PSG vs. Arsenal Prediction: Who Will Reach Champions League Final?

• Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal 1-0 in the first leg of this semi-final

• The Gunners must win at the Parc des Princes to keep their hopes alive

• Will it be PSG or Arsenal in the final of this season’s Champions League?

PSG vs. Arsenal Odds

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PSG vs. Arsenal Pick

Go for a PSG win. The Parisians have done the hard part and they can compete the job this week.

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PSG Still Have Work to Do but Clearly in Pole Position

It is advantage Paris Saint-Germain at the midway point of this Champions League semi-final. Ousmane Dembele scored the only goal of the game in the first leg, turning the ball home via the post with less than four minutes on the clock. A 1-0 victory for Luis Enrique’s men at the Emirates Stadium means they are the favorites to reach the final.

It is worth reflecting on how far PSG have come. Not many people expected them to be in this position after three-quarters of the league phase. Back then PSG were 25th in the 36-team table, with only the top 24 going through. An early exit for the French champions was a distinct possibility at that point.

Instead, PSG won their final three games to secure a play-off spot. After beating Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 they battered Manchester City in a 4-2 win at the Parc des Princes, then eased past Stuttgart 4-1 on matchday eight. PSG maintained that momentum beyond the league phase, demolishing Ligue 1 rivals Brest 10-0.

It was tighter against Liverpool, with PSG advancing on penalties, but they were clearly the better team over two legs. Luis Enrique’s team then beat Aston Villa to set up this tie with Arsenal, the first installment of which went their way. PSG fans are now daring to dream of a maiden Champions League triumph.

"Mission accomplished this evening,” Luis Enrique said after the victory in north London. “Our sole objective is to win the second leg at home as well. 

“With Arsenal, we cannot let our guard down and be complacent. This is a team who can completely rewrite history in one second and we'll be back to square one. Nothing is in the bag yet, as they'll have nothing to lose.”

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Arsenal Need to Dig Deep and Produce Signature Performance

Arsenal had their moments in the first leg, but they were unable to find an equaliser after going behind early. That was a blow for Mikel Arteta’s men, who would have liked to have an aggregate lead to take to Paris. Instead, Arsenal must win at the Parc des Princes to keep their dreams of a first Champions League trophy alive.

The Gunners have been more consistent than PSG throughout the competition. They finished in the top eight in the league phase, then breezed past Club Brugge in the last 16. Their most eye-catching result came in the quarters, as Arsenal beat Real Madrid home and away to set up this meeting with PSG.

Liverpool have already been crowned Premier League champions, so Arsenal have nothing to play for domestically. Still, a 2-1 home defeat by Bournemouth on Saturday was hardly ideal preparation for this game. True, PSG also lost at the weekend, but they have already achieved their aims in Ligue 1. 

“It didn't create the right momentum, positive momentum,” Arteta said following the Bournemouth loss at the Emirates. “It certainly creates a lot of anger, frustration, rage, disappointment. And let's use all of that for Wednesday. That's what we have to do.”

Arsenal should not be written off. They turned in a disciplined display at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu to beat Madrid 2-1 last month. They are a smart, adaptable team under Arteta. However, it goes without saying that Arsenal are now the underdogs in this tie. 

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PSG Can Break Arsenal Hearts and Reach a Second Final

PSG hosted Girona on matchday one of this competition. They were the better team yet their performance was unconvincing overall, and they relied on an own goal in the 90th minute to emerge victorious. They have come a long way since then.

Ever since that 4-2 defeat of Manchester City in January, PSG have been magnificent at home in Europe. They were astonishingly superior to Liverpool in the round of 16, yet somehow lost 1-0 in one of the greatest smash-and-grabs in Champions League history. In the next round, Aston Villa succumbed to a 3-1 loss at the home of the Parisians.

Arsenal will struggle to impose themselves on this match. That is not necessarily a problem as they can be dangerous in transition, but that is not their natural game. The Gunners are generally solid at the back and they will need to be if they are to have any sort of success on Wednesday.

On balance, though, we favor PSG to come out on top. They have an ability to overwhelm visitors to the Parc des Princes, as we have seen over the last few months. They are exhilarating in attack and can control games via their tidy, technical midfield trio. Defensive question marks persist, but overall this is a fine PSG team.

PSG can complete the job by doing the double over Arsenal. Go for a home win in the Champions League on Wednesday.

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How to Watch PSG vs. Arsenal

• Teams: PSG vs. Arsenal

• Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France

• Date and Time: Wednesday, 7 May 2025, 15:00 PM ET 

• How to Watch: CBS