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Bills vs. Dolphins Picks, Predictions & Odds

Written by: Richard Janvrin
Published October 1, 2023
10 min read

The Miami Dolphins are coming off one of the best performances you’ll ever see in an NFL game, scoring 70 points on the Denver Broncos and holding them to 20. This week, they’re out on the road against the Buffalo Bills, who put up 37 on the Washington Commanders on the road and held them to three. This is certainly a high-stakes matchup that could determine the AFC East winner. 

Below, we’ll offer up our three best bets after reviewing the best NFL betting sites

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds


Miami Dolphins

+2.5 (-102)


O 54

Buffalo Bills

-2.5 (-118)


U 54

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Bet $5 Get $200 Instantly + Up to $150 in No Sweat Bets.

Bills vs Dolphins Predictions

Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Preview

It’s hard to dive into this game without hammering on that 70-point explosion from the Dolphins in Week 1, but we also have to give credit to the Bills. After Week 1’s meltdown, they’ve been putting up points, too, including 38 in Week 2 and 37 on the road in Week 3. 

So far, the Bills have played the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, and Washington Commanders. The Dolphins have played the Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, and the Broncos. 

Both teams have played harder defenses: the Jets for the Bills and the Patriots for the Dolphins. Now, we get to see how these offenses match up against one another. 

At first glance, with the Dolphins getting points, it feels questionable, but when you dive in, it makes some sense. 

First, the Bills are at home, which is always a hostile environment. Their defense has played well, especially up front, and their secondary, led by Micah Hyde, has also shown out this season. The defense has allowed just 29 points this season (not counting the punt return against the Jets), which is remarkable. 

The Dolphins are 3-0 ATS will have wide receiver Jaylen Waddle back in this one, which will help against Tre White and Christian Benford, but their rushing attack might be slowed down a bit. The Bills allowed just 55 yards rushing at home in Week 2 against the Raiders and Josh Jacobs. 

As for the Dolphins defense, they’ll have to contend with a unit consisting of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and even Deonte Harty speeding up and down the field. 

It looks like Kader Kohou is moving outside, too, which is intriguing as he’s usually more of a slot corner. It makes sense, though, as Justin Bethel, a slot specialist, enters that role. 

The Dolphins pass rush has been OK this season, but key guys like Bradley Chubb and Christian Wilkins have combined for three sacks and 17 pressures. Chubb will see a lot of Dion Dawkins, who’s played well this season. 

This is certainly going to be an interesting matchup. The Dolphins will need to have some plays made in coverage, seemingly, while the Bills will want to generate pressure on Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa against a somewhat fairly sold interior offensive line, but tackles that include a nicked-up Terron Armstead and average-to-below-average Austin Jackson on the right side. 

Find our three best bets for this game and head to DraftKings Sportsbook to place your bet.

Bills vs. Dolphins Picks & Predictions

Dolphins +2.5 (-102)

While Josh Allen feels like the better quarterback here with his intangibles and massive arm, let’s face it, Tagovailoa is the front-runner for MVP for a reason. He’s completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,024 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s also averaging 10.1 yards per attempt and nearly a 10.0 average depth of target. 

This will certainly be his toughest task yet, especially on the road in this environment, but this offense with head coach Mike McDaniel is perhaps the most trustworthy unit in the NFL. 

On top of AFC East ramifications, a good performance here from Tagovailao might cement his MVP run, as this will likely be the most hostile environment for him and the Dolphins. Thankfully, this game is happening in September as opposed to December. 

If the Dolphins can fend off the pass rush and we see Armstead hang strong, there’s no quarterback in the league you want more right now when kept clean of pressure than Tagovailoa. He’s surgical and should be able to score consistently enough to keep up with the Bills. 

Under 54 (-110)

This game is going to be a test for both offenses. The Dolphins offense and their line will deal with the most incoming pressure they’ve faced all season while Allen faces players on the Dolphins side that have star upside rushing the passer, but also some rock-solid coverage players in Kohou, Bethel, and Jevon Holland operating the safety spot. 

This has all the makings of a 27-24 finish. Don’t expect these offenses to go completely nuclear on one another, as both present defensive talent in ways that could disrupt these star quarterbacks on enough drives to temper the score. 

Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions (-135)

Diggs is averaging more than eight catches per game and 25 on the season this season. He had 10 in Week 1, then seven in Week 2, and eight more in Week 3.

He’s peppered with targets, seeing double digits in Week 1 and 3, and against the Dolphins, he’ll see a lot of Xavien Howard, who’s allowing 72.7% of his targets to be caught. Kohou is more of a slot corner, so, against Diggs, that could also be a mismatch. 

Look for Diggs to have a massive game here, win or lose. 

Head to DraftKings to bet on any of our picks and claim $200 in bonus bets when you sign up. 

*Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Promos

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How to Watch Bills vs. Dolphins

  • Game: Bills vs. Dolphins

  • When: 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday, Oct. 1

  • Where: CBS

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Richard Janvrin

548 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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