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Steelers -6 (-110)
Diontae Johnson Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Patriots Alternate Team Total Under 14.5 (-200)
Ezekiel Elliot Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Week 14 begins with potentially the worst primetime game of the season when the New England Patriots travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. New England is arguably the worst team in the NFL, and there is no light at the end of their tunnel.
Pittsburgh has been much better than expected recently. The Steelers earned some big wins lately to get their record to 7-4. With the season-ending soon, Pittsburgh still has an opportunity to win their respective division.
New England experienced one of the toughest quarterback rooms out of any team in the league. In the middle of a failed season, the Patriots have gone back and forth on starting quarterbacks Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. In the last few weeks, it has been Zappe, and he has been horrendous.
While this game looks awful on paper, there is still value in the betting market. Let’s break down our favorite props for the action!
Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great team, but the Patriots don’t seem to have an answer for any franchise right now. While the Steelers have a decent record, they still struggle in many aspects of the game. Kenny Pickett has not become the quarterback that Pittsburgh had hoped at this point in his career.
While on paper, New England has the third-best rush defense in the NFL, week after week, they continue to look downright terrible. On average, New England gives up just under 90 rushing yards a game.
The Patriots secondary isn’t nearly as good as their front seven. They give up roughly 220 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, ranking them 18th in the NFL.
We understand that Pickett is very underdeveloped at this point, but the expectation is that he will shine on Thursday and lead his team to their eighth win of the season.
Many aspects of the Steelers' offense need to improve before considering them contenders. However, the re-emergence of Diontae Johnson has provided a much-needed spark for this offense.
Pickett averages just over 170 passing yards per game, which is not very good. Since Johnson returned from the injury he sustained in week one, he has been Pickett's top receiver.
We do no doubt that Pickett will give Johnson every opportunity to hit his over 42.5-yard line on Thursday.
The Patriots' pass defense is 18th in the league, and we expect them to have trouble defending Johnson. In Johnson’s last seven games, he has been targeted 54 times. We fully expect him to have a big game with the matchup against New England.
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In Week 13, the Patriots were shut out by the Chargers. While Los Angeles also played horribly, New England was rarely in field goal range. The change from Mac Jones to Bailey Zappe didn’t ignite this offense.
The team total for New England is 10.5, and they have only scored 13 points in their last two games combined. The Steelers' defense is not one to brag about, but the Patriots offense can't make any progress.
Last week, Zappe played all four quarters and only had 141 passing yards. We believe the Patriots will continue to be one of the worst-scoring offenses in the NFL. We’re adjusting the line to stay safe but will lean heavily on New England not scoring.
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Ezekiel Elliott has been below average since his last few seasons in Dallas. However, he has gained the starting job because of the high ankle sprain Rhamondre Stevenson suffered last week. Even with his new role, Elliott should continue to be ineffective because of his lackluster offensive line.
Pittsburgh has the 21st-ranked run defense, but they’re still a stout front seven. They’re allowing 121 yards per game.
While this isn’t the stat you would like to hear for this prop, we still believe Elliott will go under his total to close out the parlay!
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Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.More info on Tanner Kern
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