There are three key ingredients for a great Thanksgiving: food, family, and NFL Football. The holiday has a loaded slate of divisional matchups, highlighted by an NFC East battle between the Commanders and Cowboys.
If you are looking to get in on some Thanksgiving NFL betting action, we have you covered. Below, we will be sharing our favorite same-game parlay for the matchup. We will share why we like each leg and give you the odds and insights you need to bet confidently this holiday.
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Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (-168)
Dak Prescott over 278.5 passing yards (-115)
CeeDee Lamb over 89.5 receiving yards (-124)
Logan Thomas over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Cowboys have been playing as well as anyone over the last two weeks. They have dominated their previous two opponents, outsourcing them 88-27. One of those wins came against a Giants team that blew out the Giants last week.
There are two significant reasons for the recent dominance of the Cowboys. The first is quarterback Dak Prescott, who had been playing like an MVP over the last four weeks. He has 1,271 passing yards and 13 touchdowns during that span, throwing just two interceptions. He and CeeDee Lamb have formed a nearly unstoppable duo, and they should have no problem slicing their way through a bad Washington pass defense en route to a blowout win.
The second reason for the Cowboys’ success is their secondary. Many thought they would fall apart after cornerback Trevon Diggs was lost for the season, but that has not been the case. They allow the second-fewest yards per game (266.3) and passing yards (157.1). Linebacker Micah Parson has been fantastic, with ten sacks and 12 TFLs, but cornerback DaRon Bland has been the star. He has 12 passes defended and six interceptions, four of which he returned for a touchdown. That will create a nightmare for Sam Howell, leading to another blowout win for Dallas.
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As mentioned above, Dak has played like an MVP over the last month after starting slow. The veteran had six touchdowns through his first six games but has had 13 in the four games since. He also came close to matching his yardage total from the first six weeks, which shows just how much he has improved.
We expect Dak to thrive against an awful Commanders’ pass defense. He has the talent to run them over, and now he has more time in the pocket, thanks to his offensive line. They have not allowed Dak to be sacked in two straight games. While Washington’s defensive line has been good about generating pressure, they no longer have Montez Sweat, whose 6.5 sacks still leads the team despite being traded after eight games. We think the Commanders register a couple of sacks, but it won’t be enough to stop this red-hot quarterback.
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Lamb has been one of the best receivers in football over the last six weeks. He has gone for 115+ yards in his five games during that span, including a dud last week against the Panthers, where Dallas mostly moved the ball on the ground. We have always known Lamb was a great receiver, but issues at quarterback have capped his potential. With Dak playing at a high level, we are finally seeing just how high Lamb’s ceiling is.
We see Lamb having a lot of success once again on Thursday. He will be up against a Washington pass defense, allowing the thirtieth most passing yards per game (258.5) and the most passing touchdowns. Everybody has found success when passing against Washington, and the Cowboys’ red-hot pass attack should do the same on Thursday.
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If you will bet on one Commander to succeed on Thursday, make it Logan Thomas. The tight end has been a favorite target and safety net for Sam Howell, going for over 36 yards in seven games this season, including four of his last five. While he doesn’t post colossal yard totals, he sees many passes. Thomas has been targeted at least five times in five straight games, and we think he will do so again tonight.
Thanks to the Dallas pass defense, we like Thomas to find some success. Their cornerbacks should have no issue covering Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin, while Parsons will consistently find his way into the Commanders’ backfield. That will lead to Howell looking for his safety net, leading to Thomas easily surpassing 36 receiving yards.
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