CFTC Chair Rips States Over Prediction Market Concerns

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has made a major shift in its approach to prediction markets.

New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig wrote an op-ed published by the Wall Street Journal this week. The opinion focused on prediction markets, especially those involving sports. He made his support for the industry clear while ripping states for attempting to fight against it.

“The most common allegation is that these contracts are a form of gambling and therefore subject to state laws,” Selig wrote. “The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products.”

The new CFTC head argued that sports markets comfortably fit under the Commodity Exchange Act, making the current wave of legal challenges invalid. As a result, Selig is submitting briefs in ongoing legislative proceedings against prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

During Selig’s nomination process, he told lawmakers that he believed the courts should decide on the future of sports prediction markets. His sudden change of heart isn’t overly surprising, given the White House’s deep ties to the controversial industry.

Midterms Could Decide Future of Prediction Markets

The fight over prediction markets has been growing fast, with new supporters or opponents continuing to emerge as lawsuits advance. The CFTC's more aggressive stance shifts the odds in the embattled industry’s favor, but things could change come November.

The 2026 US midterm elections are projected to shake up Congress, possibly handing Democrats control of both chambers. A group of 23 Senators from the party recently sent a letter to Selig, calling on him to stay out of the industry fight. Democrats are also introducing legislation to ban predictions in state across the US.

While average voters are focused on far larger issues ahead of the midterms, concerns over the unregulated prediction industry are growing. That will force some Republicans to rethink their support of it as they face desperate battles to remain in office.