NFL Win Totals Over/Under Predictions: It's Time to Evaluate Projected Win Totals

• The Baltimore Ravens led the NFL in wins in 2023 with 13. 

• 11 teams finished with double-digit wins in 2023. 

• The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers have the highest projected win total at 11.5. 

The 2024 NFL Season is quickly approaching, with offseason activities in full swing and the NFL Draft and the schedule release in the rearview mirror. While we know all of each team's opponents before the schedule release, the order in which these games happen, including where the bye week is slotted, plays a massive role in projecting where teams will finish wins-wise each season, and 2024 is no different. 

In 2023, the Baltimore Ravens led the league in wins with 13, going 13-4. However, they lost in the AFC Championship to the Kansas City Chiefs. 

In addition to the Ravens, ten other teams finished with double-digit wins, and 12 of the 14 playoff teams had double-digit wins. 

With betting on win totals, each team will have a line set and you’ll wager on whether or not that team will surpass that total (over) or fall short (under). 

Learn more about the team wins odds, the projected top and bottom finishers, and more below. 

Let’s explore.

2024 NFL Win Totals Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below and place your bets at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets.
Also, see other NFL Betting Sites for more betting opportunities.

Highest Projected NFL Win Totals

Before you begin wagering on win totals, let’s examine some of the top teams per the odds listed above. 

Kansas City Chiefs - 11.5 Wins (Over -118; Under -104 at FanDuel)

The Chiefs finished 2023 with an 11-6 record and went on to win the Super Bowl. This year, their win total is near that at 11.5.

Looking at their team, they’ve improved mightily on offense, adding wide receiver Marquise Brown via free agency and drafting the speedster and wide receiver Xavier Worthy. They joined an offense with Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashee Rice. 

Rice has had offseason issues, to say the least, and could be looking at a potential suspension. 

One negative for the Chiefs when examining their win total line is that they have a Week 6 bye. I typically prefer teams that have bye weeks later in the year to get that much-needed rest as the season wears on. Sure, there are some over those first five weeks, but a bye week in the double digits would be much better. 

The good news, though, is that they play the NFC South, which will be an easier division this season. They host the Buccaneers, who won the division last year. They also have two games against the Broncos and one against the Panthers. 

So, despite the lousy bye week, the Chiefs are in an excellent position to exceed this number. 

Bet on Kansas City Chiefs at FanDuel 

San Francisco 49ers - 11.5 Wins (Over +116; Under -142 at FanDuel)

The 49ers went 12-5 last season and made it to the Super Bowl but lost to the Chiefs. They’re the only other team with a win total above 11 games. 

In 2024, they have a bye in Week 9 and play the Chiefs and Cowboys right before that. They’ll play the AFC East this year, which includes three competent teams in the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins, but have an easy “layup” in Week 4 against the Patriots. The Jets are a good team, but they’ll host them in Week 1, which puts them in a good spot. 

From Weeks 1 to 8, they’ll play three playoff teams and, in the latter portion of the season, five of them. 

As I was updating this page, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk requested a trade out of town, so if he leaves, they’ll still have Deebo Samuel and rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall.

Thankfully, they still have running back Christian McCaffrey and quarterback Brock Purdy. 

Aiyuk would certainly be a tough loss, but this team will be a top-level team again in 2024. 

Bet on San Francisco 49ers at FanDuel 

Philadelphia Eagles - 10.5 Wins (Over -134; Under +110 at FanDuel)

The Eagles have a Week 5 bye, which will make Weeks 6 to 18 quite a slog. Before the bye, they play the Packers, Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers. The Packers and Falcons will put up a good fight, and they’ll look to beat the Buccaneers after losing to them in the postseason. 

They unfortunately play a tough AFC division this season—the AFC North. All four teams will likely finish above .500, which makes the Eagles schedule that much more difficult, and they all come after their bye week. 

The Eagles did sign A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to long-term deals, and they added running back Saquon Barkley, which will be a massive upgrade to the ground game. 

Heading into the offseason, the concern for the Eagles was the secondary, but they added Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the 2024 NFL Draft. 

This team has a lot of talent, but they have a tough schedule ahead of them. 

Bet on Philadelphia Eagles at FanDuel 

Baltimore Ravens - 10.5 Wins (Over -138; Under +112 at FanDuel)

The Ravens are set up to repeat as the single-season win leader with a Week 14 bye. From Weeks 1 to 13, they’ll play against seven playoff teams, including the Chiefs, Cowboys, Bills, Buccaneers, Steelers, and Eagles. They’ll also play the Bengals twice, who will be a playoff threat with a full season of Burrow. 

After the bye, they’ll take on the Giants, Steelers, Texans, and Browns. These are all winnable games. 

The Ravens offense will have a second season of Zay Flowers, a (hopefully) full season from tight end Mark Andrews, and running back Derrick Henry. 

Henry was second in rushing yards last season, and he and Jackson will form a massive rushing tandem that will challenge opposing defenses. 

They can certainly surpass this win total line.

Bet on Baltimore Ravens at FanDuel 

Buffalo Bills - 10.5 Wins (Over +122; Under -150 at FanDuel)

This line for the Bills is quite surprising given the perception of the team this offseason with wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving town. 

Of course, they still have quarterback Josh Allen, running back James Cook, and a collection of receivers, which will likely be headed up by rookie Keon Coleman. 

The Bills have a Week 12 bye and will play a tough division in the NFC West. 

Allen has a penchant for making plenty of incredible plays but also has moments that can put the team in trouble. 

Based on this offense, it seems that they’ll use the running game more, which should help mitigate those turnover-worthy plays. 

I’m still not sure where I stand with the Bills. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. 

Bet on Bufallo Bills at FanDuel 

Cincinnati Bengals - 10.5 Wins (Over -134; Under +110 at FanDuel)

The Bengals went 9-8 last season, but of course, they were with Burrow for the latter portion of the season due to a wrist injury. Heading into 2024, there are still some rumblings around it, but all signs point to him being OK and ready to go. 

So, I’ll examine this through the lens he’ll be OK. 

The Bengals have a Week 12 bye and still have wide receivers, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. They lost Tyler Boyd but drafted Jermaine Burton. 

They did lose Joe Mixon, which leaves their backfield with some question marks, along with Zack Moss and Chase Brown. 

The defense is also largely unchanged compared to last season. 

Due to finishing last in 2023, they have a handful of easier opponents, including the Patriots, Commanders, Panthers, Giants, Broncos, Raiders, and Titans. Assuming they win all of those games, they just need four more wins against the Chiefs, Ravens (twice), Browns (twice), Eagles, Steelers (twice), Chargers, and Cowboys.

That seems quite possible. 

Bet on Cincinnati Bengals at FanDuel 

Dallas Cowboys - 10.5 Wins (Over +164; Under -205 at FanDuel)

The Cowboys are an interesting team in 2024 that I’m still wrestling with. This team’s running game will rely on Ezekiel Elliott again. He had 184 carries for 642 yards in 2023 with the Patriots, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. 

They also don’t have many receiving options outside of CeeDee Lamb. Sure, they have tight Jake Ferguson and wide receiver Brandin Cooks, but this is far from a top duo or trio. 

Quarterback Dak Prescott also faces numerous questions this season about whether or not he’s the guy following an embarrassing postseason loss to the Packers last year. 

I lean under on the line here because they didn’t improve the offensive line much beyond a project tackle in Tyler Guyton, and the offense makes me hesitate. 

Bet on Dallas Cowboys at FanDuel 

Lowest Projected NFL Win Totals

New England Patriots - 4.5 Wins (Over -150; Under +122 at FanDuel)

The Patriots will have a new head coach for the first time since the Bill Clinton administration. They’ll also have a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye, who’s likely going to sit out the start of the season behind Jacoby Brissett. 

The team drafted two receivers, Javon Baker and Ja’Lynn Polk, but this offense still has a way to go. 

Defensively, they have Jerod Mayo as head coach, who will continue to emphasize that side of the ball. Thankfully, there’s a lot of talent on that side of the ball, but the offense will be tough again. 

The Patriots have a Week 14 bye but have a gauntlet to start the season against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, and Texans over the first six weeks. 

A line of 4.5 wins is low, but the Patriots have a difficult schedule. 

Bet on New England Patriots at FanDuel 

Denver Broncos - 5.5 Wins (Over -102; Under -120 at FanDuel)

The Broncos also have a Week 14 bye and a rookie quarterback. Their rookie is Bo Nix, and he’ll likely start the season ahead of Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham. 

The receivers group lost Jerry Jeudy and now has a starting trio of Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims Jr. 

The backfield consists of Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin, and more. 

There’s a competent head coach at the helm in Sean Payton, but this team will look rough as it rebuilds after Russell Wilson. 

Bet on Denver Broncos at FanDuel 

Carolina Panthers - 5.5 Wins (Over -124; Under +102 at FanDuel)

The Panthers were putrid in 2023, but there’s some hope ahead of the 2024 season. They have a new head coach in Dave Canales, who assisted in facilitating an excellent 2023 campaign for Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield as the team’s offensive coordinator. 

Panthers quarterback Bryce Young looked completely lost in 2023, but Canales should be able to help, but it’s unclear how much. 

The team traded for wide receiver Diontae Johnson, drafted Xavier Legette, and already had Adam Thielen. The running game added Jonathon Brooks in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, who will be a rushing and receiving threat. 

This comes down to Young. Can he do it? I’m not so sure. 

Bet on Carolina Panthers at FanDuel 

Who Will Lead the 2024 NFL Season in Wins

My Pick - Cincinnati Bengals (Over 10.5 Wins -134 at FanDuel)

This is my dark horse pick, but pending Burrow’s health, the Bengals are in a fantastic situation to lead the NFL in wins. There are question marks for the ground game, but Burrow still has Higgins and Chase, and the defense has remained largely the same from 2023 to 2024. 

Because of their last-place finish in the AFC North last year, they have seven games against fellow last-place teams they should take care of. They have ten more games to build from those seven wins. 

Don’t be surprised to see this line go to 11 wins soon. 

Bet on Cincinnati Bengals at FanDuel 

Who Led the League in Wins in 2023?

The Baltimore Ravens went 13-4 in 2023 and led the league in wins. They were one of 11 teams with double-digit wins. They lost in the AFC Championship to the 11-6 Chiefs. 

Highest NFL Single-Season Win Total History

Below, we’ll look at each team that led the NFL in wins from the modern Super Bowl era, which began in 1967. 

It’s important to remember that the number of games per team per season has changed over the years:

• 1967-1977: 14 games

• 1978-1981: 16 games

• 1982: Nine games (strike)

• 1983-1986: 16 games

• 1987: 15 games (strike)

• 1988-1989: 16 games, no bye week

• 1990-1992: 16 games, one bye week

• 1993: 16 games, two bye weeks

• 1994-2000: 16 games, one bye week

• 2001: 16 games, two bye weeks (September 11 attack)

• 2002-2020: 16 games, one bye week

• 2021-Present: 17 games, one bye week

With that understood, let’s look at the single-season win leaders since 1967. 

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on NFL Win Totals Odds

Before you dive into wagering on NFL win totals, we at WSN strongly encourage you to find the best sportsbook for this. When examining the odds, I’d recommend deciding what you want to wager on and letting that guide you to the wager with the most upside. I highly recommend odds shopping if you’re in a state with multiple online sportsbooks. 

Look below to learn more about three of the most well-known online sportsbooks in the industry today: BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook. 

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How to Read NFL Win Totals Odds

When looking at NFL win totals, you’ll wager by looking at the win total line and deciding whether you think the team will exceed or fall short of that. You’ll often see “+” and “-” odds with this. 

Here’s how you can examine these, using $100 as a frame of reference. 

• If you bet on something with “-” odds, you must wager that amount to win $100. If a team is -134, you must wager $134 to win $100. 

• If you bet on something with “+” odds, you’ll win that amount with a $100 wager. If a team is +134, you’ll win $134 with a successful $100 wager.