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Kicking off the Sunday slate of Week 5 of the NFL season, we have another London-based game with the Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars also played across the pond in Week 4, defeating the Falcons.
With them staying over there and the Bills enduring the international travel, we’ve kept that all in mind as we construct our three best bets for this game.
Below, you’ll find those bets after we’ve reviewed the best NFL betting sites.
Heading into London, the Bills offense has been rolling over the past three weeks, scoring no less than 37 points. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, who put up 23 last week against Atlanta, have struggled to score points, averaging about 16 per game since Week 1.
In terms of overall quarterback play, Lawrence is playing well, but the statistics don’t show it. He’s complying 67.1% of his passes for 945 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. The problem is he’s averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt and an average depth of target of just 7.2 yards.
Those are low numbers for a quarterback with wide receivers like Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley.
He’s had success when he throws 20+ yards downfield, too, complying 53.3% of his passes for 225 yards, and that’s how he’s gotten three of his four touchdowns.
A big problem for the Jaguars is their lack of pressure on the quarterback. They have just one player with double-digit pressures, Josh Allen. Fellow edge rusher and 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker hasn’t played well this season.
Speaking of Josh Allen, the Bills quarterback has played sensationally since Week 1. He’s complying 74.8% of his passes, including two games with 83.8% higher, for 1,048 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions. His yards per attempt is significantly higher at 7.8, tied for fourth in the league among all passers with at least 50 dropbacks.
The Bills will get another pass rusher back in this one, too, with linebacker Von Miller returning.
The Jaguars offensive line will have their work cut out for them in left tackle Cam Robinson’s first game back.
We have our three best bets for this game. Read on and place your bets at DraftKings.
In going up against the Bills, Lawrence will thrive if he gets enough time to throw the ball downfield against this weakened Bills secondary. Without Tre White in the lineup, the Bills are starting Christian Benford and Dane Jackson. They still have Micah Hyde playing safety, but these are beatable cornerbacks for players like Ridley and Kirk.
However, this Jaguars offensive line has some beatable matchups for the Bills, including defensive tackle DaQuan Jones taking on Jaguars center Luke Fortner and right tackle Anton Harrison dealing with Greg Rousseau.
For the Bills, it’s the opposite. The Jaguars cornerbacks, Darious Williams, and Tyson Campbell, have played well this season, but the lack of pressure will allow Allen to make plays regardless of how well the corners have played.
The Jaguars also allowed 127 rushing yards in their last matchup with the Falcons, so we could see running back James Cook get plenty of work here, too.
Between the pressure the Bills will create and the time Allen will have to make plays, we like the Bills to cover here. The Bills are 3-1 ATS this season, while the Jaguars are 2-2.
The Bills offense has been fantastic lately, but we respect the Jaguars and their coverage unit. However, the Jaguars offense has been rather slow over these past few weeks, and against a pass rush like this from the Bills, it makes you wonder how they’ll perform here. Again, if Lawrence can make plays down the field, this game will get a lot more interesting, but we think the Jaguars offense will hold this game back from going over as we think the Bills will still score plenty of points here, but not into the 30s or 40s like they have been the past few weeks.
We project the Bills to win 27-20.
Looking for some plus-line props here, we have Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis.
Above, we mentioned the prowess of the Jaguars cornerbacks, and we think they’ll play a role in holding down secondary options in this Bills offense like Davis.
Davis has caught a touchdown this season in three straight games, but his reception numbers are low. He has 12 on the year but had six in one game, meaning six others are scattered across three games. He had just three catches against the Miami Dolphins last week in a game where they put up 48 points.
Davis will likely see both Campbell and Williams, but perhaps Williams more. Williams has allowed a reception rate of 61.1%, with five pass breakups and one interception. He’s allowed less than three receptions in two of four games this season and three in another.
*Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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