Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 7)
This game goes to the Texans. My prediction for the final score is Texans 28, Colts 27.
How to Watch: Texans vs Colts
What: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
When: Sunday, October 20 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
How (TV): CBS
Latest point spread: Texans +1, Colts -1
According to the latest odds, this Week 7 AFC South showdown could go either way (give or take a point), with the 4-2 Houston Texans and the 3-2 Indianapolis Colts faring almost even in their matchup on Sunday.
The Texans have quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is looking like he did back in his rookie season where he threw for all those touchdowns (before he got injured), and the Colts have Jacoby Brissett under center after their franchise man, Andrew Luck, shockingly retired just before the season started.
These teams have equally matched defenses, but one of their offenses is far superior to the other, so let’s take a quick look at how both have set themselves up for Week 7.
The 4-2-0 Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are figuring out how to win again this year, their latest victory over the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 31-24 in Week 6, and quarterback Deshaun Watson is showing signs that he’s completely healed and ready to go back on the tear he stared pre-injuries his rookie season.
Carlos Hyde is providing the Texans with the run threat they’ve been looking for (once Lamar Miller got injured in Houston’s third preseason game, that is), and then when you add dual-threat back Duke Johnson (both former Cleveland Browns’ runners) the ground threat becomes real.
Houston is great at a lot of things (scoring, rushing, passing) and they’re especially terrific at converting on third downs (ranked 1st in the league after six weeks) if only their 18th ranked defense could step up to the same level this team could start looking towards the postseason.
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The 3-2-0 Indianapolis Colts
These sturdy Indianapolis Colts are well-rested and healed-up after their bye in Week 6, feeling confident after their Week 5, a win against the Kansas City Chiefs, the score 19-13, the victory taking place in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Colts are struggling to defend the rush right now (currently ranked 19th against the run), and sadly they’re not that great against the passing game either, with just the 17th best passing defense in the NFL.
But Indianapolis has an incredibly solid run game with Marlon Mack shooting out of the backfield, and with the Texans (sorta) weak against the run, this should be a fun Sunday for Mack and his offensive front line (talking to you, Quenton Nelson).
What’s at Stake for Texans vs Colts?
These two teams have met 35 total times (including 1 postseason game), with Indianapolis winning 27 of those times and Houston winning the other 8 games.
Last season, the Texans and Colts met in the Wildcard playoff where the Colts won by a score of 21-7 only to beaten in the divisional round by the Kansas City Chiefs, 31-13.
If the Texans win this matchup, they’ll move to 5-2-0 and stay right on top of the AFC South having just pushed above their biggest competition, the Colts, by yet another win.
But if the Colts come out winners in this one, they’ll be 4-2-0 and they will be the ones to rise to the top of their division, with the Texans now below them with an additional win, and the AFC South begins to get very interesting.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 7 Texans-Colts matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Texans and the Colts next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
Houston Texans Overall Offense
- Ranked 15th overall in 2018
- Ranked 6th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The Houston Texans have the 6th ranked passing offense in the league right now, averaging 396.8 yards per game through the air after six weeks.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson is currently ranked the 11th most productive passer in the league having completed 140-of-201 passes for 1,644 yards and 12 touchdowns with 3 interceptions and a completion percentage of 69.7.
The Texans’ leading receiver after six weeks is Will Fuller, who is currently 14th in the league with 33 catches for 444 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Rushing attack: The Texans’ rushing attack is ranked 5th in the NFL after averaging 139.8 yards on the ground per game.
Carlos Hyde is the Texans’ best runner and he is currently the 10th best in the NFL with 99 carries for 426 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
Houston has scored 162 total points this season, or 27 per game, which is the 7th best total in the NFL.
Houston Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 7: wide receivers Will Fuller (calf) and DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) and offensive guard Greg Mancz (concussion).
INJURY NOTE: offensive tackle Tytus Howard (knee – MCL) is listed as OUT and offensive tackle Seantrel Henderson (undisclosed) is listed as NFI, while tight ends Kahale Warring (concussion) and Jordan Thomas (cracked rib), offensive guard Senio Kelemete (wrist), running back Lamar Miller (knee – ACL), offensive tackle David Steinmetz (ankle), quarterback Joe Webb (foot) and wide receiver Isaac Whitney (wrist) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Indianapolis Colts Overall Offense
- Ranked 7th overall in 2018
- Ranked 23rd overall in 2019
Passing attack: Indianapolis has the 23rd best passing attack in the league right now after averaging 344.0 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford is now the 26th best passer after completing 108-of-167 passes for 1,062 yards and 10 touchdowns with 3 interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.7.
The Colts’ best receiver is currently T.Y. Hilton, who has caught 24 passes for 232 yards with 4 touchdowns in six weeks, ranked 68th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: Indianapolis has the 4th ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 142.0 yards on the ground per game.
Marlon Mack is the Colts’ best runner and now he is the 7th most productive in the NFL with 101 carries for 470 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Indianapolis has scored 113 points in 2019, averaging 22.6 per game, which is the 22nd highest scoring average in the NFL right now.
Indianapolis Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 7: there are currently no Colts’ offensive players listed as questionable for Week 7.
Injury notes: wide receiver Parris Campbell (abdomen) is listed as doubtful, while wide receivers Daurice Fountain (ankle), Devin Funchess (collarbone) and Steve Ishmael (knee), tight end Billy Brown (undisclosed) and guard Javon Patterson (knee – ACL) have been placed on injured reserve.
These two teams are about equally matched on the ground, but the Texans are way better through the air, so they get the offensive advantage against the Colts on Sunday (given their receivers can play).
Defensive Stats Comparison
Houston Texans Overall Defense
- Ranked 12th overall in 2018
- Ranked 18th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Texans have the 24th best pass defense in 2019 so far, allowing opponents to throw for 268.08 yards through the air per game.
Houston’s defense has 3 team picks and they have 16 sacks total.
Run coverage: The Texans are the 8th best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 88.0 yards per game.
Houston has allowed their opponents to score 134 total points, or 22.3 per game, which is 19th lowest in the NFL.
Texans Defensive Players to Watch
Make sure to check out Houston inside linebacker Zach Cunningham, who already has 46 total tackles (4 for loss), a sack, a quarterback hit, and a recovered fumble.
Of course, it’s always a pleasure to watch Texans’ defensive end J.J. Watt rush his team’s opponents – he has 4 sacks right now, plus a pass defended, a forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and 18 tackles (3 for loss) with 14 quarterback hits.
Talk about a beast, Houston’s outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus will be getting after Brissett on Sunday, trying to add another sack onto the 5 he already has, plus his interception and 2 passes defended, plus 7 quarterback hits, 4 forced fumbles and 19 total tackles (5 for a loss).
Texans Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 7: l
Injury Notes: defensive end Ira Savage-Lewis (undisclosed) was waived/injured by the Texans, while linebacker Duke Ejiofor (Achilles), linebacker Chris Landrum (undisclosed), defensive tackle Ira Lewis (undisclosed) have been placed on injured reserve.
Indianapolis Colts Overall Defense
- Ranked 11th overall in 2018
- Ranked 16th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Colts’ defense is 17th best against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 242.0 yards per matchup.
Indianapolis’s defense has 2 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 13 total sacks after six weeks.
Run coverage: The Colts are 19th best against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 113.2 yards per game.
Indianapolis has allowed their opponents to score 115 total points this season, or 23 per matchup, which is 9th fewest in the NFL.
Colts Defensive Players to Watch
The best tackler on the Colts right now is middle (MIKE) linebacker Anthony Walker, who has 36 total tackles (4 for loss) and a sack.
Indianapolis has a defensive tackle named Denico Autry who’s playing well right now with 2.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, a pass defended, a forced fumble and 13 total tackles (2 for loss).
The guy to watch in the Colts secondary is strong safety Clayton Geathers, who has an interception, 2 passes defended and 20 tackles.
Colts Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 7: defensive tackle Tyquan Lewis (ankle), linebacker Zaire Franklin (hamstring) and safeties Pierre Desir (abdomen) and Kenny Moore (knee),
Injury notes: safety Malik Hooker (knee – Meniscus) is listed as doubtful, while defensive ends Jegs Jegede (undisclosed) and Kemoko Turay (ankle) and safeties Isaiah Johnson (undisclosed) and Kai Nacua (undisclosed) have been placed on injured reserve.
The Indianapolis Colts are stronger against the run, so they will have a defensive advantage over the Texans in Week 7.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
Houston’s veteran punter, Bryan Anger, is in his eighth NFL season, brought in after the Texans cut Trevor Daniel, and so far this season he has punted 10 times for a net average of 47.3 yards per punt, best in the league right now.
Indianapolis’s punter, Rigoberto Sanchez, is in his third NFL season, all with the Colts, and in 2019 he has punted 16 times for a net average of 41.1 yards per punt, 26th best in the league.
Houston’s Hawaiian born placekicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, just had a second-round restricted free agent tender placed on him in March.
Fairbairn is 6-for-9 this season, his longest a 50-yarder, and he missed 4 extra point attempts (16/20).
Indianapolis’s placekicker Adam Vinatieri, in his 24th NFL season (his 14th with the Colts).
Vinatieri has gone 8-for-11 this season, his longest a 49-yarder, and he has missed 3 extra point attempts (9/12).
Houston’s punt returner, wide receiver DeAndre Carter, is ranked 14th in punt return average this season.
Carter has returned 9 punts for 89 yards and no touchdowns, averaging 9.9 yards per return, his longest for 23 yards.
Indianapolis’s punt returner, wide receiver Chester Rogers, is ranked 11th in punt return average in 2019.
So far this year, Rogers has returned 8 punts for 82 yards and 0 touchdowns, averaging 10.3 yards per return, his longest for 19 yards.
Special Teams Advantage
Both of these veteran placekickers seem a bit shaky right now, and since Houston has a better punter and Indianapolis has a better punt returner, neither team has a special teams advantage this week.
Texans vs Colts Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Texans Win this Game?
If you’ve seen quarterback Deshaun Watson play lately, then there is no doubt in your mind that he and his Texans will take care of this Colts team that has a fair to midland defense but an offense that’s been struggling to put points on the board.
Houston needs its receiver corps to be healthy and show up to win, so a victory against the Colts in their house will depend a lot on whether the Texans’ star playmakers can even suit up (see above).
This game may come down to special teams in the end (that’s what happens when defenses are about equal), so Houston has the advantage there and should be able to pull the W out in the end.
Why Will the Colts Win this Game?
Given their weaker defense, the only way for the Indianapolis Colts to win this one is if a) Jacoby Brissett can have a big game (talking to you, too, T.Y. Hilton) and get some scoring done through the air at home.
It also wouldn’t hurt the Colts’ chances of winning if Marlon Mack could step up and have another big game, especially now that he is well-rested after the bye week, so that means the front line (Quenton Nelson and Anthony Castonzo in particular) have to have huge games, as well.
Indianapolis gets that their position in the AFC South depends on a victory here (gotta push the Texans down a loss) so expect their moderate defense to play above their typical selves.
The Texans vs Colts Game Goes To
Houston Texans, because the healthy Deshaun Watson is becoming the unstoppable player that everyone thought he might be after his rookie season.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Colts 26, Texans 23.
My prediction for the final score is Texans 28, Colts 27.
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts – Game Odds