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In Week 10 of the NFL season, we have a game between two red-hot teams, the Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans. The Bengals are coming off a massive home win over the Bills, while the Texans also won at home over the Buccaneers and C.J. Stroud had 470 passing yards and five touchdowns.
Below, we’ll touch on this game's three best prop bets.
Spoiler: We’re targeting the quarterbacks here.
To this point, Stroud has just one interception on the year. However, according to Pro Football Focus, he does have eight turnover-worthy plays, indicating he might be a bit more lucky than we know. Against the Buccaneers, he had two turnover-worthy plays.
Facing the Bengals, Stroud is up against a defense that, on average, makes 1.38 interceptions per game. This stat isn't inflated by a single standout performance. The Bengals have managed at least one interception in every game except for Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Bengals are near touchdown favorites, indicating that the Texans will be throwing from behind. That’s not new territory for the Texans and Stroud, but they also haven’t faced a defense this turnover-happy.
Getting +130 line value, look for Stroud to throw one pick in Week 10.
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Sticking with Stroud, we’re taking the under on passing touchdowns. Coming off such a massive day, this almost seems wrong, but here we are—any given Sunday.
On top of the nearly one interception per game from the Bengals, they only allow an average passing line of 21 completions on 333 attempts for 252 yards and 1.12 passing touchdowns.
Stroud broke out in a big way in Week 10, but before that game, he averaged just over one passing touchdown per game.
The Bengals have allowed more than one touchdown pass in just two games this season.
Here, we could see a line similar to the one against New Orleans of about 200ish passing yards, an interception, and only one instead of two passing touchdowns.
This will be a come-back-to-earth game for Stroud, but it doesn’t take away from his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign—the Bengals are surging right now on both sides of the ball.
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So far this season, calf injury and all, Burrow has just four interceptions. They’ve come in clusters (Week 2 and 3; Week 5 and 6).
However, he’s been blank in that column since Week 6, staying out of trouble against the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills. In those games, he had just one turnover-worthy play. Also, he has just five all season, one more than he’s committed.
Against the Texans, Burrow will face a defense that has just four interceptions all year. They haven’t had one over the past two weeks. They allow 250 passing yards per game, just under one touchdown, and 0.50 interceptions per game.
Burrow is on a hot streak right now, and with his weapons and rushing attack, look for him to stay clean for the third week in a row.
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All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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