definitely worth watching, already with 3.0 sacks and six tackles on the season.
Check out Dallas cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, who has an interception and 5 passes defended on the year, plus a recovered fumble and 19 total tackles.
Cowboys Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 5: defensive tackles Tyrone Crawford (hip) and Antwaun Woods (knee), linebacker Luke Gifford (ankle),
Injury notes: defensive end Randy Gregory (suspension) is listed as OUT, while defensive end Jalen Jelks (undisclosed), defensive tackle Daniel Ross (shoulder), cornerback Chris Westry (undisclosed) and safety Kavon Frazier (pectoral) have been placed on injured reserve.
Coordinator Rod Marinelli’s Cowboys are just plain better on defense than Mike Pettine’s Packers and they will have an advantage over Green Bay in Week 5 despite the ear-shattering noise of Lambeau field.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
Green Bay’s punter, J.K. Scott, is in his second NFL season, and in 2019 he has punted 23 times for a net average of 43.5 yards per punt, 13th best in the league.
Dallas’ veteran punter, Chris Jones, is in his ninth NFL season, all with the Cowboys, and this year he has punted 13 times for a net average of 40.0 yards per punt, which was the 28th best in the league.
Green Bay’s veteran placekicker Mason Crosby, in his thirteenth season (all with the Packers), is a Super Bowl Champion and led the league in scoring in 2007.
Crosby has gone 5-for-6 this season, his longest a 42-yarder, and he has missed zero extra point attempts (10/10).
Dallas’ placekicker, Brett Maher, is in his second NFL season, both with the Cowboys.
Maher has made 3-of-4 field goals in 2019, his longest a 28 yarder, and so far, he has missed no extra point attempts (14/14).
Green Bay’s punt returner, rookie wide receiver Darrius Shephard, was just named the Packers’ punt returner after receiver Trevor Davis was traded to the Oakland Raiders.
So far this year, Shephard has returned 1 punt for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns, averaging no yards per return.
Dallas’ punt returner, wide receiver Tavon Austin, is in his seventh NFL season, his second with the Cowboys.
Austin has returned 1 punt for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns this year, averaging no yards per return.
Special Teams Advantage
The Green Bay Packers’ veteran placekicker and their more consistent punter give them the slight special teams advantage over Dallas in Week 5.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Packers Win this Game?
The Green Bay Packers will win this game because they finally have a defense that can get their offense back on the field, special thanks to linebackers Preston and Za’Darius Smith (no relation).
Aaron Rodgers is on his way to the Hall of Fame already, but he is sticking around for (at least) one more ring and a win against the thriving Cowboys would do a lot for his team’s early-season confidence.
Green Bay will win this one because the Cowboys looked impotent against the Brees-less Saints last week and now the Packers’ young head coach Matt LaFleur will do everything he can (including film study and game planning) to take advantage of that exposed weakness and turn it into an away win on Sunday.
Why Will the Cowboys Win this Game?
The Dallas Cowboys will no doubt win this hometown Week 5 matchup against the inferior Green Bay Packers because they were humiliated in New Orleans last week and they desperately need to redeem themselves on Sunday.
Dak Prescott under center looks amazing so far, and Ezekiel Elliott looks like he hasn’t skipped a beat despite sitting out the preseason waiting to get paid.
The Cowboys defense, ala end Demarcus Lawrence, will chase down Rodgers and stuff most of running back Aaron Jones’ holes (linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee will see to that) and Dallas will go back to their winning ways on their way to postseason glory.
This Game Goes To
The Green Bay Packers by three because their run-stopping defense will finally step up and somehow find a way to quiet Ezekiel Elliot the way the New Orleans Saints did in Week 4.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Packers 27, Cowboys 24.
My prediction for the final score is Packers 27, Cowboys 24.
Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys – Odds